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(unofficial) Rose Bowl thread - USC vs. Texas (merged)

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1/2/06

Leinart has shot to make history with three-peat

Monday, January 02, 2006
John Henderson
THE DENVER POST
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</IMG> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=credit width=200>PAUL SAKUMA | ASSOCIATED PRESS </TD></TR><TR><TD class=cutline width=200>Matt Leinart’s experience gives USC an edge other teams trying for the three-peat didn’t enjoy. </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>
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LOS ANGELES — Poor Scott Frost got thrown to the wolves — or Sun Devils, which might have been worse. Thomas Lott had never started a game, and neither had Don Jacobs. Kenny Stabler certainly deserved a better fate. And who in the world had ever heard of Carl Dodd?
Some names are obscure; some are famous. There are nine in all, and they have one thing in common: They were first-year starting quarterbacks — or ones who were taking sole possession of the job — and they were charged with leading their college team to a third straight national title.
They all failed.
No school has won three in a row. Since the Associated Press started its poll in 1936, teams have won back-to-back national titles 10 times. None has won a third. Eight of the 10 essentially had a first-year starter, and only two returned a starting quarterback for his third year.
One was Bill Garnaas of Minnesota in 1942.
The other?
Matt Leinart of Southern California.
If the Trojans make history Wednesday by beating No. 2 Texas (12-0) in the Rose Bowl for their third consecutive national title, a highlight-reel run by Reggie Bush might be the reason they win the game. Or it could be an interception by Darnell Bing.
But Leinart will be the reason for history. He is the one common denominator, the rare thread that stretches across three seasons.
"The thing that USC has going for them is they’ve had the same quarterback for three years," ex-Nebraska coach Tom Osborne said.
He knows from experience the difference an experienced quarterback can make. Osborne was an assistant on a Cornhuskers team that was coming off national titles in 1970 and ’71, and they opened the 1972 season with a 20-17 loss at UCLA. The quarterback was David Humm, who replaced Jerry Tagge.
In 1996, Osborne took his two-time defending national champs to Arizona State for their second game of the season and got throttled 19-0. Starting was Frost, a transfer from Stanford trying to replace the dynamic Tommie Frazier.
"Any time you break in a new quarterback, even if everything else is in place, odds are pretty good you’ll lose one or two," Osborne said.
Imagine how Barry Switzer felt going into the Texas game in 1976. The Sooners had won the previous two national titles, but three-year quarterback Steve Davis was gone. In came Lott, who was raw and untested that day.
Oklahoma tied Texas 6-6 after a botched extra-point attempt, and three-peat hopes were dashed. "It was a horrible, terrible, atrocious offensive football game," Switzer said.
Even the greatest dynasty in history — possibly until Wednesday — couldn’t withstand a new quarterback. Oklahoma won 47 straight games, including titles in 1955 and 1956, mostly with Jim Harris at quarterback. Then Dodd stumbled in a 7-0 loss to Notre Dame.
With USC, Leinart not only brings talent but experience and health. He hasn’t missed a game in three years. Garnaas, meanwhile, was hurt most of the 1942 season and Minnesota slumped to 5-4.
It also doesn’t help dynasties when college football champions are decided by pollsters who can be fickle and biased. In 1966, Alabama was coming off back-to-back titles, started the year No. 1, went 11-0, shut out its last four opponents in the regular season and then drilled Nebraska 34-7 in the Sugar Bowl.
And finished third.
Notre Dame and Michigan State, which tied 10-10 in the season finale, finished first and second, respectively. Stabler, in his first year, has the infamous tag of being the quarterback on an unbeaten, untied team that ended Alabama’s string of national titles.
There shouldn’t be any such tag on Leinart if he defeats the Longhorns, who are seven-point underdogs. Most are predicting that Texas will give USC a better game than Oklahoma did last year or Michigan did the year before. "They have a legitimate chance because if you look at the numbers, USC is the better offensive team, but Texas maybe has a little edge on defense," Osborne said. "In a game like this, say Texas slows down ’SC pretty good, then they’ve got an excellent chance."
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I mistakenly started a thread entitled The National Championship and am picking up the discussion here per the moderator.

