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ttun Shenanigans, Arguments, and Emasculated Cucks (2019 thread)

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Buckeyeskickbuttocks said:
I did a quick comparison using just Ohio State's defense since 2015 to see if doing so could provide any insights into what the scUM data is...

Since 2015 Ohio State has played 13 opponents ranked in the top 10 and has a record of 10-3. Losses are MSU 2015, Clemson 2016, and OU 2017.

Against all teams in that time Ohio State has yielded 17.6 points per game. Against just top 10 teams, Ohio State gives up 24.2, a difference of about a touchdown (scUM's difference was 16 points). Against non top 10 teams, Ohio State has given up an average of 15.9 points per game. That is just 2 points less their every game average and is only a touchdown and field goal less than how Ohio State plays top ten competition (scUM's differential was 3 touchdowns)

Against all teams Ohio State has had the ball thrown on them as follows: 16.8 completions on 31.9 attempts (52.6%) for 192.9 yards per game. In that time (2015 through Northwestern) Ohio State has yielded 62 scores and picked off 67 passes. Against top ten teams, Ohio State has had the following production against: 20.5 of 35.6 (57.7%) for 247.1 yards. The Buckeyes have given up 18 scores through the air and grabbed 13 picks. Against non top 10 teams, Ohio State yields 178.2 yards of 15.7 of 30.8 (51.0%) with 44 scores against and 54 picks. Contrasting this with Michigan's numbers above, it would seem that their pass D is less affected by top ten teams, as the Buckeyes give up about 70 yards more per game against top 10 teams than they do against non top ten teams, whereas Michigan's differential was about 50 yards. It should be noted, however, that Ohio State is facing about 10 extra passes a game than their scUM counterparts in top 10 match-ups. I believe this is because Ohio State often leads, which encourages teams to throw the ball to catch up, whereas scUM is not playing so far ahead that teams are so forced.

Against the run since 2015 Ohio State has faced an average of 36.1 attempts for 125.6 yards. They have given up 58 TDs and recovered 43 fumbles. Against top 10 teams, Ohio State faces 38.8 attempts and yields 134.0 per game. In both instances, Ohio State yields 3.5 yards per carry, on average. (Michigan's YPC against for all games was 3.5 as well, but against top 10 teams jumps to 4.9 per carry). Against non top ten teams Ohio State faces 35.4 runs a game to the tune of 123.3 yards per. That is also a 3.5 yard average (scUM's per carry average v. non top ten teams was 3.1). All in all, Ohio State's rush D is what it is. The level of competition doesn't seem to make all that much of a difference. Ohio State, again, yields about 9 more yards per game to top ten teams than normal, and just 11 more to top ten teams than to non top ten. scUM, as above, was some 80 yards worse against top 10 teams.

Against all teams Ohio State yields 318.4 yards on 68 plays, or 4.7 yards per play across the 61 games considered. Against top ten competition, Ohio State has given up 381.1 yards on 74.4 plays, or 5.1 yards per play. Against non top ten, Ohio State yields 301.5 yards on 66.3 plays, which is 4.6 yards per play. Thus, Ohio State yields 60 more yards a game to top 10 teams than they do all teams, and 80 more yards than they do against non top 10 teams. Michigan's defense, by contrast, gives up about 110 more yards to top ten teams than they do to anyone, and 132 or so more than they do against non top ten teams.

By and large, Ohio State's defense is about the same, game to game, regardless of the level of competition. The Buckeyes ordinarily yield about a half yard more to top ten teams per attempt, while scum, again, gives up almost 2 yards more, per play when the competition steps up.

