Reds tidbits (2010 season)

[Dryden]

Harang is a real concern and its not just from ST numbers. The past 2 years he appears to be getting heavier and heavier and his mechanics have gone to shit.

FIFY

 

[reagdog]

How's Leake doing so far? Saw he threw 4 IP 3 hits and 1ER today.

 

[reagdog]

Just came across this:

Cincinnati Reds' Mike Leake making strong case for jump to the big leagues

 

[Jaxbuck]

How's Leake doing so far? Saw he threw 4 IP 3 hits and 1ER today.

We have a high class problem with Leake, Wood and Chapman all good candidates for the 5th spot.

From what I have seen, read, heard Leake is as advertised. Great makeup, good control, good movement. All 3 are MLB ready or just a shade away but the Reds would be stupid to break camp with anyone of them on the 25 man roster. Just skip a couple of 5th starts and you buy a whole extra year of arb eligibility for Wood and Leake. Chapman has some provision in his contract that benefits the Reds to the tune of an extra year if he stays down a few days in April as well.

The good news for Reds fan's is that with Cueto and Bailey getting better, Volquez on the mend and Wood/Leake/Chapman emerging, the replacements for Harang and Arroyo are in place and ready right as their contracts are running out. Our starting rotation will be young, talented and cheap as it can be for the next few years.

 

[Dryden]

Our starting rotation will be young, talented and cheap as it can be for the next few years.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Well there are 6 of them :(

I'm writing a screen play for it. We have an army of young talented arms getting ready to meet Dusty so its kind of a cross between Bull Durham and Saving Private Ryan.

 

[jlb1705]

We're starting to see moves of consequence now:

CincinnatiReds
Optioned to Louisville Burton, Chapman, Maloney, Wood, Sutton; reassigned Lehr, Castillo, Burke; released Wells.

It's encouraging to see Wells get the boot. I'm used to guys like him making the club and getting the ball before the first series was concluded.

I remember Burton looking somewhat promising a couple years ago. Dusty probably used him up, but part of me is hopeful he can recapture some of that promise.

 

[Honor&Glory]

We're starting to see moves of consequence now:



It's encouraging to see Wells get the boot. I'm used to guys like him making the club and getting the ball before the first series was concluded.

I remember Burton looking somewhat promising a couple years ago. Dusty probably used him up, but part of me is hopeful he can recapture some of that promise.

Agree about Burton.

 

[Honor&Glory]

THIS is why the Reds stand no chance.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Leake has been named the 5th starter.

Part of me is excited about that but overall I question the decision. He hasn't pitched in the minors save for some AFL time and he's a finesse pitcher. Whats he going to do when good MLB hitters just sit there and foul off pitch after pitch that used to get college/AFL/spring training players out?

I'd rather use a more experienced, if slightly less capable, guy for a while to get Leake some seasoning, avoid crushing his confidence and delay his arb clock.

All that said, its the Reds and they aren't going to go a full spring without making some head scratching decisions.

 

[scott91575]

Leake has been named the 5th starter.

Part of me is excited about that but overall I question the decision. He hasn't pitched in the minors save for some AFL time and he's a finesse pitcher. Whats he going to do when good MLB hitters just sit there and foul off pitch after pitch that used to get college/AFL/spring training players out?

I'd rather use a more experienced, if slightly less capable, guy for a while to get Leake some seasoning, avoid crushing his confidence and delay his arb clock.

All that said, its the Reds and they aren't going to go a full spring without making some head scratching decisions.

I am fine with it. He is not some 19 year old fireball thrower that needs to develop his control and other pitches. He played at a major D1 school at a high level, and is a very complete pitcher already. That helps with confidence too.

The only concern I have is if he pitches well Dusty will ride his arm. Hopefully when Volquez returns they can spot start Leake, or even shut him down completely. Alright, who am I kidding?

As for arbitration, screw that. If he is ready, he is ready. I hate that reasoning, especially with a team that actually has some upsides.

 

[Jaxbuck]

As for arbitration, screw that. If he is ready, he is ready. I hate that reasoning, especially with a team that actually has some upsides.

If a couple of meaningless #5 starts in April of 2010 cost us an extra year of a big time pitcher in 2014 remember you said that.

Look at the spot the Giants are in with Lincecum right now over this exact situation. There is virtually no upside and massive downside if he turns out to be a good pitcher.

Low reward/high risk decisions are bad in baseball or any business.