Even though Ohio State is obviously much better now than when we played Texas... some of the credit for their victory has to go to the Texas defense. Has USC seen anything like their front seven? Of course my opinon could change tomorrow, but as I sit here today I think the best two teams are OSU and Texas.
 
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Cleveland PD

1/4

ROSE BOWL



Lone star no longer



Wednesday, January 04, 2006 Doug Lesmerises

Plain Dealer Reporter
Los Angeles- Ohio State never forgot about Texas this season, not for a day. But the Longhorns that the Buckeyes remember from their 25-22 loss in Ohio Stadium on Sept. 10 don't look exactly like the Texas team that's facing USC in the national championship game in the Rose Bowl tonight.
In September, Ohio State was introduced to Vince Young's abilities as a passer as he threw for 270 yards and tossed the game-winning 24-yard touchdown pass with 2:37 to play.
"You can't underestimate Vince Young's throwing ability," Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Heacock said in the run-up to the Buckeyes' win in the Fiesta Bowl. "He ended up having a good game throwing against us, and we felt we had to stop him from throwing."
But the Buckeyes did clamp down on the Texas rushing game, limiting their running backs to 39 yards on 17 carries while Young ran 20 times for 76 yards. Young obviously had an All-American season, but it's the rest of the Texas running game that might be unrecognizable to Ohio State fans tonight.
Alternating between 6-0, 215-pound Selvin Young, 6-1, 190-pound Jamaal Charles, 5-11, 195-pound Raymonce Taylor and 6-3, 270-pound Henry Melton, and with Young still occasionally running wild, Texas averaged 275 rushing yards per game in its 10 games after victory over Ohio State. The Longhorns are the second-best rushing team in the country, a fact often lost in the talk of Young and whether USC's offense is the best ever.
Injuries to the others forced Taylor to switch from receiver to running back late in the year. But they're all healthy for the Rose Bowl, especially Charles, who hasn't had a 100-yard rushing game since hurting his ankle in the fifth game against Oklahoma.
"[Charles] gave us the 80-yard run in the Oklahoma game," Texas coach Mack Brown said, "and SC is so fast, we need fast guys trying to match their speed on the field. Slow guys are not going to do so well. The slow guys will be with me."
To reach this Plain Dealer reporter:
[email protected], 216-999-4748
 
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1/4/06

Rarely has a battle of No. 1-vs.-2 pitted explosive teams like these
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
Clark Spencer
THE MIAMI HERALD
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</IMG> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=cutline width=200>Quarterback Vince Young led Texas to a 12-0 record. He passed for 2,769 yards and 26 touchdowns. He also rushed for 850 yards and nine touchdowns. </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>
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</IMG> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=cutline width=200>Quarterback Matt Leinart led Southern Cal to a 12-0 record. He passed for 3,450 yards and 27 touchdowns. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2004. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


