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000
WTNT41 KNHC 091459
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
The structure of the system on satellite imagery has improved this
morning, with a large circular region of cold convection between -70
to -85 near the estimated center. An Air-Force Reconnaissance
Aircraft is sampling the system this morning and earlier found a
cyclonic wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly flow near
the center of the mass of deep convection. This data provides enough
evidence that a well-defined circulation now exists, and thus PTC
Six has become Tropical Storm Francine with sustained winds of
45 kt this advisory.
The estimated motion is still tricky given the center only recently
formed but is estimated still off to the north-northwest at 340/4
kt. The system is expected to gradually turn northward and then
north-northeastward as it moves between a mid-level ridge centered
over Cuba and a broad mid- to upper-level trough located to its
northwest over Texas. The guidance this cycle has shifted a little
eastward and faster, and the NHC track forecast was once again
nudged in that direction. The current track splits the difference
between HCCA and TVCN and still shows Francine moving ashore of
Louisiana sometime on Wednesday evening. There remains a decent
amount of track uncertainty with the GEFS and EPS ensembles showing
along-track spread implying some speed differences near landfall.
While the system is now a tropical storm, the inner core wind field
per reconnaissance observations is still broad and in the organizing
stage, and initial intensification will be gradual. However, after
an inner-core becomes established, and assuming the cyclone's
vertical structure becomes aligned, a period of more significant
intensification is possible while storm is embedded in a low shear,
high mid-level moisture, and over very warm 30-31 C sea-surface
temperatures. The SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices are
pretty elevated, and a period of RI could also occur between 24-48
h. For now, the NHC intensity forecast will not explicitly forecast
RI, but is higher than the previous cycle and shows a 75 kt peak in
48 h, in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. After
that period, southwesterly vertical wind shear quickly increases
from 10 kt to more than 30 kt and the intensity could plateau as it
approaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf coastline, though the system
is forecast to remain a hurricane at landfall. The NHC intensity
forecast continues to be in good agreement with the consensus aids,
but is a bit under the HAFS-A/B and COAMPS-TC models.
Given the latest forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for
the Louisiana coastline from Cameron to Grand Isle, and a Storm
Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, TX eastward to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border.
With this advisory, the experimental cone graphic that includes
inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm watches in the U.S. will be
available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the
inland watch information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. The experimental cone
graphic can be found from a link on the page with the operational
cone graphic once it is available on hurricanes.gov.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Francine is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
northwestern Gulf coast on Wednesday or Wednesday night and there is
an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge inundation
for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the watch area should
follow advice given by local officials.
2. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds in
portions of southern Louisiana beginning Wednesday, where a
Hurricane Watch is now in effect.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash flooding along the coast of far northeast Mexico,
portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast,
southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the
Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 24.0N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 24.9N 95.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 26.3N 95.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 28.0N 93.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 29.7N 92.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...ON THE COAST
72H 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1200Z 36.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/1200Z 37.5N 88.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Papin
WTNT41 KNHC 091459
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
The structure of the system on satellite imagery has improved this
morning, with a large circular region of cold convection between -70
to -85 near the estimated center. An Air-Force Reconnaissance
Aircraft is sampling the system this morning and earlier found a
cyclonic wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly flow near
the center of the mass of deep convection. This data provides enough
evidence that a well-defined circulation now exists, and thus PTC
Six has become Tropical Storm Francine with sustained winds of
45 kt this advisory.
The estimated motion is still tricky given the center only recently
formed but is estimated still off to the north-northwest at 340/4
kt. The system is expected to gradually turn northward and then
north-northeastward as it moves between a mid-level ridge centered
over Cuba and a broad mid- to upper-level trough located to its
northwest over Texas. The guidance this cycle has shifted a little
eastward and faster, and the NHC track forecast was once again
nudged in that direction. The current track splits the difference
between HCCA and TVCN and still shows Francine moving ashore of
Louisiana sometime on Wednesday evening. There remains a decent
amount of track uncertainty with the GEFS and EPS ensembles showing
along-track spread implying some speed differences near landfall.
