Okay, here are my thoughts on the 2009 version of The Game:
First, there is no way that Michigan can win this game. The talent gap between the Buckeyes and the Wolverines is just too large, and no amount of game planning or pulling out all the stops or rivalry emotion or "win one for The Shredder" or whatever is going to close that gap enough for the Wolverines to pull off the upset....
However, Ohio State could still lose this game, which is another story altogether. If the Buckeyes come out flat and make a lot of turnovers and commit a bunch of penalties, then we'll have another Purdue on our hands. But even a Purdue-like performance from the Buckeyes won't guarantee a victory for the Wolverines. Despite being as flat as a pancake and committing five turnovers and playing by far their worst game of the season, Ohio State still had a chance to beat Purdue down the stretch. So, the best case scenario for Wolverines is this - if Ohio State shoots off both feet, then Michigan might be able to pull off a narrow victory if they play a nearly-perfect game.
Now a lot of people are giving Michigan the edge in the "intangibles" because they are playing for a .500 season, for the right to play in a bowl game, to avoid the embarrassment of back-to-back losing seasons, etc. Well, all of those same factors were in play last Saturday, and what did the Wolverines do? They came out and laid an egg, giving up 45 points to a Wisconsin squad that had been averaging under 30 per game, and getting totally smoked after halftime. And if you saw that game, then you saw that the Wolverines basically quit against Wisconsin, just like they did against Penn State and Illinois in two of the previous three weeks. Is there any reason to believe that the Wolverines won't quit tomorrow, and that they will suddenly decide to lay it on the line against Ohio State and play their best game of the season, just for the opportunity to go to some low level bowl game? Especially considering that they could have secured their bowl eligibility four weeks ago with a win over Penn State? Or three weeks ago win a win over Illinois? Or two weeks ago with a win over Purdue? Or last week with a win over Wisconsin? But the sirens will collectively go off tomorrow at noon, and a sense of urgency will take over the hearts and souls of the Mighty Men of Michigan...? I doubt it.
And let's take a look back at Ohio State for a moment.... Last Saturday, the Buckeyes had to beat Iowa to secure a Big Ten championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl. Did Ohio State come out fired up? Were the Buckeyes aggressive from the opening kickoff to the final gun? Was there a lot of emotion from the team, either on the field or on the sidelines? If you watched the Iowa game, and I assume that you did, you have to answer all of those questions in the negative. Just think, a conference title and a trip to Pasadena on the line - you win and you're in - and the Buckeyes came out flat, and remained flat for much of the game ... and almost lost the game because of it.
But Michigan won't be like that, will they? The Wolverines are going to be totally fired up tomorrow because they want so badly to play in some fifth-rate bowl game against a school that they've probably never even heard of right? And the Wolverines can't even play the role of spoiler - Ohio State is already the Big Ten champ and the Rose Bowl representative no matter what happens in The Game, so a Michigan win dcan do nothing to ruin the Buckeyes' season. All that Michigan has left is bragging rights, which really ain't worth very much, even in a rivalry this big.
And let's consider for a moment the psyche of the Michigan players right now.... Back-to-back horrible seasons ... setting a bunch of negative records ... a coach on the hot seat ... a pending NCAA investigation ... in short, a season spiraling out of control. Are you going to come out tomorrow and leave your blood and guts on the field, just so that you can claim bragging rights in one of your many rivalry games, salvage a .500 regular season, and go to some crappy bowl game? Or are you going to say t yourself, "The Hell with this! I hope I don't get injured in a meaningless game, and I really don't want another fifteen practices right now, I just want the season to be over with, thank you." If you don't think that there are any Wolverines in the latter category, then you don't know much about athletics and competition. The mind always quits before the body, and I'm willing to bet that a lot of Wolverines have already quit on The Game before even suiting up, rivalry or not ... and those who haven't quit yet just might do so if they get punched in the nose early and often by the Buckeyes.
And that brings us back to the Buckeyes. Michigan has nothing to play for, really, except for a little bit of pride. Ohio State's already proven that it's still the big dog in the Big Ten, and nothing that happens tomorrow will change that fact. However, if the Buckeyes come out and act like the can win simply by showing up, then they might very well lose The Game. Michigan is down, but they aren't quite out, and early on the Buckeyes must stomp out what little life remains in the Wolverines; if the Bucks let the Wolves hang around for too long in this Game, then anything can happen, much of it not good for Ohio State. The Buckeyes need to get up early and keep pounding on the Wolverines until their ears bleed ... and then pound on them some more.
And all that talk about the intangibles favoring Michigan is just that - a lot of talk. Ohio State will be ready for this Game - they always have been under Jim Tressel - and they will have just as much desire for bragging rights as Michigan, and probably more. No one on this team has ever lost to Michigan, and no one wants to start now. And despite the Big Ten title and the Rose Bowl bid, this team still has a lot to prove - to the fans, to the media, and most importantly to themselves. Even though we all knew in advance that 2009 was going to be somewhat of a rebuilding year, this team has suffered through a heartbreaking loss to USC and a bad loss to Purdue ... they have had their own fans calling for the QB to move to WR, for the offensive linemen to be exiled to Bowling Green, for the offensive scheme to be scrapped, and for the head coach to be fired ... they have had the media slamming them for losing, for winning ugly, for winning not pretty enough, and even for having the nerve to show up in yet another BCS bowl game ... but a win against Michigan - a big, fat, blow-out win against That School Up North - would make everything else forgotten, and would set the stage for a monumental season in 2010.
This is our year, again: Ohio State 37, Michigan 17.
