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Scenarios for Final 2022 CFP Rankings

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BB73 said:
Updated after this week.

#01. UGA undefeated thru CCG
#02. tOSU undefeated thru CCG
#03. TTUN undefeated thru CCG (mutually exclusive with #02)
#04. TCU undefeated thru CCG
#05. UGA with 1 loss, even if it’s to LSU in CCG
#06. USC wins over ND and in CCG
#07. LSU wins out with CCG over UGA
#08. tOSU with 1 loss, in CCG
#09. TTUN with 1 loss, in CCG
#10. tOSU with an unthinkable loss
#11. TTUN with a loss in The Game
#12. Clemson wins out with CCG over UNC
#13. Tennessee with 2 losses, no CCG
#14. Bama beats Auburn, has 2 losses, no CCG
#15. TCU with a loss

So UGA is in unless they lose twice.
The winner of The Game is in unless they lose the CCG, AND TCU, USC and LSU all win their CCGs (close with LSU).
TCU is in if they win out, and can’t afford a loss.
USC is also in if they win out, and can’t afford a loss.
LSU must win out AND have either TCU and USC get a loss.
Clemson must win out AND have TCU, USC, and LSU all lose.
Tennessee and Bama need total chaos to have any chance.
Click to expand...
If LSU wins they'll get in over USC. There's no way they're not taking two SEC teams.

That said if TCU, LSU and USC all lose who gets in do you all think?

I'd have to think it'll go UGA, OSU, ttun and ?

Would they really put Alabama at 4 over a 1 loss TCU?
 
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Captain Buckeye said:
If LSU wins they'll get in over USC. There's no way they're not taking two SEC teams.

That said if TCU, LSU and USC all lose who gets in do you all think?

I'd have to think it'll go UGA, OSU, ttun and ?

Would they really put Alabama at 4 over a 1 loss TCU?
Click to expand...
Clemson, if they win out, gets in over Bama if TCU, LSU, and USC all lose.
 
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Captain Buckeye said:
If LSU wins they'll get in over USC. There's no way they're not taking two SEC teams.

That said if TCU, LSU and USC all lose who gets in do you all think?

I'd have to think it'll go UGA, OSU, ttun and ?

Would they really put Alabama at 4 over a 1 loss TCU?
Click to expand...

I was just going to post that hilariously Alabama is not done yet.

TCU loses, USC loses, Clemson loses, UGA wins the SEC title game.

You've got

Georgia
B1G Champ
Ohio State scUM loser
????

Bama gets in over a 2 loss Pac 12 champ IMO and they certainly get in over a 1 loss non champ TCU.

Fortunately I think at least 1 of the teams above manages not to lose.
 
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buckeyemania11 said:
I was just going to post that hilariously Alabama is not done yet.

TCU loses, USC loses, Clemson loses, UGA wins the SEC title game.

You've got

Georgia
B1G Champ
Ohio State scUM loser
????

Bama gets in over a 2 loss Pac 12 champ IMO and they certainly get in over a 1 loss non champ TCU.

Fortunately I think at least 1 of the teams above manages not to lose.
Click to expand...

I think TCU is going to make it through and just to be safe, both fanbases involved in The Game should be hoping USC gets beat again (and Clemson too for the DFBIA).
 
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Jaxbuck said:
I think TCU is going to make it through and just to be safe, both fanbases involved in The Game should be hoping USC gets beat again (and Clemson too for the DFBIA).
Click to expand...

TCU has been living on the edge a lot. I think it catches up to them finally in the Big 12 title game.

Clemson probably bonks South Carolina & UNC. Them back dooring into the playoff would be so annoying.
 
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buckeyemania11 said:
TCU has been living on the edge a lot. I think it catches up to them finally in the Big 12 title game.

Clemson probably bonks South Carolina & UNC. Them back dooring into the playoff would be so annoying.
Click to expand...

I'd love to see them take another proper rogering on the big stage. Especially if it's OSU laying the wood.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
I'd love to see them take another proper rogering on the big stage. Especially if it's OSU laying the wood.
Click to expand...

The shitty thing is in the scenario where Georgia wins the SEC, USC loses & TCU loses we would probably get stuck playing a rematch with scUM in the semi final. While UGA gets the layup vs Clemson.

The SEC can never ever have a rematch in the semi finals, but theyd sure make the B1G do it.
 
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Here is a breakdown of the Power-5 teams contending for a CFP payoff spot, and who has gotten in since this started in 2014.

0 losses AND Conference Champ - 10 of 10 teams selected
1 loss AND a Conference Champ - 16 of 19 teams selected (not Baylor and TCU 2014, tOSU 2018)
1 loss and No Conference Champ - 3 of 9 teams selected (tOSU 2016, Bama 2017, UGA 2021)
2+ losses AND Conference Champ - 0 of 12 teams selected (B1G 2, ACC 1, Big XII 3, PAC-12 6)

Plus, Notre Dame has been selected twice, but never when a P5 Conference Champion had a record the same or better than ND’s. And undefeated Cincy was selected last year, but only over 2+ loss P5 Champs. That totals to 32 picks.

Now, the SEC hasn’t yet had a 2-loss team win their CCG, so the above 0 for 12 hasn’t been fully vetted yet regarding the SEC.
 
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I expect the UGA/LSU game will go about the same way as the UGA/Tennessee game did. UGA will probably clearly be in control of the whole game but will just go into cruise control once they build some kind of decent lead. Final score might be like 28-13 but the game will be nowhere as close as the score.
 
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Here’s an update to the table in the first post.

I made the resumes of each team based on the following criteria: A good win is against an FBS team with no more than 3 losses, a close win is any game within 8 points, overtime games are indicated, and large margins of victory are listed if the opponent is a ‘good’ team as previously defined.

The only current 2-loss teams included are LSU/Bama/Tennessee. The only current 1-loss team excluded is Coastal Carolina.

TeamRemaining gamesGood WinsLossesOther Close wins
GeorgiaGa Tech, LSUOregon(+46), Tenn - Mizzou
tOSUTTUN, CCGND, @Penn St - -
TTUN@ tOSU, no CCGPenn St, Illini(2) - Maryland
TCUIa St, CCGOkla St(OT), Kans St - @SMU, Kans, @Tex, @Baylor
USCND, CCG@OgSt(+3), @UCLA(+3)@Utah(-1)Arizona, Cal
LSU@aTm, UGAMiss(+25), Bama(OT)FSU(-1), Tenn(-27)@Aub, @Ark
ClemsonS. Car., @UNC@Fla St(+6)@ND(-21)@Wake(OT), Syr(+6)
AlabamaAuburnOle Miss(+6)@Tenn(-3), @LSU(OT)@Tex(+1), aTm(+4)
Tennessee@Vandy@LSU(+27), Bama@Georgia(-14), @USCe(-25)@Pitt(OT), Fla
One interesting note is that every team except Bama and Clemson have 2 ‘good’ wins.
 
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buckeyemania11 said:
I was just going to post that hilariously Alabama is not done yet.

TCU loses, USC loses, Clemson loses, UGA wins the SEC title game.

You've got

Georgia
B1G Champ
Ohio State scUM loser
????

Bama gets in over a 2 loss Pac 12 champ IMO and they certainly get in over a 1 loss non champ TCU.

Fortunately I think at least 1 of the teams above manages not to lose.
Click to expand...
Better chance of Iowa winning the big ten than Clemson dropping another game.
 
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giphy.gif


What the fuck are we talking about here? It's Hate Week and we're talking about playoffs? Playoffs?

There are only two scenarios that matter...Fuck and *ichigan.
 
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