While the system is now a tropical storm, the inner core wind field
per reconnaissance observations is still broad and in the organizing
stage, and initial intensification will be gradual. However, after
an inner-core becomes established, and assuming the cyclone's
vertical structure becomes aligned, a period of more significant
intensification is possible while storm is embedded in a low shear,
high mid-level moisture, and over very warm 30-31 C sea-surface
temperatures. The SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices are
pretty elevated, and a period of RI could also occur between 24-48
h. For now, the NHC intensity forecast will not explicitly forecast
RI, but is higher than the previous cycle and shows a 75 kt peak in
48 h, in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. After
that period, southwesterly vertical wind shear quickly increases
from 10 kt to more than 30 kt and the intensity could plateau as it
approaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf coastline, though the system
is forecast to remain a hurricane at landfall. The NHC intensity
forecast continues to be in good agreement with the consensus aids,
but is a bit under the HAFS-A/B and COAMPS-TC models.
Given the latest forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for
the Louisiana coastline from Cameron to Grand Isle, and a Storm
Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, TX eastward to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border.
With this advisory, the experimental cone graphic that includes
inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm watches in the U.S. will be
available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the
inland watch information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. The experimental cone
graphic can be found from a link on the page with the operational
cone graphic once it is available on hurricanes.gov.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Francine is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
northwestern Gulf coast on Wednesday or Wednesday night and there is
an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge inundation
for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the watch area should
follow advice given by local officials.
2. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds in
portions of southern Louisiana beginning Wednesday, where a
Hurricane Watch is now in effect.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash flooding along the coast of far northeast Mexico,
portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast,
southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the
Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 24.0N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 24.9N 95.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 26.3N 95.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 28.0N 93.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 29.7N 92.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...ON THE COAST
72H 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1200Z 36.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/1200Z 37.5N 88.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Papin
Upvote
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Nutriaitch
Retired Super Hero
Glad I'm not in South Louisiana anymore.
but I still own my house and my whole family is still back home too.
I swear a hurricane could be heading for Greenland and there would still be one model that insists on putting a dot in Terrebonne Parish
but I still own my house and my whole family is still back home too.
I swear a hurricane could be heading for Greenland and there would still be one model that insists on putting a dot in Terrebonne Parish
Upvote
0
Nutriaitch
Retired Super Hero
For sake of reference, the house I still own, and all of my family are roughly at the Red "X"
Which is a terrible spot to be for a Hurricane.
Upvote
0
DubCoffman62
Lazy Slob
Am I seeing this right, this is a Cat 5?For sake of reference, the house I still own, and all of my family are roughly at the Red "X"
Which is a terrible spot to be for a Hurricane.
Upvote
0
It's not even a Hurricane yet.
At most it'll be a Cat 2, but in that location, a Cat 2 is pretty bad all the same.
Upvote
0
Nutriaitch
Retired Super Hero
no, projecting it be a high end Cat-1 with possibility of Cat 2.
Upvote
0
DubCoffman62
Lazy Slob
I was trying to match the color and got confused, thank God I was wrong.
Upvote
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Nutriaitch
Retired Super Hero
looking like they're pretty well locked in on a Calumet Cut (just west of Morgan City) landfall.
as far as hurricane weather goes, this one shouldn't be horrible.
My hometown will need to keep an eye on the surge. We have new "Hurricane Protection" Levees now that are allegedly built to protect against storms stronger than this one.
So hopefully those things are what they claim them to be.
as far as hurricane weather goes, this one shouldn't be horrible.
My hometown will need to keep an eye on the surge. We have new "Hurricane Protection" Levees now that are allegedly built to protect against storms stronger than this one.
So hopefully those things are what they claim them to be.
Upvote
0
Nutriaitch
Retired Super Hero
welp, unless this thing takes a wicked hard turn due North, my house back home will once again taking a direct hit.
should be in the eye in next hour or two (three?).
Red "X" is my hometown.
should be in the eye in next hour or two (three?).
Red "X" is my hometown.
Upvote
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Nutriaitch
Retired Super Hero
Radar says they in the eye.
Dad says they not in clearing for sure.
Dad says they not in clearing for sure.
Upvote
0