Ohio State's worst 4 games, in terms of yards per play:

2017 - Oklahoma 6.8 yards per play to the tune of 31 points.
2018 - Pedophile State 6.5 yards per play to the tune of 38 points - good enough for second place on the field that particular day
2016 - Wisconsin 6.1 yards per play to the tune of 23 points - also a loss
2015- Notre Dame 5.8 yards per play to the tune of 28 points - hey, look, another loss.
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Thanks for doing all that work. What it suggests to me is what we all know but the people who get paid to analyze or comment on college football can't seem to figure out: That scUM's rosters, for the most part, are not composed of elite talent. So when they struggle against top competition, it's because they'e outclassed. When OSU struggles on D, it's more a matter of poor coaching or just a random blah day that can come against anyone, not necessarily just a good team.
 
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Jagdaddy said:
Thanks for doing all that work. What it suggests to me is what we all know but the people who get paid to analyze or comment on college football can't seem to figure out: That scUM's rosters, for the most part, are not composed of elite talent. So when they struggle against top competition, it's because they'e outclassed. When OSU struggles on D, it's more a matter of poor coaching or just a random blah day that can come against anyone, not necessarily just a good team.
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I think another interesting analysis would be to evaluate how Doctor Blitz's defenses fare against awful teams (ie Rutgers) and what those results do to the overall data. My sense of it is that scUM's biggest successes come against the truly dreadful teams. That's to be expected, of course, but I guess what I'm driving at is that scUM is dominant against the truly bad, as they should be, but then is not dominant, though still good, against the more middling teams. My guess is Ohio State, by contrast, is equally suffocating against the Rutgers' of the world, but is probably more dominant than scUM against, say, the Minnesota's of the world. I could be wrong, but that's my hunch.
 
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Buckeyeskickbuttocks said:
I did a quick comparison using just Ohio State's defense since 2015 to see if doing so could provide any insights into what the scUM data is...

Since 2015 Ohio State has played 13 opponents ranked in the top 10 and has a record of 10-3. Losses are MSU 2015, Clemson 2016, and OU 2017.

Against all teams in that time Ohio State has yielded 17.6 points per game. Against just top 10 teams, Ohio State gives up 24.2, a difference of about a touchdown (scUM's difference was 16 points). Against non top 10 teams, Ohio State has given up an average of 15.9 points per game. That is just 2 points less their every game average and is only a touchdown and field goal less than how Ohio State plays top ten competition (scUM's differential was 3 touchdowns)

Against all teams Ohio State has had the ball thrown on them as follows: 16.8 completions on 31.9 attempts (52.6%) for 192.9 yards per game. In that time (2015 through Northwestern) Ohio State has yielded 62 scores and picked off 67 passes. Against top ten teams, Ohio State has had the following production against: 20.5 of 35.6 (57.7%) for 247.1 yards. The Buckeyes have given up 18 scores through the air and grabbed 13 picks. Against non top 10 teams, Ohio State yields 178.2 yards of 15.7 of 30.8 (51.0%) with 44 scores against and 54 picks. Contrasting this with Michigan's numbers above, it would seem that their pass D is less affected by top ten teams, as the Buckeyes give up about 70 yards more per game against top 10 teams than they do against non top ten teams, whereas Michigan's differential was about 50 yards. It should be noted, however, that Ohio State is facing about 10 extra passes a game than their scUM counterparts in top 10 match-ups. I believe this is because Ohio State often leads, which encourages teams to throw the ball to catch up, whereas scUM is not playing so far ahead that teams are so forced.

Against the run since 2015 Ohio State has faced an average of 36.1 attempts for 125.6 yards. They have given up 58 TDs and recovered 43 fumbles. Against top 10 teams, Ohio State faces 38.8 attempts and yields 134.0 per game. In both instances, Ohio State yields 3.5 yards per carry, on average. (Michigan's YPC against for all games was 3.5 as well, but against top 10 teams jumps to 4.9 per carry). Against non top ten teams Ohio State faces 35.4 runs a game to the tune of 123.3 yards per. That is also a 3.5 yard average (scUM's per carry average v. non top ten teams was 3.1). All in all, Ohio State's rush D is what it is. The level of competition doesn't seem to make all that much of a difference. Ohio State, again, yields about 9 more yards per game to top ten teams than normal, and just 11 more to top ten teams than to non top ten. scUM, as above, was some 80 yards worse against top 10 teams.

