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tOSU at Indiana, Oct 23rd, 7:30 PM, ABC

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DaddyBigBucks said:
DSA -- OSU @ Indiana

Indiana gave Sparty a game, as many here suspected they might, but still fell to 2-4. But those 4 losses have all been at the hands of teams that are ranked 11 or higher. The question then is, "will this be another inexplicable nail-biter?"

The short answer is, "No"

Much of that "No" is based more on watching them play and the fact that Ryan Day seems to make a point of blowing out teams that he feels like he should've beaten worse the year before than it is on the analysis that follows. But for what it's worth, DSA does not disagree.

Notes on Methodology

I'm doing things a little differently now, focusing more on yards per play than before. As it happens, the results differ so little I probably should have done it the old-fashioned way. I still dismiss all games against I-AA (FCS) opponents, but with the expansion of I-A (FBS), I'm not sure how much that helps (Old Dominion is an FBS team now. Yes, that Old Dominion.)

Mid-Season DSA / Comparison to Indiana

Defenses

Ohio State holds teams to 94% of the Yards per Play they gain against their other opponents.
Indiana holds teams to 82% of the Yards per Play they gain against their other opponents.

So is Indiana's defense better?

Here we already find it necessary to look behind the numbers at how Differential Total Defense (DTD) works. This analysis compares your defense to the other defenses that your opponents have played. If your opponents have played good defenses, on average, a good defense might look average based on this analysis. But if your opponents have played really crappy defenses, on average, a good defense might look like the 2005 Buckeyes. That is exactly what Indiana's schedule shows. Against Iowa and Penn State, who have both played decent defenses on average, the Hoosiers' DTD is 1.03 and 1.00 respectively. Very average. Against Cincinnati and Sparty, both of whom have played crappy defenses, the Hoosiers' DTD is 0.58 and 0.54 respectively. Those are great numbers, and if you posted that for a full season, you're a great defense. When you combine those performances though, you get a good, not great defense, which is what Indiana is.

Ohio State, on the other hand, was terrible to start the year and have improved greatly. The Buckeyes' DTD for their first two games was 1.08. It might have seemed worse, but they really did surrender just 8% more yards per play than their first two opponent gain on average; that just looks catastrophic to Ohio State fans. The last 3 games on the other hand have produced a DTD of 0.82, which matches Indiana's number for the season, this in spite of Cruickshank's 75 yard reception in the Rutgers game, thanks to which the Rutgers game has the worst DTD of any game this season (1.18).

But that Rutgers game illustrates the importance of paying more attention to yards than points. When you do that, a different picture emerges.

Ohio State holds teams to 81% of the points they score, on average, against everyone else.
Indiana holds teams to 85% of the points they score, on average, against everyone else.

Here, Indiana might be even a little better than they appear, as that horrific defensive-score fest in Iowa City skewed their Differential Scoring Defense (DSD) pretty substantially (1.26 that day... woof).

Even more noteworthy is the improvement the Buckeyes have made since the Head Coach poked his head into the defensive staff room. The Buckeyes' DSD was 1.22 for the first two games of the year, but has been 0.54 in the last 3 games (0.59 for the last 4). That's going from terrible to outstanding in (almost) a blink.

One might wonder if the Buckeyes' improvement will hold up when they play better offenses.

They won't find out this weekend.

Offenses

Ohio State gains 53% more yards than their opponents typically give up.
Ohio State scores 87% more points than their opponents typically give up.
Indiana gains 9% FEWER yards than their opponents typically give up.
Indiana scores 26% FEWER points than their opponents typically give up.

And Indiana's opponents have played crappy offenses, so those numbers are even worse than they look.

Worse (if you're a Hoosier), is that Ohio State's numbers are artificially low. While the head coach was helping push-start the defense, the offense dropped down to its lowest DTO and DSO for the season for a couple of games (just 23% more points scored against Oregon and Tulsa than they normally give up). In all three conference games, Ohio State's DSO was 2.44 or higher.

Hoosiers bad. Buckeyes phenomenal to a nearly historic level. Not much else to say.

DSA "Prediction"

Combining regular stats with differential stats provides the following "prediction" for the game.

Ohio State: 41-55 points and 472-528 yards
Indiana: 13-15 points and 317-354 yards

That 41 point prediction is heavily skewed by the games where Ryan Day was focused on getting the defense moving, so I wouldn't buy it for a second; 55 points is FAR more likely.

Buckeyes Roll

Take it to the bank

Disclaimer: I will, as always, not be betting real money on this game.
Click to expand...
Damn great work!!!

Split the difference. Buckeyes 48 and IU 14.
 
