How has the perception of Ohio State, and Michigan's chances of beating Ohio State, changed among Michigan fans as a result of last year’s win?
Hole: In terms of game week, I’m not sure it’s any different, but overall, I feel like (before this week) there was a general feeling that the Wolverines have found the secret formula to taking down Ohio State. While most outside of the fan base have focused on the losses of Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, the defensive line has been very good, particularly at stopping the run, and is on pace to eclipse last year’s sack numbers.
This week, however, there’s a lot more uncertainty given that Michigan has not shown much ability offensively outside of the run game beyond Week 6, and with Blake Corum, the heart of the offense, being questionable for The Game, I think some of that optimism and enthusiasm has been greatly tempered.
That said, it’s no longer a false hope that fans have had in the recent past, nor is there an overall feeling of doom — save for the Corum injury, along with the others who didn’t play last week. Fans expect a win, though it is greatly acknowledged that it’s no sure thing.
Do you believe this year’s Michigan team is better or worse than the team that beat Ohio State last year? In what ways are the Wolverines better this year, and in what ways were they better last year?
Hole: To me, it’s a bit of a mixed bag.
The defense, overall, has played better than it has at any time in the Jim Harbaugh era, even if it doesn’t feel quite as dominant as, say, the 2016 or 2018 teams. Statistically, it’s not even a question. However, the only offenses that Michigan has faced with a pulse are Penn State (44th) and Maryland (45th). So, I’m not entirely sure it’s been properly tested to really indicate that it’s better.
Offensively, the run game has been even more prolific than it was last year, but the pass game has really fallen off since the Indiana game. The very light nonconference certainly made the pass game look like it was going to be the focal point and much better than what we’ve seen from any Michigan team in recent memory, and the first few conference games were solid on that front, but since then, there’s real, valid concern about the Wolverines’ ability to throw the football. At the beginning of the season through Week 6 at Indiana, it was more a question about the deep ball, but now it’s pretty much everything. When J.J. McCarthy seems to be on the money, receivers don’t come down with it. When receivers are open, McCarthy has missed quite regularly. The receivers, as a whole, have been inconsistent and aren’t making the same big, explosive plays they made a year ago.
Weirdly, the numbers aren’t too far off from last year on that front, but it felt like the pass game could win games and make big plays when necessary. At this point, I’m not sure that it can.
As far as what’s better, I do think the offensive line is better than what we saw from the Joe Moore Award winners last year, and that’s in large part due to Olu Oluwatimi transferring in. I think Sherrone Moore deserves a ton of credit, given that the line has seen injuries all year long (Trevor Keegan has missed several games at different points in the season, while Trente Jones went out at Indiana and hasn’t reclaimed his starting job after returning to full strength in recent weeks; Ryan Hayes missed the Rutgers game but returned against Nebraska). The line has still thrived, as has the defensive line in terms of generally stopping the run game while being adept when it’s mattered in the pass game. There have been some lapses in the latter, but when needed, the pressure has stepped up.
Lastly, the play calling has not been nearly as creative as it was last year, but it’s been more effective, mostly – which doesn’t make sense to me. Perhaps that’s been the issue in the pass game, as Michigan started out the year working with a lot of underneath routes and some creative schemes but has since gone to more basic go routes or low-percentage passes. Last year, the end-arounds were prevalent, but they’ve been nonexistent this year. I expect all of that to change on Saturday because I think Michigan’s felt it hasn’t needed to be creative to win, whereas it will be the only opportunity at The Horseshoe.
Do you expect Blake Corum to play against Ohio State? If he is sidelined or not his usual self, how big of a blow would that be to Michigan’s offense, and how do you think the Wolverines can overcome that?
Hole: I honestly have no idea, but I don’t think his chances are good. How much of that is real or subterfuge from Schembechler Hall remains to be seen, but even if he does play, I don’t expect him to be near 100%. Honestly, that’s the biggest blow this team could possibly have — it would be akin to Ohio State having to sideline C.J. Stroud.
When Michigan could get nothing going in the pass game, it would just rely heavily on Corum, and he would produce and provide. The Wolverines are hyper-reliant on the run game, and Donovan Edwards has been out since the Rutgers game due to an apparent hand injury — and it’s also unclear if he’s available. Freshman C.J. Stokes — who’s shown some promise but has been little-used since fumbling against Maryland in Week 4 — left the Illinois game with injury as well, so Michigan relied on second-year RB Tavierre Dunlap and walk-on Isaiah Gash down the stretch. Neither was particularly productive, but Gash did have a big catch on a fourth-down play to keep the Wolverines’ chances alive on the final drive against the Illini.
If Corum can’t play, it completely changes the offense, and suddenly, Michigan would have to recapture what it was able to do in nonconference — but against the best team, it’s played rather than the three worst. The only way it would be able to overcome Corum not playing would be a somewhat healthy Donovan Edwards being able to shoulder the load, along with Stokes, and the pass game suddenly finding a rhythm it really hasn’t had all year.
