Way Too Late Statistical Breakdown
Let's start with the worst matchup for the Buckeyes; when Ohio State is running the ball.
Ohio State has the 94th ranked rushing offense. Those anemic numbers were compiled against Rushing Defenses whose average ranking is 60.5
What does that tell us?
Absolutely nothing.
Ryan Day is stubbornly developing the running game this year, and is foregoing passing opportunities to do so. He claims he isn't; who are we to believe, him or our lying eyes?
Here's the rub though. At first the Buckeyes looked completely helpless. They couldn't push around Indiana, Western Kentucky, or even Youngstown State.
Then, a couple of weeks ago, the Buckeyes did a little better in the running game. It was against the Boilermakers, so that means nothing, right?
Well... that's what I would usually say. But there was a difference. On some plays... not on every play, but once in awhile, there was some evidence of actual movement on the line of scrimmage. It was still Purdue, so... nothing to write home about (nothing that happens in west lafayette is worth writing home about). But it was the first time it happened all season. They had played bad defenses before and not gotten push. So here they were, against a bad defense, getting push once in awhile. As cringe-inducing as it may be, that was undeniable progress.
Then last week happened. 1.9 ypc ... Thud amirite?
Well...
Here's the thing. That's the best DL that the Buckeyes will see until Ann Arbor. ...by a mile. It was probably the best DL that they've seen all year. And once again... on some plays... not on every play, but once in awhile, there was some evidence of actual movement on the line of scrimmage. So they showed they can do it against Purdue. They showed they can do it against PSU. They were horribly inconsistent during both games, but doing it AT ALL was undeniable progress at Purdue. Doing it against a good DL was undeniable progress vs PSU. So where does that leave us?
They are clearly not on a glide path that lands this plane safely by the time they play the Cheaters Up North Towards Saginaw. Day was asked about possibly giving it up and going to an approach based on what they've shown they can do, and he said he believes they can "get there". That means that at some point this running game needs to turn a corner. They need to go from "undeniable" albeit marginal progress to breaking a plunger off in someone.
Can it happen?
How do I know? I'm a numbers guy. My specialty is knowing what numbers can tell you and what they can't. They can tell you that the Buckeyes need to turn a corner to be able to run the ball when they need to. Numbers cannot tell you if the Buckeyes will turn that corner.
Numbers can tell you that the Wisconsin Rushing Defense is ranked 68th. Numbers can also tell you that they compiled those numbers against rushing offenses with an average ranking of 87.86. So the Wisconsin Rushing Defense has compiled a below-average number against really bad competition. So numbers can tell you that if the Buckeyes turn that corner, the Badgers are screwed.
Actually, I think the numbers can tell you that the Badgers are screwed anyway.
Looking at the other side of the Rushing coin, the Badgers are ranked 34th in Rushing Offense (all of this is in Yards per Carry by the way). They have compiled that against rushing defenses with an average ranking of exactly 74th. So the Badger Rushing Offense has done well against below average competition. They'll be running against a silver bullet defense that ranks 11th in rushing defense (still ypc) against rushing offenses that average 73.83, which is as close to similar competition as there is; very close to what the Wisconsin offense faced. That leaves us simply comparing Ohio State's ranking (11) to Wisconsin's (34) and saying, "
Advantage Buckeyes"
When the Buckeyes are throwing the ball, it will be the #24 pass efficiency offense vs the #16 pass efficiency defense. Big showdown, right? eh...
The Buckeyes' PE has been compiled against defenses with an average rank of 38.67, which is about as tough a schedule as you'll find for a passing offense to face. The Badgers' D on the other hand has faced offenses that rank, on average, 94.43. That schedule renders the Wisconsin defense's PE ranking utterly fraudulent. "
Advantage Buckeyes" - much bigger advantage than the "experts" think.
Those with weak stomachs might want to skip the next bit because now we'll look at the matchup when the Badgers take to the air
The Badgers have compiled 116th ranked pass efficiency stats against defenses that are a little above average at 49.14. The Buckeyes on the other hand have the 2nd ranked pass defense after going against teams ranked 68.33 on average in passing offense. While about average, compare that to the supposed #1 pass defense (Penn State), whose average opponent ranking jumped by over 11 points after playing the Buckeyes and is now at 80.5. Or compare to #3 TCUN whose average opponent ranking is a laughable 115.63. Truthfully the Buckeyes have the best pass defense in the country and it's not particularly close. "
Advantage Buckeyes" - plunger style
As for offense in general, (yards per play), this looks like a clash of the not-quite-titans when the Buckeyes have the ball with the 21st ranked Buckeyes trying to move it against the 26th ranked Badgers. But Ohio State's numbers have come against defenses ranked 52.33 on average while Wisconsin's were posted versus teams ranking 91.14 on offense. "
Advantage Buckeyes"
On the other side of the offensive equation, the home team will be bringing the 83rd ranked total offense (ypp) against the Buckeyes' 2nd ranked total defense. As the opponents faced aren't all that different (ranking advantage of 64.71 to 75.33 to Wisconsin's foes), it looks like the Badger offense is going to be borderline helpless against the Silver Bullets.
This brings us at long last to scoring.
When the Buckeyes have the ball, those who like to vomit context-free numbers will tell you that the Badger defense has an advantage. What they won't tell you is that the 20th ranked Badger scoring defense was compiled against offenses with an average rank of 80.86, while the Buckeye offense's #34 ranking came against defenses ranked 53.67. Like it or not, "
Advantage Buckeyes"
Finally, when Wisconsin has the ball, the scoring comparison tells the same story as the yardage comparison. The 78th ranked Badgers are not likely to have much success against the 3rd ranked Silver Bullets, especially as the Buckeyes' opponents rank higher on average (56.00 to 66.43). "
Advantage Buckeyes"
Vegas has the line at -14.5 Buckeyes. They are figuring in location (Madison) and location on the schedule (post PSU). Otherwise, this one is not that close.
...especially if that running game turns the corner
