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Tropical Weather

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vis-l.jpg
 
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BuckeyeMike80;1517172; said:
Tropical Storm Claudette appears to be coming ashore somewhere near Pensacola later tonight or early tomorrow.

NWS radar image loop of Composite Reflectivity from Northwest Florida

The storm literally formed overnight.
Click to expand...

yep. looks like I'm gonna catch the edges of this one.
skies getting dark gray out there.
shouldn't be too bad this far west, prolly just bad enough to screw up my satellite service for the evening.
 
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Wow. It is amazing how active things have become in just the past few days. I am really nervous about Bill right now. This thing seems to have its eyes set on the NE coast right now.
I am still hoping that it finds a weakness in the ridge and turns northeast. This is what the NHC is saying right now:

FAVORED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GFDL/HWRF...SHOWS A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CAUSING
IT TO BREAK AROUND 65W. THIS LEADS TO A NORTHWEST MOTION OF BILL
IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE OTHER SOLUTION...SHOWN BY THE
NOGAPS/UKMET...IS THAT THE HURRICANE BYPASSES THE FIRST BREAK AND
CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
Click to expand...
 
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TGfan06;1517219; said:
Wow. It is amazing how active things have become in just the past few days. I am really nervous about Bill right now. This thing seems to have its eyes set on the NE coast right now.
I am still hoping that it finds a weakness in the ridge and turns northeast. This is what the NHC is saying right now:
Click to expand...

That far out can have errors up to 300 miles in some cases.

turning it northwest doesn't necessarily mean a strike. The Hurricane (and I'm going to call it that because it will be one at 11PM) will start to feel the effects of the trough long before it's near the east coast due to the strength of the storm itself and how strong the trough will be in breaking down the high pressure area that bill is currently south of.

However once it reaches a certain latitude these storms tend to curve out to sea usually but that's all climatological.
 
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BuckeyeMike80;1517223; said:
That far out can have errors up to 300 miles in some cases.

turning it northwest doesn't necessarily mean a strike. The Hurricane (and I'm going to call it that because it will be one at 11PM) will start to feel the effects of the trough long before it's near the east coast due to the strength of the storm itself and how strong the trough will be in breaking down the high pressure area that bill is currently south of.

However once it reaches a certain latitude these storms tend to curve out to sea usually but that's all climatological.
Click to expand...

I hope he heads out to sea. I'd rather him stay on that side of the bay and push water out rather than track up the other side of the bay and cause a storm surge, like Isabel did.
 
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