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ScriptOhio
Everybody is somebody else's weirdo.
They lost to Iowa 34-3, lost to the Juggalos 38-24, and lost to Ped State 24-0; are you sure the wheels are currently still on IU?
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Systems_id
Head Coach
Most likely but close games against Indiana in recent past plus I still get PTSD thinking about road games against unranked teams. Makes me nervous lol.
Of course I was a little nervous for Maryland too.
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Different, non complacent coach this time. And Day knows he has a lot to prove to still get into the CFP. This offense is damn good, and IU doesn't have the same defense they had last year. Not to mention missing Fryfogle at WR, and possibly Penix
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Did Fryfogle get hurt yesterday? I missed that if so. Was hoping to get him and see if Burke could lock him down. I definitely think it'll get ugly for IU if they don't have Penix and Fryfogle (it might either way tbh).
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ScriptOhio
Everybody is somebody else's weirdo.
I don't think so, he was in the game on Indiana's last offensive play of the game, i.e. a 4th and 21 unsuccessful "Hail Mary" from their own 26 yard line.
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Sorry, wrong WR, he tore us up last year. I was thinking of Philyor, both have weird ass names that I confuse
But either way, Tuttle doesn't scare anyone, he doesn't have the run threat of Penix
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bukIpower
Head Coach
Penix isn't a run threat either really... Penix is a better thrower than Tuttle but it hasn't helped IU either way.Sorry, wrong WR, he tore us up last year. I was thinking of Philyor, both have weird ass names that I confuse
But either way, Tuttle doesn't scare anyone, he doesn't have the run threat of Penix
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Buckeyes by 3 touchdowns. I'd say more but the last game I attended in Bloomington still haunts me. Onside kick, wtf?!?!
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DSA -- OSU @ Indiana
Indiana gave Sparty a game, as many here suspected they might, but still fell to 2-4. But those 4 losses have all been at the hands of teams that are ranked 11 or higher. The question then is, "will this be another inexplicable nail-biter?"
The short answer is, "No"
Much of that "No" is based more on watching them play and the fact that Ryan Day seems to make a point of blowing out teams that he feels like he should've beaten worse the year before than it is on the analysis that follows. But for what it's worth, DSA does not disagree.
Notes on Methodology
I'm doing things a little differently now, focusing more on yards per play than before. As it happens, the results differ so little I probably should have done it the old-fashioned way. I still dismiss all games against I-AA (FCS) opponents, but with the expansion of I-A (FBS), I'm not sure how much that helps (Old Dominion is an FBS team now. Yes, that Old Dominion.)
Mid-Season DSA / Comparison to Indiana
Defenses
Ohio State holds teams to 94% of the Yards per Play they gain against their other opponents.
Indiana holds teams to 82% of the Yards per Play they gain against their other opponents.
So is Indiana's defense better?
Here we already find it necessary to look behind the numbers at how Differential Total Defense (DTD) works. This analysis compares your defense to the other defenses that your opponents have played. If your opponents have played good defenses, on average, a good defense might look average based on this analysis. But if your opponents have played really crappy defenses, on average, a good defense might look like the 2005 Buckeyes. That is exactly what Indiana's schedule shows. Against Iowa and Penn State, who have both played decent defenses on average, the Hoosiers' DTD is 1.03 and 1.00 respectively. Very average. Against Cincinnati and Sparty, both of whom have played crappy defenses, the Hoosiers' DTD is 0.58 and 0.54 respectively. Those are great numbers, and if you posted that for a full season, you're a great defense. When you combine those performances though, you get a good, not great defense, which is what Indiana is.
Ohio State, on the other hand, was terrible to start the year and have improved greatly. The Buckeyes' DTD for their first two games was 1.08. It might have seemed worse, but they really did surrender just 8% more yards per play than their first two opponents gain on average; that just looks catastrophic to Ohio State fans. The last 3 games on the other hand have produced a DTD of 0.82, which matches Indiana's number for the season, this in spite of Cruickshank's 75 yard reception in the Rutgers game, thanks to which the Rutgers game has the worst DTD of any game this season (1.18).
But that Rutgers game illustrates the importance of paying more attention to yards than points. When you do that, a different picture emerges.
Ohio State holds teams to 81% of the points they score, on average, against everyone else.
Indiana holds teams to 85% of the points they score, on average, against everyone else.
Here, Indiana might be even a little better than they appear, as that horrific defensive-score fest in Iowa City skewed their Differential Scoring Defense (DSD) pretty substantially (1.26 that day... woof).
Even more noteworthy is the improvement the Buckeyes have made since the Head Coach poked his head into the defensive staff room. The Buckeyes' DSD was 1.22 for the first two games of the year, but has been 0.54 in the last 3 games (0.59 for the last 4). That's going from terrible to outstanding in (almost) a blink.
One might wonder if the Buckeyes' improvement will hold up when they play better offenses.
They won't find out this weekend.
Offenses
Ohio State gains 53% more yards than their opponents typically give up.
Ohio State scores 87% more points than their opponents typically give up.
Indiana gains 9% FEWER yards than their opponents typically give up.
Indiana scores 26% FEWER points than their opponents typically give up.
And Indiana's opponents have played crappy offenses, so those numbers are even worse than they look.
