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Game Thread Sugar Bowl: tOSU vs Arkansas, Tue, Jan 4th, 8:30 ET ESPN

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Gatorubet;1847603; said:
Link?
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OK, here it is, the long-awaited, highly anticipated, final and official SmoovP Sugar Bowl Prediction™.

After careful analysis of all available data, weeks and weeks of educating myself about The Ohio State University Football Squad - its tendencies, strengths, weaknesses, opponents, schedule, conference, coaches, players, history, tradition, mascot, cheerleaders and etc., etc., I can find no clear statistical advantage for either team.

It is my belief that any statistics that show an advantage for either team can be accounted for by differences in style of play, relative opponent strengths and weaknesses, strength of schedule and whatnot, or when things are parsed very finely, are offset by a competing strength vs. weakness.

For instance: tOSU advantage in turnovers can be offset by the Arkansas advantage in sacks and tackles for loss.

Our relative strengths and weaknesses match up in a way that is almost uncanny any way you break it down: The outstanding Arkansas offense vs. the outstanding tOSU defense, Arkansas' deep and talented receivers vs. tOSU very talented defensive backs, Arkansas' quick strike ability vs. tOSU long, clock eating drive abilities, Arkansas' BCS hunger vs. tOSU BCS experience, highly talented coaching staff on both side of the field. I could go on and on and on.

This is as close to a straight up pick 'em as you will ever find. Our national rankings of #6 and #8 serve as proof that I am not alone in this thinking.

So what's left to try and make a prediction aside from blind homerism, intangibles, gut feeling and hope?

Not much, but it must be attempted, so we forge ahead.

Here's where I finally arrived: Over the course of the season, Arkansas has faced teams with similar capabilities and tendencies as tOSU - not all in one outstanding package like we will see tonight mind you - but tOSU isn't likely to throw anything at Arkansas that they have not seen before. From Alabama and LSU's defenses, to the Mississippi State grinding offense, to Cam Newton and Chris Relf's creative running from the QB position and more, Arkansas has experience trying to match up.

The same thing cannot be said for tOSU defense vs. the Arkansas passing game. tOSU simply has not faced a passing attack like they will see vs. Arkansas.

Add to that, the potential for the recent NCAA issues having a negative effect on tOSU preparations.

I will also claim a couple of intangibles - A once proud program 30 years removed from its former glory, Arkansas is starved for this game. Arkansas fans will be at the game in greater numbers and will be worked into a frenzy by kickoff and the crowd will be tremendous.


Arkansas 28
tOSU 24


Arkansas covers the spread and everyone gets rich.

Here's to a clean, injury-free game, and win or lose, I'll be back to take my lumps or to give you yours.
 
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Fratteries;1847571; said:
I'm asking this is a none rude, respectful way, where are all your fans? I've been down here in Orleans for two days and it's all Arkansas.
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I am not down there but I would think that with all the fake outrage in Ohio over Goldpantsgate it took the furver out of alot of would be travelers..... I anticipate a hog majority....
 
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SmoovP;1847636; said:
After careful analysis of all available data, weeks and weeks of educating myself about The Ohio State University Football Squad - its tendencies, strengths, weaknesses, opponents, schedule, conference, coaches, players, history, tradition, mascot, cheerleaders and etc., etc., I can find no clear statistical advantage for either team.
Click to expand...

:nerd:
 
Upvote 0
SmoovP;1847636; said:
OK, here it is, the long-awaited, highly anticipated, final and official SmoovP Sugar Bowl Prediction?.

After careful analysis of all available data, weeks and weeks of educating myself about The Ohio State University Football Squad - its tendencies, strengths, weaknesses, opponents, schedule, conference, coaches, players, history, tradition, mascot, cheerleaders and etc., etc., I can find no clear statistical advantage for either team.

It is my belief that any statistics that show an advantage for either team can be accounted for by differences in style of play, relative opponent strengths and weaknesses, strength of schedule and whatnot, or when things are parsed very finely, are offset by a competing strength vs. weakness.

For instance: tOSU advantage in turnovers can be offset by the Arkansas advantage in sacks and tackles for loss.

Our relative strengths and weaknesses match up in a way that is almost uncanny any way you break it down: The outstanding Arkansas offense vs. the outstanding tOSU defense, Arkansas' deep and talented receivers vs. tOSU very talented defensive backs, Arkansas' quick strike ability vs. tOSU long, clock eating drive abilities, Arkansas' BCS hunger vs. tOSU BCS experience, highly talented coaching staff on both side of the field. I could go on and on and on.

This is as close to a straight up pick 'em as you will ever find. Our national rankings of #6 and #8 serve as proof that I am not alone in this thinking.

So what's left to try and make a prediction aside from blind homerism, intangibles, gut feeling and hope?

Not much, but it must be attempted, so we forge ahead.

Here's where I finally arrived: Over the course of the season, Arkansas has faced teams with similar capabilities and tendencies as tOSU - not all in one outstanding package like we will see tonight mind you - but tOSU isn't likely to throw anything at Arkansas that they have not seen before. From Alabama and LSU's defenses, to the Mississippi State grinding offense, to Cam Newton and Chris Relf's creative running from the QB position and more, Arkansas has experience trying to match up.

The same thing cannot be said for tOSU defense vs. the Arkansas passing game. tOSU simply has not faced a passing attack like they will see vs. Arkansas.

Add to that, the potential for the recent NCAA issues having a negative effect on tOSU preparations.

I will also claim a couple of intangibles - A once proud program 30 years removed from its former glory, Arkansas is starved for this game. Arkansas fans will be at the game in greater numbers and will be worked into a frenzy by kickoff and the crowd will be tremendous.


Arkansas 28
tOSU 24


Arkansas covers the spread and everyone gets rich.

Here's to a clean, injury-free game, and win or lose, I'll be back to take my lumps or to give you yours.
Click to expand...

Good summary, my only thing is bolded. Keep in mind Pryor is very hard to tackle.
 
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I think Cameron Heyward comes up with a BIG game. There were times in 2009 when he literally manhandled offensive lines. I hope he can go out with a bang. The shortest path to Ryan Mallett is a straight line, and unfortunately for some poor Arkansas offensive lineman, he's in the way.

Unless you're concerned with Mallett scrambling. LOLZ.
 
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