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ttun Shenanigans, Arguments, and Emasculated Cucks (2019 thread)

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CFPBuckeye said:
That many Ls is even legal in TSUN. Medicinally, of course. Purple face surely qualifies him.

blunts-vs-joints-article-thcfinder-blunts.jpg
Click to expand...

Here in PA living near cult members should be a qualifying condition.
 
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So, I decided to take Valenti up on his discussion of how Don Br... excuse me... Doctor Blitz's defenses have fared over the years against top 10 teams they've played, compared to everyone else.

Since becoming the DC in 2015, they've played 59 games through their loss last week. On average, over that time, Michigan's defense has performed as follows:

They've given up a total of 1026 points, for an average of 17.4 a game across those 59 games. In their 11 games against top 10 competition they've given up 367 points, or 33.4 per game. Against everyone except top 10 teams they've given up 659 points, or 13.7 per game. That is to say, top 10 teams are almost 3 touchdowns better against them than everyone else they play.

Michigan's pass defense, in all games, averages a line against of: 12.9 completions on 26.3 attempts (48.98% completion percentage) for 150 yards a game. They have allowed 49 TDs through the air and have 49 picks.
Against top ten competition Michigan's defensive line against is: 12.9 of 25.2 (51.3%) for 190.4 per game, allowing 17 scores while picking off 7.
Against everyone except top ten teams Michigan's line is: 12.8 of 26.5 (48.4%) for 140.8 yards with 32 scores allowed and 42 picks. Michigan, then, gives up 50 yards less against non top 10 passing teams while losing the TD/INT ratio by 10 on virtually the same number of completions against and attempts against.

Michigan's rush defense, against all teams since 2015 has allowed 123.7 yards per game on 35.5 carries, allowing 65 TDs and recovering 28 fumbles.
Against top ten teams, Michigan has allowed 191.2 yards on 38.6 carries, allowing 27 touchdowns while recovering 2 fumbles.
Against everyone except the top ten teams they've played: 108.2 on 34.7 carries allowing 38 Tds and recovering 26 fumbles. Doctor Blitz's rush D, then, is 83 yards worse per game against top ten teams than everyone else on just 4 more carries per game. Striking, though, is the lack of fumble recoveries against top 10 teams and generating turnovers generally (7 picks, 2 fumbles in 11 games, instead of 68 turnovers in the 48 games NOT against top 10 teams).

Against all teams Michigan has allowed 273.7 yards per game. Against non top 10, they yield 249 and against top 10 they give up 381.5 per game. That works out to top 10 teams gaining nearly 2 full yards per play more than non top ten teams manage (5.9/play vs. 4.0 per play)

The game logs demonstrate that it's been exactly 1 time that Michigan's defense has shut down a top ten team; specifically 2016 Wisconsin which was scUM's only win of the 11 top ten games they've played (14-7). They yielded just 88 passing yards and 71 rushing yards, while picking off 3 passes (essentially HALF of all their picks in top ten games, and exactly one third of all turnovers in said contests are from this game alone). Indeed, removing just that one game reveals how great an outlier it was...

Instead of yielding 33.4 per game in top 10 games, without Wisconsin, the number jumps up about a field goal to 36 given up per game.
Rather than holding top ten teams to 190.4 through the air, they would instead yield 200.6 yards, giving up 16 TDs against 4 picks.
Rather than giving up 191.2 on the ground they would give up 209.5 while still giving up 27 rushing scores and recovering just 2 fumbles.

But, what about their yards per play, you ask?

Against top ten teams scUM yields 5.9 yards a game (6.2 if we leave out the 2016 Wisconsin game) while yielding just 4 per play to everyone else.

2018 Ohio State scored 62 points and had an 8.5 yards per play average.
2017 Penn State scored 42 points and had an 8.3 yards per play average.
2015 Ohio State scored 42 points and had a 7.0 yards per play average
2018 Florida scored 41 points and had a 6.8 yard per play average.
 
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Buckeyeskickbuttocks said:
So, I decided to take Valenti up on his discussion of how Don Br... excuse me... Doctor Blitz's defenses have fared over the years against top 10 teams they've played, compared to everyone else.