Upvote 0
DaddyBigBucks said:
DSA -- OSU @ Indiana

Indiana gave Sparty a game, as many here suspected they might, but still fell to 2-4. But those 4 losses have all been at the hands of teams that are ranked 11 or higher. The question then is, "will this be another inexplicable nail-biter?"

The short answer is, "No"

Much of that "No" is based more on watching them play and the fact that Ryan Day seems to make a point of blowing out teams that he feels like he should've beaten worse the year before than it is on the analysis that follows. But for what it's worth, DSA does not disagree.

Notes on Methodology

I'm doing things a little differently now, focusing more on yards per play than before. As it happens, the results differ so little I probably should have done it the old-fashioned way. I still dismiss all games against I-AA (FCS) opponents, but with the expansion of I-A (FBS), I'm not sure how much that helps (Old Dominion is an FBS team now. Yes, that Old Dominion.)

Mid-Season DSA / Comparison to Indiana

Defenses

Ohio State holds teams to 94% of the Yards per Play they gain against their other opponents.
Indiana holds teams to 82% of the Yards per Play they gain against their other opponents.

So is Indiana's defense better?

Here we already find it necessary to look behind the numbers at how Differential Total Defense (DTD) works. This analysis compares your defense to the other defenses that your opponents have played. If your opponents have played good defenses, on average, a good defense might look average based on this analysis. But if your opponents have played really crappy defenses, on average, a good defense might look like the 2005 Buckeyes. That is exactly what Indiana's schedule shows. Against Iowa and Penn State, who have both played decent defenses on average, the Hoosiers' DTD is 1.03 and 1.00 respectively. Very average. Against Cincinnati and Sparty, both of whom have played crappy defenses, the Hoosiers' DTD is 0.58 and 0.54 respectively. Those are great numbers, and if you posted that for a full season, you're a great defense. When you combine those performances though, you get a good, not great defense, which is what Indiana is.

Ohio State, on the other hand, was terrible to start the year and have improved greatly. The Buckeyes' DTD for their first two games was 1.08. It might have seemed worse, but they really did surrender just 8% more yards per play than their first two opponent gain on average; that just looks catastrophic to Ohio State fans. The last 3 games on the other hand have produced a DTD of 0.82, which matches Indiana's number for the season, this in spite of Cruickshank's 75 yard reception in the Rutgers game, thanks to which the Rutgers game has the worst DTD of any game this season (1.18).

But that Rutgers game illustrates the importance of paying more attention to yards than points. When you do that, a different picture emerges.

Ohio State holds teams to 81% of the points they score, on average, against everyone else.
Indiana holds teams to 85% of the points they score, on average, against everyone else.

Here, Indiana might be even a little better than they appear, as that horrific defensive-score fest in Iowa City skewed their Differential Scoring Defense (DSD) pretty substantially (1.26 that day... woof).

Even more noteworthy is the improvement the Buckeyes have made since the Head Coach poked his head into the defensive staff room. The Buckeyes' DSD was 1.22 for the first two games of the year, but has been 0.54 in the last 3 games (0.59 for the last 4). That's going from terrible to outstanding in (almost) a blink.

One might wonder if the Buckeyes' improvement will hold up when they play better offenses.

They won't find out this weekend.

Offenses

Ohio State gains 53% more yards than their opponents typically give up.
Ohio State scores 87% more points than their opponents typically give up.
Indiana gains 9% FEWER yards than their opponents typically give up.
Indiana scores 26% FEWER points than their opponents typically give up.

And Indiana's opponents have played crappy offenses, so those numbers are even worse than they look.

Worse (if you're a Hoosier), is that Ohio State's numbers are artificially low. While the head coach was helping push-start the defense, the offense dropped down to its lowest DTO and DSO for the season for a couple of games (just 23% more points scored against Oregon and Tulsa than they normally give up). In all three conference games, Ohio State's DSO was 2.44 or higher.

Hoosiers bad. Buckeyes phenomenal to a nearly historic level. Not much else to say.

DSA "Prediction"

Combining regular stats with differential stats provides the following "prediction" for the game.

Ohio State: 41-55 points and 472-528 yards
Indiana: 13-15 points and 317-354 yards

That 41 point prediction is heavily skewed by the games where Ryan Day was focused on getting the defense moving, so I wouldn't buy it for a second; 55 points is FAR more likely.

Buckeyes Roll

Take it to the bank

Disclaimer: I will, as always, not be betting real money on this game.
Click to expand...

Et Voila! I figured if I helped get the ol juices flowing DBB would come out firing! Well done as always.
 
Upvote 0
IU's Tom Allen changes plan to redshirt QB Donaven McCulley after Michael Penix Jr. injury

Tom Allen's original plan with freshman quarterback and former Lawrence North star Donaven McCulley was to find four opportunities for him to make an appearance this season but no more, thereby keeping him eligible for a redshirt.