PASADENA, Calif. — It’s King Kong vs. Godzilla. It’s Hertz vs. Avis. It’s California pixie dust vs. Texas rawhide. It’s a Lawrence Welk special. All together now: a-one-anatwo.
No. 1 Southern California vs. No. 2 Texas in the Rose Bowl tonight is for the national championship. But it could stand out among all of the title games that have come before it, carrying all the trappings of a shootout for the ages.
"There are no matchups like this," USC coach Pete Carroll said. "This is rare." The Trojans are riding a 34-game win streak and gunning for an unprecedented third straight Associated Press poll championship and second straight Bowl Championship Series title (LSU won the BCS title and USC won the AP poll title in 2003, while USC won both in 2004). The Longhorns have won their past 19 games. And both teams are 12-0, marking just the eighth title showdown of the two top-ranked teams when both entered without a loss or tie. "To win like we both have and to be undefeated to get on this stage is just huge," USC defensive end Frostee Rucker said.
Never, until now, have the top two teams in the preseason polls remained atop the pack and ended up 1-2.
"This is a great game for college football," Texas coach Mack Brown said. "It’s a game that every college football fan will watch, and because of that, I think everyone has really embraced it. This isn’t a week for a weak guy. You’d better walk with a swagger."
No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdowns aren’t common, but neither are they rare.
Starting with Notre Dame’s 1943 win against Michigan, there have been 35 previous 1-versus-2 clashes. Of those, 15 occurred in postseason bowls, including last year’s Orange when the Trojans obliterated Oklahoma 55-19.
Notre Dame has participated in the most 1-2 battles (nine), but teams from the Sunshine State — either Miami, Florida State or Florida — have taken part in nine of the previous 10 collisions of top-ranked heavyweights.
Texas is 3-0 in such contests but hasn’t played in one since 1969. Southern Cal is 3-2 in 1-versus-2 duels, one of those being a 42-37 victory against second-ranked Wisconsin in the 1963 Rose Bowl.
Plenty of stars have made names in college football’s ultimate test, but not all have come out winners. Quarterback Roger Staubach and second-ranked Navy came up short to the topranked Longhorns in the 1964 Cotton Bowl, and running back O.J. Simpson couldn’t get the No. 2 Trojans past No. 1 Ohio State in the 1969 Rose.
But some star is certain to shine tonight.
That’s because the nationaltitle stage spotlights the top three finishers in this season’s Heisman balloting. Trojans running back Reggie Bush received the most votes, leaving Longhorns quarterback Vince Young and USC quarterback Matt Leinart (last season’s Heisman winner) looking up.
With so much firepower in one place, it’s no wonder most are expecting a high-scoring contest. Texas and USC each averaged at least 50 points in their 12 victories, and the two combined to average more than 1,100 yards in total offense.
Those numbers have even players and coaches on the two teams shaking their heads.
"You don’t see numbers like that other than video games," Carroll said.
"Watching the game film of USC is like watching a highlight tape," Texas linebacker Aaron Babino said. "Watching Reggie Bush running over people, Matt Leinart squeezing through holes, tight ends dragging, and the guards — oh, my God — taking linebackers and just throwing them 15, 10 yards back . . . Looking at them it’s like, ‘This is a team?’ Man, I see why they’re No. 1 in the nation."
That’s not to say the respect isn’t mutual.
The Longhorns have their admirers on the Trojans, too.
"These are two historic offenses," Carroll said. "There are so many explosive players on both teams."
Alas, one has to lose.
Each survived a scare during the regular season, with the Trojans squeaking past Notre Dame and the Longhorns barely edging Ohio State. But most of their outcomes were lopsided, such as the 70-3 walloping Texas laid on Colorado in the Big 12 championship game.
Carroll said it wasn’t until he saw that score that the magnitude of USC-Texas hit him.
"You kind of heard the rumble of it," he said.
His counterpart, Brown, said the Rose is the game everyone’s been waiting for all season.
"To think they’ve won 34 in a row is just unbelievable," Texas offensive coordinator Greg Davis said of USC.
If the Trojans stretch it to 35, they will go down as the first team to record national titles back-to-back-to-back. "I think it’s a fair statement that we could possibly go down as one of the greatest offenses, greatest teams in college football ever," Bush said. "But we can’t worry about the possible history going into this game."
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DBB's Statistical Breakdown - mNC Style

Here is the differential statistical breakdown on the Rose Bowl.