Since becoming the DC in 2015, they've played 59 games through their loss last week. On average, over that time, Michigan's defense has performed as follows:

They've given up a total of 1026 points, for an average of 17.4 a game across those 59 games. In their 11 games against top 10 competition they've given up 367 points, or 33.4 per game. Against everyone except top 10 teams they've given up 659 points, or 13.7 per game. That is to say, top 10 teams are almost 3 touchdowns better against them than everyone else they play.

Michigan's pass defense, in all games, averages a line against of: 12.9 completions on 26.3 attempts (48.98% completion percentage) for 150 yards a game. They have allowed 49 TDs through the air and have 49 picks.
Against top ten competition Michigan's defensive line against is: 12.9 of 25.2 (51.3%) for 190.4 per game, allowing 17 scores while picking off 7.
Against everyone except top ten teams Michigan's line is: 12.8 of 26.5 (48.4%) for 140.8 yards with 32 scores allowed and 42 picks. Michigan, then, gives up 50 yards less against non top 10 passing teams while losing the TD/INT ratio by 10 on virtually the same number of completions against and attempts against.

Michigan's rush defense, against all teams since 2015 has allowed 123.7 yards per game on 35.5 carries, allowing 65 TDs and recovering 28 fumbles.
Against top ten teams, Michigan has allowed 191.2 yards on 38.6 carries, allowing 27 touchdowns while recovering 2 fumbles.
Against everyone except the top ten teams they've played: 108.2 on 34.7 carries allowing 38 Tds and recovering 26 fumbles. Doctor Blitz's rush D, then, is 83 yards worse per game against top ten teams than everyone else on just 4 more carries per game. Striking, though, is the lack of fumble recoveries against top 10 teams and generating turnovers generally (7 picks, 2 fumbles in 11 games, instead of 68 turnovers in the 48 games NOT against top 10 teams).

Against all teams Michigan has allowed 273.7 yards per game. Against non top 10, they yield 249 and against top 10 they give up 381.5 per game. That works out to top 10 teams gaining nearly 2 full yards per play more than non top ten teams manage (5.9/play vs. 4.0 per play)

The game logs demonstrate that it's been exactly 1 time that Michigan's defense has shut down a top ten team; specifically 2016 Wisconsin which was scUM's only win of the 11 top ten games they've played (14-7). They yielded just 88 passing yards and 71 rushing yards, while picking off 3 passes (essentially HALF of all their picks in top ten games, and exactly one third of all turnovers in said contests are from this game alone). Indeed, removing just that one game reveals how great an outlier it was...

Instead of yielding 33.4 per game in top 10 games, without Wisconsin, the number jumps up about a field goal to 36 given up per game.
Rather than holding top ten teams to 190.4 through the air, they would instead yield 200.6 yards, giving up 16 TDs against 4 picks.
Rather than giving up 191.2 on the ground they would give up 209.5 while still giving up 27 rushing scores and recovering just 2 fumbles.

But, what about their yards per play, you ask?

Against top ten teams scUM yields 5.9 yards a game (6.2 if we leave out the 2016 Wisconsin game) while yielding just 4 per play to everyone else.

2018 Ohio State scored 62 points and had an 8.5 yards per play average.
2017 Penn State scored 42 points and had an 8.3 yards per play average.
2015 Ohio State scored 42 points and had a 7.0 yards per play average
2018 Florida scored 41 points and had a 6.8 yard per play average.
Click to expand...

Not surprising, but presumably most defenses do worse against top 10 teams. It would be interesting to know how big the difference is for them is versus the difference for other teams' defenses, but no, I don't expect anyone to go to that trouble.
 
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Jagdaddy said:
Not surprising, but presumably most defenses do worse against top 10 teams. It would be interesting to know how big the difference is for them is versus the difference for other teams' defenses, but no, I don't expect anyone to go to that trouble.
Click to expand...

I did a quick comparison using just Ohio State's defense since 2015 to see if doing so could provide any insights into what the scUM data is...

Since 2015 Ohio State has played 13 opponents ranked in the top 10 and has a record of 10-3. Losses are MSU 2015, Clemson 2016, and OU 2017.

