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Well, we're doing quite well in turnover margin so far. We are tied for 5th in Div I-A in lost turnovers with 2, and tied for 6th in turnovers gained with 6, giving us a turnover margin of +4 (tied for 12th at +1.33 per game).
 
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The defense looks more aggressive at this point of the season than did last year's, should we should continue to get more take-aways than last year. And with Troy Smith being so improved as a passer, both in accuracy and in his reads, our give-aways should continue to be low.
 
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The result of a recent game made me wonder how often this season a team won the game in spite of losing the turnover margin by 3. Here is what I found.

Number of games this season involving at least one Div. IA team: 743

Number of games in which the turnover margin was 3 or higher: 133

Number of times the team -3 or worse in turnovers won the game: 24




Teams that lost in spite of +4 in turnover margin:
  • UCF to Florida
  • Syracuse to Iowa
  • William & Mary to Maryland
  • Louisiana Monroe to Middle Tennessee State
  • Michigan State (of course) to Penn State
BCS Teams with a winning record that lost in spite of +3 in turnover margin:
(AP/Coaches/Harris/BCS)
  • Texas Tech (unranked) to Oklahoma
  • Tennessee (17/19/18/16) to LSU
  • Oklahoma (8/10/11/12) to Oregon *cough*replay*cough*
  • TSUN(3/3/3/3) to The Ohio State University
How many teams could have spotted TSUN 3 turnovers and still beaten them?
 
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That turnover margin is why Mich better wait till Nov 2007 for their rematch...there is no way Mich would be +3 in Glendale..and there is nothing to be gained in getting their ass handed to them by Troy JT and the Bucks inthe NC game.
 
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Effect of Turnover Margin for the 2006 Regular Season
CCGs and Bowls not included​
In order to find the effect of turnover margin on the chance of winning a game, I chose to count the number of times each Div. IA team LOST the turnover margin by 1, 2 and 3 or more. This method automatically factors out any game where a Div. IA team played a I-AA team and WON the turnover margin.

Lost T.O.M. by:___# of times___# of wins___winning %
_____________1:______264__________101______38.26%
_____________2:______141___________40______28.37%
_____3 or more:______133___________24______18.05%


So in College Football, it looks like each successive turnover costs you a 10% chance of winning. I would have thought the effect would be greater, but in post-analysis one can surmise that there is sufficient talent disparity between the haves (JT) and the have-nots (LC) that turnover margin is overcome by sheer superiority much of the time.
 
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