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Game Thread Southern Cal 18, at tOSU 15 (Sept 12th, 8 pm, ESPN)

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So if they were trying to split the betting public wouldnt they put a line like +11 or more out there so that OSU fans might want to bet on them. To be honest I believe OSU can win and I'd never bet it at +6. Unless you are saying once USC fans go bozonkers on that line and push it to 10 or more then OSU fans might put in than I agree. Vegas doesn't care about education they care about making money, and wouldn't they do a good job of that if they expected OSU to keep it within fg range. Also When is the last time USC lost by 7 or more. Vegas wants the LA money in there right now.
 
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NateG;1532290; said:
So if they were trying to split the betting public wouldnt they put a line like +11 or more out there so that OSU fans might want to bet on them.
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No, that's what they are trying to avoid, a massive amount of bettors on one side or the other. OSU's fan base is huge, it has to be handled carefully or you'll get 70%-80% of the action on OSU.

To be honest I believe OSU can win and I'd never bet it at +6.
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Not sure what you are saying here. If you think OSU will win outright why wouldn't you take the points? If you are saying you wouldn't put money on OSU at just +6 I agree.

Unless you are saying once USC fans go bozonkers on that line and push it to 10 or more then OSU fans might put in than I agree.
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OSU has the larger fan base by a country mile, so my guess is that they started low to see what's what. I'm with you that I think that line is too low and will be moving up. Sharp action is something else to consider that isn't readily available to the public but has a huge impact on line movement.
 
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Jaxbuck;1532299; said:
...Sharp action is something else to consider that isn't readily available to the public but has a huge impact on line movement.
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Is "sharp action" the reason that some lines look too good to be true?


And is this why they move the line after you place your weekly call? Not that I'm accusing you of anything illegal obviously. I know you'd never do anything like that.
 
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DaddyBigBucks;1532304; said:
Is "sharp action" the reason that some lines look too good to be true?


And is this why they move the line after you place your weekly call? Not that I'm accusing you of anything illegal obviously. I know you'd never do anything like that.
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It can be but "sharp action" is usually in before the average "square" knows the lines are out. Line movement is an inexact science to say the least.

Always watch for the "reverse line moves" if you can. That's where you will see more than 60% of the public action is on a team but the line continues to go opposite of them. Somebody knows something.

As an example lest say the line is OSU +11 and the public just hammers the shit out of it, more than 60% of the ATS action is on it. Normally you'd expect the line to come down to even some of the action out but in our example it keeps going up. That means they don't care that all the action is on OSU, read into that what you may. In this case it would mean someone expects USC to cover no matter if its +11, +12 or whatever the final number is.

Its a fairly well known tool amongst sports bettors or so I'm told (to the tune of >53% winner if they are to be believed). :wink2:
 
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Am i just bass ackwards or what? OSU + 6 means USC favored and give 6 points or that OSU is favored and give 6, because I would maybe bet on this game only if USC was supposed to win. And at that where OSU had some leeway. I was sure I understood the line at first but please excuse my ignorance and reindulge me on the OSU + 6.
 
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NateG;1532317; said:
Am i just bass ackwards or what? OSU + 6 means USC favored and give 6 points or that OSU is favored and give 6, because I would maybe bet on this game only if USC was supposed to win. And at that where OSU had some leeway. I was sure I understood the line at first but please excuse my ignorance and reindulge me on the OSU + 6.
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OSU is spotted 6 points.
At least in Vegas terms.
Thats were the plus comes from.
Say osu loses 24-20. Add 6 and osu wins with the spread.
 
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EDDIE GGGG27;1532269; said:
they were cheating pretty much everyone in the box to stop Navy's option

when you do that its pretty much asking to get burnt

and I doubt we see the defense playing like that against USC
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I think we might see something similar to stop U$C's run. I make Brockley
beat me.
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I think after saturday you might REALLY dislike "Brockley"!:biggrin:
 
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That's what I thought... isn't that just a rediculous line with the way everyone is talking unless you know something that other people don't. Even if you don't follow OSU or if you do you aren't going to put your money on OSU unless you are just so homerized that you can't see straight. If you watch or listen to any sports show or channel OSU is to lose by a td or more...alot more. I just don't see logic in it except thinking that you will get alot of money on USC and that OSU will put it out. It tells me the guys that run the lines for Vegas (whom are normally spot on) are saying that its almost a toss up game. One play here or one drive there or that they think TP will just keep it close enough. Either way...lol... I'm not betting on it and I feel better. So even if no one else is with me that's fine.
 
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