Against all teams in that time Ohio State has yielded 17.6 points per game. Against just top 10 teams, Ohio State gives up 24.2, a difference of about a touchdown (scUM's difference was 16 points). Against non top 10 teams, Ohio State has given up an average of 15.9 points per game. That is just 2 points less their every game average and is only a touchdown and field goal less than how Ohio State plays top ten competition (scUM's differential was 3 touchdowns)

Against all teams Ohio State has had the ball thrown on them as follows: 16.8 completions on 31.9 attempts (52.6%) for 192.9 yards per game. In that time (2015 through Northwestern) Ohio State has yielded 62 scores and picked off 67 passes. Against top ten teams, Ohio State has had the following production against: 20.5 of 35.6 (57.7%) for 247.1 yards. The Buckeyes have given up 18 scores through the air and grabbed 13 picks. Against non top 10 teams, Ohio State yields 178.2 yards of 15.7 of 30.8 (51.0%) with 44 scores against and 54 picks. Contrasting this with Michigan's numbers above, it would seem that their pass D is less affected by top ten teams, as the Buckeyes give up about 70 yards more per game against top 10 teams than they do against non top ten teams, whereas Michigan's differential was about 50 yards. It should be noted, however, that Ohio State is facing about 10 extra passes a game than their scUM counterparts in top 10 match-ups. I believe this is because Ohio State often leads, which encourages teams to throw the ball to catch up, whereas scUM is not playing so far ahead that teams are so forced.

Against the run since 2015 Ohio State has faced an average of 36.1 attempts for 125.6 yards. They have given up 58 TDs and recovered 43 fumbles. Against top 10 teams, Ohio State faces 38.8 attempts and yields 134.0 per game. In both instances, Ohio State yields 3.5 yards per carry, on average. (Michigan's YPC against for all games was 3.5 as well, but against top 10 teams jumps to 4.9 per carry). Against non top ten teams Ohio State faces 35.4 runs a game to the tune of 123.3 yards per. That is also a 3.5 yard average (scUM's per carry average v. non top ten teams was 3.1). All in all, Ohio State's rush D is what it is. The level of competition doesn't seem to make all that much of a difference. Ohio State, again, yields about 9 more yards per game to top ten teams than normal, and just 11 more to top ten teams than to non top ten. scUM, as above, was some 80 yards worse against top 10 teams.

Against all teams Ohio State yields 318.4 yards on 68 plays, or 4.7 yards per play across the 61 games considered. Against top ten competition, Ohio State has given up 381.1 yards on 74.4 plays, or 5.1 yards per play. Against non top ten, Ohio State yields 301.5 yards on 66.3 plays, which is 4.6 yards per play. Thus, Ohio State yields 60 more yards a game to top 10 teams than they do all teams, and 80 more yards than they do against non top 10 teams. Michigan's defense, by contrast, gives up about 110 more yards to top ten teams than they do to anyone, and 132 or so more than they do against non top ten teams.

By and large, Ohio State's defense is about the same, game to game, regardless of the level of competition. The Buckeyes ordinarily yield about a half yard more to top ten teams per attempt, while scum, again, gives up almost 2 yards more, per play when the competition steps up.

Ohio State's worst 4 games, in terms of yards per play:

2017 - Oklahoma 6.8 yards per play to the tune of 31 points.
2018 - Pedophile State 6.5 yards per play to the tune of 38 points - good enough for second place on the field that particular day
2016 - Wisconsin 6.1 yards per play to the tune of 23 points - also a loss
2015- Notre Dame 5.8 yards per play to the tune of 28 points - hey, look, another loss.
 
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scUM played the best game they could probably play. Outgained Peds by over 100 yards, were better on 3rd down.....and still needed a comeback that of course fell short and ended in a L

The fact that they lost that game, IMO speaks more to how mediocre they are rather than "ITS COMING AROUND!!!" Like some DFBIA may want to claim.
 