But thanks to starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr.'s separated left shoulder, that is not Allen's plan anymore.

McCulley got his first action Saturday in Indiana's 20-15 loss to Michigan State, taking three snaps, rushing the ball twice for eight yards and also throwing a backward lateral. Especially as long as Penix is out and redshirt junior Jack Tuttle is starting, Allen said he plans to look for more opportunities for the former IndyStar Mr. Football finalist.

"We were going to (redshirt him) and now we're not," Allen said at his news conference Monday. "When Michael went down, we basically made the decision that he would have to go. Before that, the thought was that we just use those four games in a judicious way. Now, what you got is he's training to be the next guy in. We expect to see him more. We kind of even thought we would use him more on Saturday."

Allen said the decision is not a sign the Hoosiers know more about Penix's timetable for a return than they have previously indicated. He said the prognosis remains "week to week," and it remains possible for him to have a swift return.

"We're being honest in the fact that we don't know the length of time," Allen said. "We don't know. We've been told it can be a short period or long. ... Because of that, (McCulley) is the No. 2. He is the next guy in the game if something would happen to Jack. We have to prepare him as such and take a long-term approach with that and not think, 'Hey, we're still going to try to protect him for those four games.' To me, we just have to take that out of your head."

Entire article: https://www.heraldtimesonline.com/s...nges-thinking-on-donaven-mcculley/8503082002/

Doesn't sound like Penix will be ready to play Saturday to me, especially since he is left handed. Besides this is his 4th year in the program, although he does have another year of eligibility if he wants it. Indiana at 0-3 in the B1G East and they're definitely not playing for a B1G championship this year. It might be a good idea to see what the other QBs can do in preparation for next season regardless if Penix comes back or not.
 
Upvote 0
Watch: IU football’s Tom Allen Monday morning press conference — Ohio State week (with transcript)



Q. Ohio State is obviously an incredibly explosive offense. How much of a test is that for your defense? What is the one thing you feel you need to take away in terms to have success?

TOM ALLEN: Yeah, they create a lot of issues. They’re just so explosive. Their receiver core is different than you usually will see. They got three receivers that are as good as anybody you’re going to face in the country. So that puts a lot of stress on you. Talented quarterback. Talented running backs as well.

But I just think not allowing those explosive pass plays to me is really… Just get guys so wide open it seems. It’s tough. Puts a ton of stress on you. But obviously you got to stop the run, there’s no doubt about that. Just giving those up, that’s where they can really pile it on, score fast, be able to make it difficult on you as well.

I think that core concept of pressuring the quarterback, being able to do things there with stressing him out mentally and physically is going to be key.

Q. Obviously one offensive touchdown in three Big Ten games. What do you see as the big issues there? Why do you think the numbers are what they are?

TOM ALLEN: To me, we’re turning the ball over. You can go through, look at those games, that’s number one. Number two, the red zone issues. To me when you get down in there, I know you can go ahead and say what you want about those three Big Ten teams, but they have really, really good defenses, all three of them. They’re really good in the red zone.

You get in that area of the field, it’s even harder to score on those really good defenses. At the same time that’s reality, that’s what it is. You just got to be able to do some things.

I will say this. You talk about Saturday’s game, we had three opportunities where receivers were open. I thought wide open. We needed to get them the football for a variety of reasons. That’s where you have to execute. You talk about to me that’s really what it comes back to, consistent execution at critical times. Obviously the red zone is a critical time.

Whether it’s the fact you get a long drive, we had several of those, you have to be able to finish through that drive and execute when it counts the most. Right now we’re not doing that. You have to evaluate why. You look at those things, play calling, the scheme, the guys executing. It’s a combination of everything for sure.

At the end of the day players have to make those plays. We got to put them in position to make those plays. You make those plays when you’re confident and decisive. That’s what we got to get to. That’s the part, the numbers are what they are. You see them, I agree with it. Definitely a huge emphasis, going to change some things structurally, how we practice, the things we do down in there. A huge point of emphasis, no question.

Q. Ohio State is a fabulous team, ranked top five. They’re a young team. How do you feel playing a young team like that will work to your team’s advantage?

TOM ALLEN: We are at home. That’s a positive thing. There’s no question they do have some youth, some very talented youth, mind you. But it is youth. Youth is youth. I think you play on the road, expecting a big crowd, a loud crowd. The intensity and the energy, like we had this past Saturday, like we had at all of our home games, which has been awesome. That plays into that.