 

[scott91575]

If a couple of meaningless #5 starts in April of 2010 cost us an extra year of a big time pitcher in 2014 remember you said that.

Look at the spot the Giants are in with Lincecum right now over this exact situation. There is virtually no upside and massive downside if he turns out to be a good pitcher.

Low reward/high risk decisions are bad in baseball or any business.

and what if the Reds completely suck in 2014 and end up a game or two out of the playoffs this year? This current team is the best one in a decade. No time to hold anything back in a small market. Need to put the best out there in the short lifespan of a small market team. Plus, who is your other #5 starter? Someone from the garbage heap, or Wood? The garbage heap would cause a few more losses (plus the Reds can't afford throw away contracts), and Wood has the same arbitration issue.

Continually holding players back year after year for fear of arbitration is the perfect way to stay mediocre at best. I understand that rational if the Reds were coming off a year like the Nationals or another bottom feeder. Yet the team was 6 games under .500, lots of young players with upsides combined with some productive yet aging vets (who will be long gone by 2014), and in a league that is not that strong.

BTW...last time I checked games in April count the same as the end of the year. Plus it's not just April, it's May also in order to avoid super 2 status. You can also demote him later when Volquez returns, and shut him down. Leake has all his options, so no big deal. Why waste his limited innings in the minors? Send him down later to save on service time. Teams do this all the time. There is more than one way to avoid arbitration/free agency other than sitting them at the start of the year. Some teams avoid this out of fear they will tick off fans if that player is really good, but with a pitcher you can state he is too young for lots of innings. I don't know why more teams don't use that approach when it comes to pitchers.

 

[Jaxbuck]

and what if the Reds completely suck in 2014 and end up a game or two out of the playoffs this year? This current team is the best one in a decade. No time to hold anything back in a small market. Need to put the best out there in the short lifespan of a small market team. Plus, who is your other #5 starter? Someone from the garbage heap, or Wood? The garbage heap would cause a few more losses (plus the Reds can't afford throw away contracts), and Wood has the same arbitration issue.

I guess I can see this line of reasoning if you think the Reds are legit contenders this year (which I don't) and you think Leake is good enough to just step right into the majors fresh out of college and be an instant winner (again I am highly doubtful). Name the last pitcher you can remember that skipped the minors and had a good career.

As far as the small market thing goes, that's more reason to be fiscally conservative, not more reckless. That year of extra expense looming could very well mean the difference in keeping a good player or not for a team like the Reds.

Continually holding players back year after year for fear of arbitration is the perfect way to stay mediocre at best. I understand that rational if the Reds were coming off a year like the Nationals or another bottom feeder. Yet the team was 6 games under .500, lots of young players with upsides combined with some productive yet aging vets (who will be long gone by 2014), and in a league that is not that strong.

The vets that won't be here in a couple of years are place holders, there are no guarantees but building for the near future with this franchise has a higher percentage chance of success than pinning hopes to 2010. getting every ounce of productivity for the least amount of dollars possible is a recipe for sustained success, not mediocrity.

If you really think the Reds are in that much different position than the Nats or Pirates you've been buying into spring training hype way too much. This team will struggle for .500 this year, not be a legit contender.

BTW...last time I checked games in April count the same as the end of the year. Plus it's not just April, it's May also in order to avoid super 2 status. You can also demote him later when Volquez returns, and shut him down. Leake has all his options, so no big deal. Why waste his limited innings in the minors? Send him down later to save on service time. Teams do this all the time. There is more than one way to avoid arbitration/free agency other than sitting them at the start of the year. Some teams avoid this out of fear they will tick off fans if that player is really good, but with a pitcher you can state he is too young for lots of innings. I don't know why more teams don't use that approach when it comes to pitchers.

See Lincecum, Tim.

More teams don't use that approach because it's just like I said previously, high risk/non existent reward. A couple of starts between now and May from Leake are not worth the price you pay down the road if he turns out to be a stud. Not even close.

This isn't a Willy Tavaras stupid move, but its not smart.

 

[jlb1705]

Sign me up for what Jax is saying. Small market teams do have a short window and you do have to go for it when you have your best chance. But I think you should also seek ways to extend that window whenever possible. Forgoing a few starts in the #5 spot in the rotation for an extra year of control over a young player is the wiser move in my opinion. I think that is especially true with the way games are scheduled in April and May. You can often skip that #5 spot in the early weeks and keep the other guys in the rotation on regular rest.