Tropical Weather

[Gatorubet]

So max winds about 46 mph. Still can make you dark for a day or so when the lines go down from fallen limbs and branches. 90 degrees and 60% humidity with no power at night and it feels like sleeping in your bathroom while the shower is still running on hot.

 

[Nutriaitch]

here's a pretty good web site for tracking storms....

Track Tropical Storm Josephine, Track Hurricane Ike, Track Hurricane Hanna / Stormpulse / Hurricane tracking, mapping

this is an awesome site.
going through the archives of past storms and where they hit.
pretty cool info.

 

[Mike80]

Mr. Earl is going to bomb-out tomorrow.

The pressure is down to 966.8 MB now with 85MPH winds.

I'm pretty sure he'll be a Cat 4 by this time Monday and perhaps a Cat 5 with the Florida, Georgia and Carolina coastlines in his sights by Tuesday night.

 

[Mike80]

This is showing the steering currents for both Danielle and Earl (and whatever the wave over the Central Atlantic turns into)....

Usually this type of pattern would make Earl do one of two things, either take a WSW course through the northern Carib OR go almost due North or North-North-West.

Unfortunately, he is doing neither and is more Westerly than anything. The further west it goes in the next day the greater the threat to the East Coast. I don't think it will get into the Gulf though.

 

[Nutriaitch]

I don't think it will get into the Gulf though.

according to my completely unscientific method of taking wild ass guesses, the Louisiana coast will not be affected by a storm until the 2011 Hurricane Season.

 

[Mike80]

925MB usually is a strong Cat 4 Hurricane. Think Hugo.

BTW that IS NOT Earl. That is 97L which is currently out in the Central Atlantic.

 

[Mike80]

000
URNT12 KWBC 300112
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 30/0038Z
B. 17 DEG 45 MIN N
60 DEG 31 MIN W
C. NA
D. 76 KT
E. 088 DEG 21 NM
F. 170 DEG 94 KT
G. 088 DEG 21 NM
H. 970 MB
I. 16 C/2040 M
J. 19 C/2295 M
K. 17 C/NA
L. OPEN W
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX07A EARL4 OB 30
MAX FL WIND 95 KT E QUAD 0033Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WINDS 82 KT W QUAD 0045Z

 

[Mike80]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 300236
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

EARL HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND AN SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND
SPEED OF 83 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 93 KT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO 84 KT AT THE
SURFACE USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FACTOR. BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT. IMAGES FROM
THE GUADELOUPE AND ST. MARTIN RADARS SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE ABOUT
30 N MI IN DIAMETER WHILE THE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT THE EYE WAS OPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CIRCULATION. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS
SHOULD CREATE A ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS EARL BECOMING A
MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE
LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION...285/13...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE
IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE. BY DAYS 3 TO 4...THE HEADING
AND FORWARD SPEED OF EARL ARE DEPENDENT ON THE DETAILS OF THE
EVOLUTION OF A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS TROUGH AMPLIFYING MORE THAN THE OTHER
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND MOVE EARL SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SHARPER EASTWARD TURN THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON
DYNAMICAL...MAINLY GLOBAL MODEL...GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 17.9N 61.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.6W 100 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.4W 110 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 27.5N 71.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 34.0N 72.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 67.0W 85 KT

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

 

[Gatorubet]

925MB usually is a strong Cat 4 Hurricane. Think Hugo.

BTW that IS NOT Earl. That is 97L which is currently out in the Central Atlantic.

I guess we'll see how much dry air 97 has to suck off of Earl's leavings. If 97 stays close to earl it might not get a chance to develop properly. Let's just keep these babies out of the Gulf please.

 

[Mike80]

133800 1838N 06320W 6442 03470 9570 +135 +079 068010 014 /// /// 03

957.0 mb found.

This usually equates to a medium-strength Cat 3 with around 120 MPH winds....usually.....

 

[Mike80]

NHC agrees with me :p

Per NHC call Earl at 960 mb, and 105 kt winds.

Tropical Weather : Weather Underground

 

[Mike80]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 301450
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM BOTH
SAN JUAN AND ST. MAARTEN. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
EYEWALL AROUND 1200 UTC. THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT SAMPLED THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AGAIN...BUT FOUND 90 KT SFMR WINDS IN THE
NORTHWEST EYEWALL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 960 MB. THIS SUPPORTS
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KT...CATEGORY THREE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING EARL
AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL
CYCLES COULD INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IN 4-5 DAYS. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AGAIN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 18.7N 63.6W 105 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 19.5N 65.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.7W 125 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 25.2N 70.6W 120 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 73.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 37.5N 71.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 45.5N 63.0W 75 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

This thing better start the turn soon.

 

[buxfan4life]

I'm pretty sure he'll be a Cat 4 by this time Monday and perhaps a Cat 5 with the Florida, Georgia and Carolina coastlines in his sights by Tuesday night.

I don't think so. Strongest it will be is maybe a Cat 3, but no way it reaches Cat 5. Also, not sure what tracks you are watching, but that big High pressure system sitting over the middle of the Atlantic is going to steer most TD/Storms away from the coast. Maybe the outer-bands of rain will reach the east coast, but I don't see a landfall with this one.

 

[Mike80]

I don't think so. Strongest it will be is maybe a Cat 3, but no way it reaches Cat 5. Also, not sure what tracks you are watching, but that big High pressure system sitting over the middle of the Atlantic is going to steer most TD/Storms away from the coast. Maybe the outer-bands of rain will reach the east coast, but I don't see a landfall with this one.

This is what I'm going off of....this is the CIMSS steering graphic.

the problem is the gap left by Danielle has not filled in sufficiently, so Earl's track is somewhat up in the air. Essentially it's in an area of weak steering currents as highlighted by the graphic above.

There are two scenarios at play here, if the High, currently centered over the eastern United States, becomes elongated SW to NE, then Earl will likely go NW to NNW and miss the US coast.

However, if the High flattens out and/or doesn't become elongated, Earl will track more to the West.

The models and projected tracks keep trending west ever so slightly. That's not to say it won't eventually adjust East, but it's certainly not IMPOSSIBLE that the US could see a strike out of this one.

As for the intensity, right now NHC is forecasting 145MPH winds. The threshold for Cat 5 is 156. That's not a big jump, especially with a low shear environment and 90 degree water. We'll see what happens but this storm will be a Cat 4 by 11PM tonight.

 

[TGfan06]

All I know is that the forecasts have been shifting west ever since last night. It looks as though there is a trough that is keeping the system from shifting north any time soon.

Even if it does not make landfall, points between North Carolina through the northeast are most likely still going to get some hurricane force winds out of Earl.