turnover margin

[BuckeyeInTheBoro]

http://home.hawaii.rr.com/mililanibuckeye/bigfart.wav

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Well, we're doing quite well in turnover margin so far. We are tied for 5th in Div I-A in lost turnovers with 2, and tied for 6th in turnovers gained with 6, giving us a turnover margin of +4 (tied for 12th at +1.33 per game).

 

[Fungo Squiggly]

And both giveaways were in garbage time. We have yet to commit a turnover at a meaningful time in a game.

 

[BuckeyeNation27]

Should only have 1 lost turnover. Zwick was down

 

[Hubbard]

Should only have 1 lost turnover. Zwick was down

Damn straight he was, I wanted a challenge!

 

[scooter1369]

Holy Archaic Threads, Batman.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

The defense looks more aggressive at this point of the season than did last year's, should we should continue to get more take-aways than last year. And with Troy Smith being so improved as a passer, both in accuracy and in his reads, our give-aways should continue to be low.

 

[ytownbuckeye]

nice to see the defense making big plays again creating momentum for the buckeyes

 

[daddyphatsacs]

Pressure along the front 4 creates turnovers, it's pretty apparant that our d line is holding up their end of the bargain.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Pressure along the front 4 creates turnovers, it's pretty apparant that our d line is holding up their end of the bargain.

True. Pitcock was just man-handling the UC double-team...

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

The result of a recent game made me wonder how often this season a team won the game in spite of losing the turnover margin by 3. Here is what I found.

Number of games this season involving at least one Div. IA team: 743

Number of games in which the turnover margin was 3 or higher: 133

Number of times the team -3 or worse in turnovers won the game: 24




Teams that lost in spite of +4 in turnover margin:

• UCF to Florida
• Syracuse to Iowa
• William & Mary to Maryland
• Louisiana Monroe to Middle Tennessee State
• Michigan State (of course) to Penn State

BCS Teams with a winning record that lost in spite of +3 in turnover margin:
(AP/Coaches/Harris/BCS)

• Texas Tech (unranked) to Oklahoma
• Tennessee (17/19/18/16) to LSU
• Oklahoma (8/10/11/12) to Oregon *cough*replay*cough*
• TSUN(3/3/3/3) to The Ohio State University

How many teams could have spotted TSUN 3 turnovers and still beaten them?

 

[TooTall]

How many teams could have spotted TSUN 3 turnovers and still beaten them?

1


:osu2: :osu3:

 

[Onebuckfan]

That turnover margin is why Mich better wait till Nov 2007 for their rematch...there is no way Mich would be +3 in Glendale..and there is nothing to be gained in getting their ass handed to them by Troy JT and the Bucks inthe NC game.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Effect of Turnover Margin for the 2006 Regular Season

CCGs and Bowls not included​

In order to find the effect of turnover margin on the chance of winning a game, I chose to count the number of times each Div. IA team LOST the turnover margin by 1, 2 and 3 or more. This method automatically factors out any game where a Div. IA team played a I-AA team and WON the turnover margin.

Lost T.O.M. by:___# of times___# of wins___winning %
_____________1:______264__________101______38.26%
_____________2:______141___________40______28.37%
_____3 or more:______133___________24______18.05%


So in College Football, it looks like each successive turnover costs you a 10% chance of winning. I would have thought the effect would be greater, but in post-analysis one can surmise that there is sufficient talent disparity between the haves (JT) and the have-nots (LC) that turnover margin is overcome by sheer superiority much of the time.

 

[bkochmc]

Nice work DaddyBigBucks... it's interesting to see those stats