Back in 2009, Ohio State lost to USC at home 18-15. People were going off the deep end talking about how the shine had worn off Tress and he needed to pack his bags. I wrote a piece on who would you prefer to replace Tress with... here's what I had to say about Meyer, in the context of Tress' losing "big games" As it happens, Meyer's losses at Ohio State aren't all that surprising as compared to his historical performance:
Urban Meyer
Let's look at another guy who there's little question is at the top of the current "who's the best coach" list. He's won two titles at Florida in two chances. He's running an exciting offense, and even the defense is stout. Making matters even better for Buckeye fans, Meyer has Ohio ties and might actually give some serious consideration to the job, though I'm dubious that he'd take it. In any case, there's little question those calling for Tressel's head, if they're not thinking about Pete Carrol, are thinking about Urban Meyer.
Date........Rk..Team........Rec...Score...Rk...Tea m.......Score
09-27-2008..NR..Ole Miss...(9-4)....31....#4...Florida.....30
01-01-2008..NR..Michigan...(9-4)....41....#12..Florida.....35
10-27-2007.#18..Georgia...(11-2)....42....#11..Florida.....30
10-06-2007..#1..LSU.......(12-2)....28.....#9..Florida.....24
09-29-2007..NR..Auburn.....(9-4)....20.....#4..Florida.....17
10-14-2006.#11..Auburn....(11-2)....27.....#2..Florida.....17
11-12-2005..NR..South Car..(7-5)....30....#12..Florida.....22
10-15-2005.#10..LSU.......(11-2)....21....#11..Florida.....17
10-01-2005.#15..Alabama...(10-2)....31.....#5..Florida......3
10-25-2003..NR..New Mexico.(8-5)....47....#24..Utah........35
09-06-2003..NR..Texas A&M..(4-8)....26.....NR..Utah........26
11-30-2002..NR..Toledo.....(9-5)....42.....NR..BGSU........24
11-16-2002..NR..South Fl...(9-2)....29.....NR..BGSU.........7
11-09-2002..NR..N. Ill.....(8-4)....26....#20..BGSU........17
Total Losses: 14 (Florida only: 7)
Losses to Top 5 team: 1 (Florida only: 1)
Losses to Top 25 team: 5 (Florida only: 5)
Losses to Unranked Team: 9 (Florida only: 4)
Losses to Unranked Team when Ranked: 6 (Florida only: 4)
Losses to Unranked Team when Ranked in Top 10: 2 (Florida only: 2)
Losses to Unranked Team when Ranked in Top 5: 2 (Florida only: 2)
Losses to team with losing record: 1 (Florida only: 0)
Observations:
Meyer's got one less loss since 2002 than does Tressel. Meyer is also 12 years younger than Tressel, suggesting that he'd be available to coach a good long while. There's not much argument that he's been successful at the highest level in as much as he's the only guy with two Crystal footballs on his mantle. Ohio State, should it ever succeed in gaining Meyer's coaching services could surely do much, much, MUCH worse.
But, here we see again, the propensity to loose game he shouldn't. 64% of all Meyer losses come to unranked opponents, a trend only slightly more improved at Florida, 57%. Only 1 of the teams he's lost to was rated in the top 5. One. As with Carrol, it is again noted that big game successes are not evaluated here, but it looks like Florida fans have the likelihood to have the rug swept out from under them by some "unknown" and I'm not sure that's a whole lot easier to deal with than losing to the #3 team in the country 18-15.
I see an "embarrassing loss" up there as well, 31-3 #15 Alabama over #5 Florida, and a loss to a 4-8 team while at Utah. But again, that loss to Bama came years ago and has, no doubt, been erased from memory considering the 2 crystal footballs, and Florida fans have no need to think about the Utah TAMU game. One has to wonder also how Meyer benefited from the SEC Championship game in 2006, which he entered at #4 behind USC and Michigan. Consider also that Michigan had already lost to #1 Ohio State (USC dropped the game mentioned above to UCLA) Without the SEC Championship, does Florida qualify? Hard to say.
In any case, Buckeye fans, is losing "big games" really so bad? Would it be better if Ohio State beat USC and then lost to Illinois, ending your hopes of a Title anyway? Remember 1995? Ohio State beat two highly rated teams in Notre Dame and Penn State - back to back - and still tanked against a 9-4 Michigan. How'd that feel? Want that back?
Let's not also forget, Meyer wouldn't bring with him the "SEC Hype" and thus one loss at Ohio State doesn't keep you in the championship hunt the same way it might be "OK" in the SEC.
Now, all that said, Meyer is probably the most "sound" choice as a guy to replace Tressel. He's young, he's good, he's proven he can be (is) successful, and he even knows what football in Ohio is like having been at Bowling Green State University. I'm just not sure he's materially different than Jim Tressel. While he certainly would bring some good, there's some bad up there too. I must note, again, however, big game successes might significantly offset those blemishes - particularly in Meyer's case.