Reds Tidbits (2009 season)

[crazybuckfan40]

Because they were down 1 run in the 8th. Larger deficit or earlier in the game, I agree.

Right do you like the idea of 3 outs with a runner in scoring position or 2 outs with a runner in scoring position???

Seems like an easy answer to me...

Now if you have guy on first 0 outs, then yeah i bunt, depending on who is at the dish, but the situation that it was I hit away every day of the week...

 

[Jimmy Carter]

Right do you like the idea of 3 outs with a runner in scoring position or 2 outs with a runner in scoring position???...

Uhhh, with a sac bunt you have two runners in scoring position not 1.

 

[Fungo Squiggly]

I'm in agreement that the sac bunt with 1st and 2nd and no outs is the right move, particularly with the top of the order coming up, down by a run in the 8th inning.

What really had me scratching my head is that Dusty never hesitates to sac bunt any other time in the game, so why have Dickerson swing away there?

Of course, it wouldn't have been 1st and 2nd with no outs if he'd called for the bunt with Rosales like I was expecting him to.

 

[scott91575]

Right do you like the idea of 3 outs with a runner in scoring position or 2 outs with a runner in scoring position???

Seems like an easy answer to me...

Now if you have guy on first 0 outs, then yeah i bunt, depending on who is at the dish, but the situation that it was I hit away every day of the week...

How about the fact you can get a guy on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. Eliminates the double play (doh! That is what happened) and allows for a run to score on a ground ball (many, not all) and a fly out. It also allows 2 runs to score on a base hit (a base hit that becomes easier if they bring the infield in).

They could walk the bases loaded to get the double play back (yet adds in the chance for a walk). Yet still, a hit gets 2 runs (hey, a lead in the 8th!) or a sac fly ties the game. Both better than leaving the runners at 1st and 2nd.

If you look at the percentages, the chances of scoring with a runner on 3rd with 1 out vs. 2nd and no outs that chance increases 3%. Not huge, but that is not taking into account the other runner. Moving him over eliminates the double play, and makes the percentages even more of a difference (15% chance of double play). Finally, you have to look at who is batting, the inning, and the score. A pinch hitter, down 1 run in the 8th (making any chance to improve your percentage to score 1 run really big). You bunt.

Small ball is not good for overall run scoring, but late in a game down 1 it can save the game.

 

[jlb1705]

Thats what .500 teams do. Everything was going right and they were slightly above, now some stuff is going to go wrong and they'll likely be sub.500 for a while. My personal definition of a good season was 80+ wins coming in and I still stand by that. They aren't as good as they looked April-May and they aren't as bad as they are going to look here for a while.

.500 is an improvement for this franchise, still not a good team but they don't completely suck anymore and there is at least some logical reason for hope. Compared to where we have been the past decade plus I'll take it.

They already hit it in the last series they played the Cardinals and they still took the series. The pitching was just atrocious in Milwaukee, especially the turd left by Harang. If the top of the rotation bounces back I don't think it'll be a persistent problem through the year, barring getting swept by StL this week and the team just phoning it in from here on out.

Remember 2006, Cincinnati lead the division two weeks before the All-Star break then lost 8 of 9 before the vacation. After that, everyone, including the FO mailed it in when suddenly the top of the division came back to the pack, leaving Cinci scrambling to make up the 2 or 3 games back they were in September with ill-advised deals, when they could have been strengthening the bullpen in August and winning a game here and a game there without being in full-out panic mode. Although, they could have been winning games in August by actully, you know, playing their best players everyday and giving a [censored] too, but the whole mentality of the org changed after that losing streak in July.

That'll be the test this year.

Hell, 80 wins would be an improvement over that 2006 season, even though that incarnation of the Reds was "in contention" for most of the year because the rest of the division was also bad.

Of course I want the Reds to win and be in the race, but realistically the best thing for this franchise might be for them to improve to .500 and not be in the race. It's the kind of season that would bring a little hope, but keep the powers that be from making the kind of franchise-crippling moves (Rheal Cormier anyone?) during the season or in the off-season that could keep them from improving again the next year.

 

[jlb1705]

Also, count me in the pro-bunt crowd. Of course it's not smart in all (or even most) situations. In that one though I'd do it without hesitation. Overall the Reds are going to be challenged to score runs and they are going to go through some particularly rough patches (like the sweeps by the Padres & Brewers). I think in certain situations like this one where it's late and close you have to give this team a chance to score a big run by accident rather than by achievement.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Also, count me in the pro-bunt crowd. Of course it's not smart in all (or even most) situations. In that one though I'd do it without hesitation. Overall the Reds are going to be challenged to score runs and they are going to go through some particularly rough patches (like the sweeps by the Padres & Brewers). I think in certain situations like this one where it's late and close you have to give this team a chance to score a big run by accident rather than by achievement.

90% (or more) of the time I would say its a bad idea to be giving away outs with a non pitcher.

I didn't catch all the details on this one but in general I would disagree with sac bunting a position player to play for 1 run in the 8th on the road. I might agree with doing it at home depending on how weak the stick was that you had bunting.

 

[crazybuckfan40]

So you have Dickerson up...Who is pretty good handling the bat, and has been swinging a decent stick as of late...Down 1 run in the 8th inning...

Yeah I know the Reds struggle to score runs, but you bunt him over they walk the next guy, and you are basically back where you started with the double play, now you have a force at home as well, and you have 1 less out to play with...

You guys are all playing to tie the game...you have a guy at 2nd already...I just don't understand why you give up an out there...then a double play gets them out of the inning...