Against all teams Ohio State yields 318.4 yards on 68 plays, or 4.7 yards per play across the 61 games considered. Against top ten competition, Ohio State has given up 381.1 yards on 74.4 plays, or 5.1 yards per play. Against non top ten, Ohio State yields 301.5 yards on 66.3 plays, which is 4.6 yards per play. Thus, Ohio State yields 60 more yards a game to top 10 teams than they do all teams, and 80 more yards than they do against non top 10 teams. Michigan's defense, by contrast, gives up about 110 more yards to top ten teams than they do to anyone, and 132 or so more than they do against non top ten teams.

By and large, Ohio State's defense is about the same, game to game, regardless of the level of competition. The Buckeyes ordinarily yield about a half yard more to top ten teams per attempt, while scum, again, gives up almost 2 yards more, per play when the competition steps up.

Ohio State's worst 4 games, in terms of yards per play:

2017 - Oklahoma 6.8 yards per play to the tune of 31 points.
2018 - Pedophile State 6.5 yards per play to the tune of 38 points - good enough for second place on the field that particular day
2016 - Wisconsin 6.1 yards per play to the tune of 23 points - also a loss
2015- Notre Dame 5.8 yards per play to the tune of 28 points - hey, look, another loss.
Click to expand...
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Building on the Woods transfer, it looks like implications are real next season:

per the Ministry of Excuses:

Michigan's safety depth next year will consist of Sammy Faustin, German Green, Quinten Johnson coming off ACL surgery, and true freshman. A little ominous, that.
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With Browns blitz-heavy, aggressive defenses, top cover, i.e. solid safety play, is a necessity. They might be hurting a bit there next year.
 
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Buckeyeskickbuttocks said:
So, I decided to take Valenti up on his discussion of how Don Br... excuse me... Doctor Blitz's defenses have fared over the years against top 10 teams they've played, compared to everyone else.

Since becoming the DC in 2015, they've played 59 games through their loss last week. On average, over that time, Michigan's defense has performed as follows:

They've given up a total of 1026 points, for an average of 17.4 a game across those 59 games. In their 11 games against top 10 competition they've given up 367 points, or 33.4 per game. Against everyone except top 10 teams they've given up 659 points, or 13.7 per game. That is to say, top 10 teams are almost 3 touchdowns better against them than everyone else they play.
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Even when Michigan's defense performs well against top-10 teams, it still suffers from two deficiencies: (1) lack of elite athleticism; and (2) lack of depth.

Example (1):

In last week's game against Penn State, Michigan held the Nittany Lions to 283 total yards (5.2 per play); 14 first downs; 4 of 13 (30.8%) on third down; and 22:15 time of possession.

However, Michigan gave up three huge plays: (a) 37-yard pass that got Penn State into the red zone; they scored their first TD on the next play; (b) 44-yard run that got Penn State into the red zone; they scored their second TD four plays later; and (c) 53-yard pass for Penn State's fourth TD, what turned out to be the game-winning TD. On Penn State's third TD drive, with a short field, they hit passes of 18 and 25 yards for another quick strike.

Don Brown's high risk defense requires elite athletes. When he doesn't have the talent, he refuses to change his scheme and gets burned. Penn State had zero sustained drives all game long. Take out the huge plays and Michigan probably wins going away. But huge plays happen when you don't have the athletes to counter "speed in space".

Example (2):

In 2016, Michigan certainly had elite athletes on defense, with four first round draft picks (Jabrill Peppers; Taco Charlton; Devin Bush; Rashan Gary) and ten other NFL draftees (Chris Wormley [3rd]; Jourdan Lewis [3rd]; Delano Hill [3rd]; Chase Winovich [3rd]; David Long [3rd]; Ben Gedeon [4th]; Ryan Glasgow [4th]; Maurice Hurst [5th]; Jeremy Clark [6th]). That's 14 NFL players. That's some talent.

