books opened bucks-7 and that number was just too high and was going to drop to at least 6 even if speight were announced out on monday or something. went to 6.5 pretty quickly from guys taking the 7 just to take it (and books hang openers higher on purpose just to guage what the wiseguys wanna do, because most of the public will usually come in on OSU regardless of the number, and that inflates the line)..if they needed to buy back off of it later in the week after injury/weather news etc they would, but scUM originally catching a full touchdown here was pretty decent value, strictly from a capping perspective.
it started moving a little bit with more news coming out and just natural progression thru the week, but sharps have really only be taking scUM+6 and a maybe the couple 5.5s that popped up but most anything under that is straight gambling in this spot unless you know something so most of the money coming in to move it down to 5 is small public outside of a couple decent hits from some smart guys. im not seeing any large michigan positions at 5.5 so it looks like bits and pieces adding up from guys chasing the sharp moves off the 6.
might come down another .5 coming up through the morning when most of the public fires, but the real info comes about 5-10mins before kick and whatever big moves you see then are sharps that waited to see where it would end up. could see it drop to 4.5 from the volume just bc this is a very heavily-bet game and jump back up to 5 or 5.5 and that'd be pro money. 4.5 or 5 seems about right to me..but if it tanks and closes at 3.5 or less, buckle up
total has dropped a full 7 also with most of the volume on the over, and sitting at 44.5 with a 44 out there right now, so that's mostly sharp
/gambletard
go bucks