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There has been a lot of talk that this was the season that the harbrau HAD to get over the hump. For whatever reason, it totally escapes me, they were the preseason B1G favorites and many had them as a CFBP contender. Well, those goals are in the toilet. Looking over their roster, it's pretty easy to see why this season was THE year he had to accomplish something. Next year, as their 2017/2018 recruiting classes start making up the core of their roster, things start to look pretty bleak, particularly at the skill positions:

QB: Losses (Shea Patterson) / Returnees R-JR Dylan McCaffrey (#5 PRO/#123 Overall, 2017), JR Joe Milton (#9 PRO/#204 Overall, 2018), R-FR Cade McNamara (#7 PRO/#268 Overall, 2019) / Incoming JD Johnson (#16 PRO / #387 Overall)
McCaffrey is the clear favorite for the job. His athleticism may make him a better overall fit for a spread-based offense, but his sample size is very small, and he's looked shaky as a passer when he's played. Coming into this season, word was that he was going to see significant action. For whatever reason, that has not happened. Partially, probably, because he suffered a concussion in their Bucky ass-beating, but even before that game he wasn't seeing the field much. Milton has a big arm, but has chucked 2 ints in 11 attempts. McNamara has made no noise and incoming FR JD Johnson is a middling recruit.

RB: Losses (None) / Returnees SO Zach Charbonnet (#4 RB / #46 Overall, 2019), R-SR Tru Wilson (NR ATH / NR Overall, 2016), R-SO Hassan Haskins (#49 RB / #975 Overall, 2018), JR Christian Turner (#22 RB / #508 Overall, 2018), R-SO Ben VanSumeren (#50 ATH / #624 Overall, 2018) / Incoming Blake Corum (#14 RB, #143 Overall), Gaige Garcia (#134 RB, NR Overall)
Charbonnet has shown some flashes of talent, but has often been clogged up behind a very mediocre OL. Plus, injuries are a question...he missed the spring with a knee injury that again limited him in a couple of games early in the season. After him, nobody stands out; Haskins had a big game against Illinois, but has been meh outside of that. Turner is mediocre and can't block, Wilson looks like a mediocre backup. VanSumeren is a plodding FB-type. Corum could be a decent back when he arrives.

WR: Losses (Nate Schoenle, potentially DPJ, Nico Collins and Tarik Black, lets assume they all go...) / Returnees JR Ronnie Bell (#212 WR / NR Overall, 2018), SO Cornelius Johnson (#26 WR / #175 Overall, 2019), SO Mike Sainristil (#60 CB / #876 Overall, 2019), SO Giles Jackson (#41 WR / #303 Overall, 2019), R-FR George Johnson (#60 ATH / #876 Overall, 2019) / Incoming AJ Henning (#18 WR / #89 Overall), Roman Wilson (#58 WR / #342 Overall)
Depending on the NFL decisions of Collins/DPJ/Black, things could be very bleak here. If one of the three return, they could make a decent pairing with Ronnie Bell. If all three go, it's Bell and a bunch of question marks. AJ Henning is a nice recruit who should help, but the returnees are mostly "meh" recruits who haven't shown anything. Not ideal when you're breaking a new QB.

TE: Losses (None) / Returnees R-SR Sean McKeon (#45 TE / #854 Overall, 2016), R-SR Nick Eubanks (#15 TE / #244 Overall, 2016), R-SO Luke Schoonmaker (#39 TE / #796 Overall, 2018), SO Erick All (#13 TE / #346 Overall, 2019)
Conceivably, both Eubanks and McKeon could be back for their fifth year. Neither of them look like playmakers. Schoonmaker and All have both seen playing time this year, but have a combined 3 catches.

So, a depth chart, in theory looks like so, allowing that, say, Tarik Blacks returns, DPJ and Collins go pro:
QB- McCaffrey / Milton / McNamara / Johnson*
RB- Charbonnet / Haskins / Wilson / Turner / Corum*
WR1- Black / Henning*
WR2- G. Jackson / G. Johnson / R. Wilson*
SLOT- Bell / Sainristil
TE- McKeon / Eubanks / Schoonmaker / All

* = True Freshman

Yuck.
 