In The Game 2016, Michigan held Ohio State (in regulation) to 17 points; 280 total yards (3.7 yards per play); 19 first downs; 3 of 15 (20.0%) on 3rd down; and 28:47 time of possession. The Wolverines also had 8 sacks and 5 other TFLs.

But even with that much talent playing at that high level, Ohio State was able to wear Michigan down. Ohio State gained 137 of their 280 total yards (48.9%) in the 4th quarter; ran 26 of their 75 total plays (34.7%); had their longest drive (13 plays, 77 yards) and third-longest drive (10 plays, 61 yards); had by far their longest play (a 41-yard run by J.T. Barrett); had 7 of their 19 (36.8%) first downs; and held the ball for 11:07 of the 4th quarter (38.6% of their total time of possession). Conservative play calling and penalties kept Ohio State out of the end zone; a shanked chip shot field goal attempt prevented the Buckeyes from winning in regulation.

Then in OT Michigan had no success whatsoever, surrendering 14 points and 50 total yards on just 7 plays. In the first OT, Ohio State scored in just two plays, with an 18-yard run from Curtis Samuel (his longest of the game) and a 7-yard run from J.T. Barrett that could've gone for fifty. In the second OT, Curtis Samuel had his second-longest run of the game (15-yards for the winning score) on a play where he simply outran the entire Michigan defense.

After three quarters, Michigan's defense was gassed due to lack of depth (and/or poor conditioning), and Ohio State - with superior depth (and conditioning) was able to win a game that they probably should've lost.

A similar result occurred in the 2017 Game, when during the final 22:07 of play, Ohio State scored 17 of their 31 points; ran 31 of their 63 plays (49.2%); had 225 of their 350 total yards (64.3%); and held the ball for 15:00 (67.8% of the remaining game time).
 
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NFBuck said:
There has been a lot of talk that this was the season that the harbrau HAD to get over the hump. For whatever reason, it totally escapes me, they were the preseason B1G favorites and many had them as a CFBP contender. Well, those goals are in the toilet. Looking over their roster, it's pretty easy to see why this season was THE year he had to accomplish something. Next year, as their 2017/2018 recruiting classes start making up the core of their roster, things start to look pretty bleak, particularly at the skill positions:

QB: Losses (Shea Patterson) / Returnees R-JR Dylan McCaffrey (#5 PRO/#123 Overall, 2017), JR Joe Milton (#9 PRO/#204 Overall, 2018), R-FR Cade McNamara (#7 PRO/#268 Overall, 2019) / Incoming JD Johnson (#16 PRO / #387 Overall)
McCaffrey is the clear favorite for the job. His athleticism may make him a better overall fit for a spread-based offense, but his sample size is very small, and he's looked shaky as a passer when he's played. Coming into this season, word was that he was going to see significant action. For whatever reason, that has not happened. Partially, probably, because he suffered a concussion in their Bucky ass-beating, but even before that game he wasn't seeing the field much. Milton has a big arm, but has chucked 2 ints in 11 attempts. McNamara has made no noise and incoming FR JD Johnson is a middling recruit.

RB: Losses (None) / Returnees SO Zach Charbonnet (#4 RB / #46 Overall, 2019), R-SR Tru Wilson (NR ATH / NR Overall, 2016), R-SO Hassan Haskins (#49 RB / #975 Overall, 2018), JR Christian Turner (#22 RB / #508 Overall, 2018), R-SO Ben VanSumeren (#50 ATH / #624 Overall, 2018) / Incoming Blake Corum (#14 RB, #143 Overall), Gaige Garcia (#134 RB, NR Overall)
Charbonnet has shown some flashes of talent, but has often been clogged up behind a very mediocre OL. Plus, injuries are a question...he missed the spring with a knee injury that again limited him in a couple of games early in the season. After him, nobody stands out; Haskins had a big game against Illinois, but has been meh outside of that. Turner is mediocre and can't block, Wilson looks like a mediocre backup. VanSumeren is a plodding FB-type. Corum could be a decent back when he arrives.