That’s the best part of it. We got to be able to in that moment play our best football. There’s no doubt that’s the objective, that’s the goal. That’s what we’re going to do everything within our power to do that against a team that is very, very talented, has a lot of really good football players, and they’re very well-coached.

See entire transcript: https://www.thedailyhoosier.com/wat...s-conference-ohio-state-week-with-transcript/
 
Upvote 0
ScriptOhio said:
Watch: IU football’s Tom Allen Monday morning press conference — Ohio State week (with transcript)



Q. Ohio State is obviously an incredibly explosive offense. How much of a test is that for your defense? What is the one thing you feel you need to take away in terms to have success?

TOM ALLEN: Yeah, they create a lot of issues. They’re just so explosive. Their receiver core is different than you usually will see. They got three receivers that are as good as anybody you’re going to face in the country. So that puts a lot of stress on you. Talented quarterback. Talented running backs as well.

But I just think not allowing those explosive pass plays to me is really… Just get guys so wide open it seems. It’s tough. Puts a ton of stress on you. But obviously you got to stop the run, there’s no doubt about that. Just giving those up, that’s where they can really pile it on, score fast, be able to make it difficult on you as well.

I think that core concept of pressuring the quarterback, being able to do things there with stressing him out mentally and physically is going to be key.

Q. Obviously one offensive touchdown in three Big Ten games. What do you see as the big issues there? Why do you think the numbers are what they are?

TOM ALLEN: To me, we’re turning the ball over. You can go through, look at those games, that’s number one. Number two, the red zone issues. To me when you get down in there, I know you can go ahead and say what you want about those three Big Ten teams, but they have really, really good defenses, all three of them. They’re really good in the red zone.

You get in that area of the field, it’s even harder to score on those really good defenses. At the same time that’s reality, that’s what it is. You just got to be able to do some things.

I will say this. You talk about Saturday’s game, we had three opportunities where receivers were open. I thought wide open. We needed to get them the football for a variety of reasons. That’s where you have to execute. You talk about to me that’s really what it comes back to, consistent execution at critical times. Obviously the red zone is a critical time.

Whether it’s the fact you get a long drive, we had several of those, you have to be able to finish through that drive and execute when it counts the most. Right now we’re not doing that. You have to evaluate why. You look at those things, play calling, the scheme, the guys executing. It’s a combination of everything for sure.

At the end of the day players have to make those plays. We got to put them in position to make those plays. You make those plays when you’re confident and decisive. That’s what we got to get to. That’s the part, the numbers are what they are. You see them, I agree with it. Definitely a huge emphasis, going to change some things structurally, how we practice, the things we do down in there. A huge point of emphasis, no question.

Q. Ohio State is a fabulous team, ranked top five. They’re a young team. How do you feel playing a young team like that will work to your team’s advantage?

TOM ALLEN: We are at home. That’s a positive thing. There’s no question they do have some youth, some very talented youth, mind you. But it is youth. Youth is youth. I think you play on the road, expecting a big crowd, a loud crowd. The intensity and the energy, like we had this past Saturday, like we had at all of our home games, which has been awesome. That plays into that.

That’s the best part of it. We got to be able to in that moment play our best football. There’s no doubt that’s the objective, that’s the goal. That’s what we’re going to do everything within our power to do that against a team that is very, very talented, has a lot of really good football players, and they’re very well-coached.

See entire transcript: https://www.thedailyhoosier.com/wat...s-conference-ohio-state-week-with-transcript/
Click to expand...

So the goal on offense is to play a true freshman QB at night vs Ohio State and on defense it's to stop the rum while not giving up big plays. That doesn't seem like a great mixture.
 
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TOM ALLEN: We are at home. That’s a positive thing. There’s no question they do have some youth, some very talented youth, mind you. But it is youth. Youth is youth. I think you play on the road, expecting a big crowd, a loud crowd. The intensity and the energy, like we had this past Saturday, like we had at all of our home games, which has been awesome. That plays into that.
Click to expand...
Ohio State is 56-2-2 in the last 60 games against Indiana, and they've actually played better on the road against Indiana than they do against them at home. Ohio State is also 17-0 at Indiana when Ohio State is ranked and Indiana is not. Last year was probably the best chance since 1988 for them to beat Ohio State and they failed...in fact their only conference loss last year was to Ohio State. Now they're back to their normal selves while Ohio State is starting to blossom into peak form. The 21-point win prediction for Ohio State is accurate...for the first half only.
 
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bukIpower said:
Would love to see us hold IU to less than 15 since thats what Sparty did and because IU is not good on offense right now. For sure though anything under 21 is a good sign.
Click to expand...
Not good on offense right now? They do have one actual TD against 3 B1G defenses, and it came in their most recent game, so they’re improving.
 
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