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NFBuck said:
There has been a lot of talk that this was the season that the harbrau HAD to get over the hump. For whatever reason, it totally escapes me, they were the preseason B1G favorites and many had them as a CFBP contender. Well, those goals are in the toilet. Looking over their roster, it's pretty easy to see why this season was THE year he had to accomplish something. Next year, as their 2017/2018 recruiting classes start making up the core of their roster, things start to look pretty bleak, particularly at the skill positions:

QB: Losses (Shea Patterson) / Returnees R-JR Dylan McCaffrey (#5 PRO/#123 Overall, 2017), JR Joe Milton (#9 PRO/#204 Overall, 2018), R-FR Cade McNamara (#7 PRO/#268 Overall, 2019) / Incoming JD Johnson (#16 PRO / #387 Overall)
McCaffrey is the clear favorite for the job. His athleticism may make him a better overall fit for a spread-based offense, but his sample size is very small, and he's looked shaky as a passer when he's played. Coming into this season, word was that he was going to see significant action. For whatever reason, that has not happened. Partially, probably, because he suffered a concussion in their Bucky ass-beating, but even before that game he wasn't seeing the field much. Milton has a big arm, but has chucked 2 ints in 11 attempts. McNamara has made no noise and incoming FR JD Johnson is a middling recruit.

RB: Losses (None) / Returnees SO Zach Charbonnet (#4 RB / #46 Overall, 2019), R-SR Tru Wilson (NR ATH / NR Overall, 2016), R-SO Hassan Haskins (#49 RB / #975 Overall, 2018), JR Christian Turner (#22 RB / #508 Overall, 2018), R-SO Ben VanSumeren (#50 ATH / #624 Overall, 2018) / Incoming Blake Corum (#14 RB, #143 Overall), Gaige Garcia (#134 RB, NR Overall)
Charbonnet has shown some flashes of talent, but has often been clogged up behind a very mediocre OL. Plus, injuries are a question...he missed the spring with a knee injury that again limited him in a couple of games early in the season. After him, nobody stands out; Haskins had a big game against Illinois, but has been meh outside of that. Turner is mediocre and can't block, Wilson looks like a mediocre backup. VanSumeren is a plodding FB-type. Corum could be a decent back when he arrives.

WR: Losses (Nate Schoenle, potentially DPJ, Nico Collins and Tarik Black, lets assume they all go...) / Returnees JR Ronnie Bell (#212 WR / NR Overall, 2018), SO Cornelius Johnson (#26 WR / #175 Overall, 2019), SO Mike Sainristil (#60 CB / #876 Overall, 2019), SO Giles Jackson (#41 WR / #303 Overall, 2019), R-FR George Johnson (#60 ATH / #876 Overall, 2019) / Incoming AJ Henning (#18 WR / #89 Overall), Roman Wilson (#58 WR / #342 Overall)
Depending on the NFL decisions of Collins/DPJ/Black, things could be very bleak here. If one of the three return, they could make a decent pairing with Ronnie Bell. If all three go, it's Bell and a bunch of question marks. AJ Henning is a nice recruit who should help, but the returnees are mostly "meh" recruits who haven't shown anything. Not ideal when you're breaking a new QB.

TE: Losses (None) / Returnees R-SR Sean McKeon (#45 TE / #854 Overall, 2016), R-SR Nick Eubanks (#15 TE / #244 Overall, 2016), R-SO Luke Schoonmaker (#39 TE / #796 Overall, 2018), SO Erick All (#13 TE / #346 Overall, 2019)
Conceivably, both Eubanks and McKeon could be back for their fifth year. Neither of them look like playmakers. Schoonmaker and All have both seen playing time this year, but have a combined 3 catches.

So, a depth chart, in theory looks like so, allowing that, say, Tarik Blacks returns, DPJ and Collins go pro:
QB- McCaffrey / Milton / McNamara / Johnson*
RB- Charbonnet / Haskins / Wilson / Turner / Corum*
WR1- Black / Henning*
WR2- G. Jackson / G. Johnson / R. Wilson*
SLOT- Bell / Sainristil
TE- McKeon / Eubanks / Schoonmaker / All

* = True Freshman

Yuck.
Click to expand...

DPJ, Collins and Black would all be wise to run for the hills, especially if the same coaching staff remains next season, theyve proven over and over that they do not know how to properly get them the ball at a consistent rate. Thus in the same situation they arent likely to really improve their draft stock much by returning
 
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