WR: Losses (Nate Schoenle, potentially DPJ, Nico Collins and Tarik Black, lets assume they all go...) / Returnees JR Ronnie Bell (#212 WR / NR Overall, 2018), SO Cornelius Johnson (#26 WR / #175 Overall, 2019), SO Mike Sainristil (#60 CB / #876 Overall, 2019), SO Giles Jackson (#41 WR / #303 Overall, 2019), R-FR George Johnson (#60 ATH / #876 Overall, 2019) / Incoming AJ Henning (#18 WR / #89 Overall), Roman Wilson (#58 WR / #342 Overall)
Depending on the NFL decisions of Collins/DPJ/Black, things could be very bleak here. If one of the three return, they could make a decent pairing with Ronnie Bell. If all three go, it's Bell and a bunch of question marks. AJ Henning is a nice recruit who should help, but the returnees are mostly "meh" recruits who haven't shown anything. Not ideal when you're breaking a new QB.

TE: Losses (None) / Returnees R-SR Sean McKeon (#45 TE / #854 Overall, 2016), R-SR Nick Eubanks (#15 TE / #244 Overall, 2016), R-SO Luke Schoonmaker (#39 TE / #796 Overall, 2018), SO Erick All (#13 TE / #346 Overall, 2019)
Conceivably, both Eubanks and McKeon could be back for their fifth year. Neither of them look like playmakers. Schoonmaker and All have both seen playing time this year, but have a combined 3 catches.

So, a depth chart, in theory looks like so, allowing that, say, Tarik Blacks returns, DPJ and Collins go pro:
QB- McCaffrey / Milton / McNamara / Johnson*
RB- Charbonnet / Haskins / Wilson / Turner / Corum*
WR1- Black / Henning*
WR2- G. Jackson / G. Johnson / R. Wilson*
SLOT- Bell / Sainristil
TE- McKeon / Eubanks / Schoonmaker / All

* = True Freshman

Yuck.
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They also lose three starters on the OL with the possibility of four if Ruiz bails early.

These departures, who have had highly mediocre careers, are also by far the highest rated recruits they’ve had on the OL in Bredeson and Onwenu.

There is a substantial talent void and then some higher rated (but not top 100) guys in the ‘19 class who they will be relying heavily on to carry the load moving forward.

If that ‘19 class doesn’t pull through in a big way for them - like a 100% hit rate on solid contributors - they will be in big, big trouble.
 
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Buckeye86 said:
They also lose three starters on the OL with the possibility of four if Ruiz bails early.

These departures, who have had highly mediocre careers, are also by far the highest rated recruits they’ve had on the OL in Bredeson and Onwenu.

There is a substantial talent void and then some higher rated (but not top 100) guys in the ‘19 class who they will be relying heavily on to carry the load moving forward.

If that ‘19 class doesn’t pull through in a big way for them - like a 100% hit rate on solid contributors - they will be in big, big trouble.
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I was gonna include an OL breakdown, too; but honestly I don't know who half of the kids that will be on deck are. Reading the Ministry of Excuses deep dives into their games this season, the OL grading, aside from Bredeson and Onwenu have not been kind. And their OL recruiting has been...um...not very good. It could get really ugly.

For 2020, they currently have one 4* OL committ, a guard ranked #266 nationally, a 3* tackle listed at 265 lbs; a 3* center and another 3* tackle ranked #767 overall. If they don't hit big on several of their 2019 commits, they got four 4*s, woof.
 
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I find all of this pleasing.

I mentioned earlier, the cupboard being left empty will be one of the first excuses we start to hear. I think it will be a fine final legacy for Hariball. It’s like wine and cheese. No wins against tOSU and leaving the locker room worse off than Hoke’s final classes.

Hoke was, after all this, their Xichigan Xan.
 
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