Method I:

Taking each team's average offense (yards and points), and subtracting the amount that the other team's defense holds their opponent below those numbers:
________________________________Yards______Points
Texas Average Offense_____________508.42______50.92
USC Differential Defense_____________86.19______11.32
Expected Texas Output_____________422.23______39.59

________________________________Yards______Points
USC Average Offense______________580.25_______50.00
Texas Differential Defense__________104.84_______13.59
Expected USC Output______________475.41_______36.41


METHOD I PREDICTION

TEXAS____40 points___422 yards
USC______36 points___475 yards
​
Method II:

Now let's take each team's average defense (yards and points), and add the amount that the other team's offense gains over and above their opponents' average numbers:
________________________________Yards______Points
USC Average Defense______________344.67______21.33
Texas Differential Offense___________161.05______27.12
Expected Texas Output_____________505.71______48.45

________________________________Yards______Points
Texas Average Defense_____________280.33______14.58
USC Differential Offense____________ 194.61______24.52
Expected USC Output______________474.94______39.10

METHOD II PREDICTION

TEXAS____48 points___506 yards
USC______39 points___475 yards


​
I did this type of analysis for every bowl game, and the largest aberrations in actual outcome came in bowls where one team was largely expected by the media to dominate the other. In those games, despite what the numbers said, the lightly regarded team outperformed the numbers. Examples are FSU vs. PSU, Utah vs. Georgia Tech, Nebraska vs. Michigan and Oklahoma vs. Oregon. The one exception to this was in the Peach Bowl, but that aberration was simply due to the fact that Miami sucks.

The upshot here (to me anyway) is that we have a game where the statistical analysis favors Texas, and the most important (IMHO) intangible favors Texas.

Yeah, I think Texas is the choice here.

I chose 45-41 Texas in Zurp's contest because I was giving USC credit for playing a home game. With the experience of watching how the "disrespect" factor affected the other bowl games, I have to lean even more toward Texas.

Either way, this should be a great game. Wish we were there.
 
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I used the same method to predict 34-23 for the Fiesta Bowl.

I missed ND's output by 3 points.

Wasn't that close with all the bowls, but like I said; the common factor among 4 of the 5 big aberrations was the "disrespect" factor. Texas has that to a point. Not nearly as much as the 02 Buckeyes, but enough that I expect you to win.
 
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Texas might get a little more respect than tOSU did in 02 but some how usc has managed to bury that miami team.(i never thought that was possible) They just ran a friggin 10 part series discussing sc's greatness. That was an all new level
 
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High Lonesome said:
Texas might get a little more respect than tOSU did in 02 but some how usc has managed to bury that miami team.(i never thought that was possible) They just ran a friggin 10 part series discussing sc's greatness. That was an all new level
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I just cant see you guys getting more respect than our team IMO. Every media person in the country predicted a blowout by Miami. Most picked them to win by more than 14 points and we were even called "slow" compared to the home grown Florida talent. Their players ripped us apart including "The Warrior" I have not heard any of this about Texas. SC should have a ton of respect for you guys tonight. They have the offense but you guys have the defense, which is where you guys have the advantage. I believe you lose tonight because Mack Brown cannot win the big game. Back when Oklahoma had as much talent as you guys, Brown could never win the game. Tonight, you go up against one of teh best coaches(if not the best) in the game who will have his troops ready and fired up to win. I believe that will be the biggest factor in the game IMO.
 
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illinoisbuckeye said:
I just cant see you guys getting more respect than our team IMO. Every media person in the country predicted a blowout by Miami. Most picked them to win by more than 14 points and we were even called "slow" compared to the home grown Florida talent. Their players ripped us apart including "The Warrior" I have not heard any of this about Texas. SC should have a ton of respect for you guys tonight. They have the offense but you guys have the defense, which is where you guys have the advantage. I believe you lose tonight because Mack Brown cannot win the big game. Back when Oklahoma had as much talent as you guys, Brown could never win the game. Tonight, you go up against one of teh best coaches(if not the best) in the game who will have his troops ready and fired up to win. I believe that will be the biggest factor in the game IMO.
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Might want to reread this whole conversation. I am saying that you guys were even more disrespected than we were. i can only assume thats what you mean by this statement,"Most picked them to win by more than 14 points and we were even called "slow" compared to the home grown Florida talent." allthough you said otherwise, "I just cant see you guys getting more respect than our team IMO." I am not sure that the big game thing still applies but you are certainly allowed to have your opinion. I would be willing to bet that there is more than one poster on here that would call the victory in the shoe a big game...but maybe not.
 
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