Worse (if you're a Hoosier), is that Ohio State's numbers are artificially low. While the head coach was helping push-start the defense, the offense dropped down to its lowest DTO and DSO for the season for a couple of games (just 23% more points scored against Oregon and Tulsa than they normally give up). In all three conference games, Ohio State's DSO was 2.44 or higher.
Hoosiers bad. Buckeyes phenomenal to a nearly historic level. Not much else to say.
DSA "Prediction"
Combining regular stats with differential stats provides the following "prediction" for the game.
Ohio State: 41-55 points and 472-528 yards
Indiana: 13-15 points and 317-354 yards
That 41 point prediction is heavily skewed by the games where Ryan Day was focused on getting the defense moving, so I wouldn't buy it for a second; 55 points is FAR more likely.
Buckeyes Roll
Take it to the bank
Disclaimer: I will, as always, not be betting real money on this game.
Indiana gave Sparty a game, as many here suspected they might, but still fell to 2-4. But those 4 losses have all been at the hands of teams that are ranked 11 or higher. The question then is, "will this be another inexplicable nail-biter?"
The short answer is, "No"
Much of that "No" is based more on watching them play and the fact that Ryan Day seems to make a point of blowing out teams that he feels like he should've beaten worse the year before than it is on the analysis that follows. But for what it's worth, DSA does not disagree.
Notes on Methodology
I'm doing things a little differently now, focusing more on yards per play than before. As it happens, the results differ so little I probably should have done it the old-fashioned way. I still dismiss all games against I-AA (FCS) opponents, but with the expansion of I-A (FBS), I'm not sure how much that helps (Old Dominion is an FBS team now. Yes, that Old Dominion.)
Mid-Season DSA / Comparison to Indiana
Defenses
Ohio State holds teams to 94% of the Yards per Play they gain against their other opponents.
Indiana holds teams to 82% of the Yards per Play they gain against their other opponents.
So is Indiana's defense better?
Here we already find it necessary to look behind the numbers at how Differential Total Defense (DTD) works. This analysis compares your defense to the other defenses that your opponents have played. If your opponents have played good defenses, on average, a good defense might look average based on this analysis. But if your opponents have played really crappy defenses, on average, a good defense might look like the 2005 Buckeyes. That is exactly what Indiana's schedule shows. Against Iowa and Penn State, who have both played decent defenses on average, the Hoosiers' DTD is 1.03 and 1.00 respectively. Very average. Against Cincinnati and Sparty, both of whom have played crappy defenses, the Hoosiers' DTD is 0.58 and 0.54 respectively. Those are great numbers, and if you posted that for a full season, you're a great defense. When you combine those performances though, you get a good, not great defense, which is what Indiana is.
Ohio State, on the other hand, was terrible to start the year and have improved greatly. The Buckeyes' DTD for their first two games was 1.08. It might have seemed worse, but they really did surrender just 8% more yards per play than their first two opponents gain on average; that just looks catastrophic to Ohio State fans. The last 3 games on the other hand have produced a DTD of 0.82, which matches Indiana's number for the season, this in spite of Cruickshank's 75 yard reception in the Rutgers game, thanks to which the Rutgers game has the worst DTD of any game this season (1.18).
But that Rutgers game illustrates the importance of paying more attention to yards than points. When you do that, a different picture emerges.
Ohio State holds teams to 81% of the points they score, on average, against everyone else.
Indiana holds teams to 85% of the points they score, on average, against everyone else.
Here, Indiana might be even a little better than they appear, as that horrific defensive-score fest in Iowa City skewed their Differential Scoring Defense (DSD) pretty substantially (1.26 that day... woof).
Even more noteworthy is the improvement the Buckeyes have made since the Head Coach poked his head into the defensive staff room. The Buckeyes' DSD was 1.22 for the first two games of the year, but has been 0.54 in the last 3 games (0.59 for the last 4). That's going from terrible to outstanding in (almost) a blink.
One might wonder if the Buckeyes' improvement will hold up when they play better offenses.
They won't find out this weekend.
Offenses
Ohio State gains 53% more yards than their opponents typically give up.
Ohio State scores 87% more points than their opponents typically give up.
Indiana gains 9% FEWER yards than their opponents typically give up.
Indiana scores 26% FEWER points than their opponents typically give up.
And Indiana's opponents have played crappy offenses, so those numbers are even worse than they look.
Worse (if you're a Hoosier), is that Ohio State's numbers are artificially low. While the head coach was helping push-start the defense, the offense dropped down to its lowest DTO and DSO for the season for a couple of games (just 23% more points scored against Oregon and Tulsa than they normally give up). In all three conference games, Ohio State's DSO was 2.44 or higher.
Hoosiers bad. Buckeyes phenomenal to a nearly historic level. Not much else to say.
DSA "Prediction"
Combining regular stats with differential stats provides the following "prediction" for the game.
Ohio State: 41-55 points and 472-528 yards
Indiana: 13-15 points and 317-354 yards
That 41 point prediction is heavily skewed by the games where Ryan Day was focused on getting the defense moving, so I wouldn't buy it for a second; 55 points is FAR more likely.
Buckeyes Roll
Take it to the bank
Disclaimer: I will, as always, not be betting real money on this game.
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