We had top of the lineup with 1,2,3...You have to figure that one of them could get a hit, and better yet you have to think, that a double, or two hits, and you take the lead...You don't strangle hold your offense when it is already at a strangle hold...I don't remember who was in the 1,2,3 hole that game, but chances are that you feel better about scoring the runner if our 3 hole hitter (Votto, Bruce, Phillips) gets up...

 

[scott91575]

So you have Dickerson up...Who is pretty good handling the bat, and has been swinging a decent stick as of late...Down 1 run in the 8th inning...

Yeah I know the Reds struggle to score runs, but you bunt him over they walk the next guy, and you are basically back where you started with the double play, now you have a force at home as well, and you have 1 less out to play with...

You guys are all playing to tie the game...you have a guy at 2nd already...I just don't understand why you give up an out there...then a double play gets them out of the inning...

We had top of the lineup with 1,2,3...You have to figure that one of them could get a hit, and better yet you have to think, that a double, or two hits, and you take the lead...You don't strangle hold your offense when it is already at a strangle hold...I don't remember who was in the 1,2,3 hole that game, but chances are that you feel better about scoring the runner if our 3 hole hitter (Votto, Bruce, Phillips) gets up...

I am going to go through some actual statistics and show why bunting is a good idea late in the game, down 1, 0 outs.

First of all, the upcoming hitters (next 3) are all pretty average or even less than so. Therefore, I think statistics are pretty good here. I am also assuming a successful sacrifice, yet there are other things like errors, a bunt hit, etc. that sort of offset that. Anyway, here it goes...

The runs scored average for men on 1st and 2nd with 0 outs is 1.402. With men on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out is 1.320 (BTW...bases loaded 1 out is 1.487 so if they load the bases after the sacrifice it's the best of both worlds). With bunting, you give up the chance of .082 runs on average (not much, and mind you much of that is the big inning, not 1 or 2 runs). Here is the key...run probability (1 or more runs vs. zero). 1st and 2nd, no outs - .622. 2nd and 3rd 1 out - .664. Bases loaded 1 out - .668.

So here is your choice - chance of scoring .082 runs more vs. 4.2% increase in the chance of tying up the game. At that point in the game I am willing to give up the small increase in runs for the higher likelihood of tying the game up. I also feel that with the bunt what you are giving up is the 3+ run innings, and hence the difference in average runs. I am willing to bet with a bunt 2+ run innings percentage are also higher than not bunting (I couldn't find a chart on that). Since it is late in the game, tying the game or going up 1 is very important. Certainly a no brainier in the bottom of the 9th, but that is not this scenario.

To sum up, IMO, not bunting gives you a chance to score more runs because you can get a bigger inning. Yet bunting gives you a better chance to tie the game up or take a 1 run lead. Near the end of the game bunting is the better option.

BTW...If they did walk the next batter, then both the amount of runs scored and chance of getting 1 run goes up. So that is not a very good argument, and anyone in baseball would take bases loaded 1 out over 1st and 2nd no out.

This all comes from these stats....

The Baseball Analysts: Empirical Analysis of Bunting

Of course in the end the stats are not that different, and hence the reason for the argument (or the futility of the argument as the case may be).

edit: Finally, the argument can hinge on the inning. I think the cutoff is the bottom of the 7th (or opponent still has 2 innings to bat). Any sooner and I agree don't bunt. It's a really close call.

 

[Thump]

So you have Dickerson up...Who is pretty good handling the bat, and has been swinging a decent stick as of late...Down 1 run in the 8th inning...

Yeah I know the Reds struggle to score runs, but you bunt him over they walk the next guy, and you are basically back where you started with the double play, now you have a force at home as well, and you have 1 less out to play with...

You guys are all playing to tie the game...you have a guy at 2nd already...I just don't understand why you give up an out there...then a double play gets them out of the inning...

We had top of the lineup with 1,2,3...You have to figure that one of them could get a hit, and better yet you have to think, that a double, or two hits, and you take the lead...You don't strangle hold your offense when it is already at a strangle hold...I don't remember who was in the 1,2,3 hole that game, but chances are that you feel better about scoring the runner if our 3 hole hitter (Votto, Bruce, Phillips) gets up...

Have you ever even played baseball?

Not bunting there was inexcusable.

Hell, a 13 year old Babe Ruth coach would know to bunt.

Down 1 in the eighth with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs is a guaranteed bunt situation. Especially with a team that struggles to put runs on the board.

If you recall, Dickerson had not been that hot going into that game. Plus, a left-handed batter who's got speed already has an advantage in a bunting situation.

And why do you figure one of the next 3 guys gets a hit, at best, each guy has a 3/10 chance of getting a hit.

Plus, by advancing the runners, a fly ball or ground ball almost guarantees a run since the only force out is at first.

This is baseball 101 and Baker failed.

 

[scott91575]

and there goes Volquez. Alright, more Homer Bailey to come!

 

[Mike80]

down 1 run, men on 1st and 2nd with 0 outs in the 8th?

play for the tie. bunt the runners to 2nd and 3rd and get a sac fly (or hell, bunt again).....that's the NL style of baseball that is usually employed.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Have you ever even played baseball?

Yes. To the point of making a decision to play professionally or not. I knew I could never be anything more than a career minor leaguer and that was that.

Not bunting there was inexcusable.

No, it was debateable.

Hell, a 13 year old Babe Ruth coach would know to bunt.

Little League coaches saying it doesn't neccessarily make it so. They also want no strikeouts and everyone to choke up with two strikes and slap the ball the other way. You don't see a whole lot of that at the MLB level.

Especially with a team that struggles to put runs on the board.

Giving away outs seems like a strange way to help an offensively challenged team score more runs. He was showing some confidence in his hitters and saying we are going to win or lose right here, 1st and 2nd/no one out/someone go up and get a hit to break it open. If they tie it up odds are they lose anyway with the other team getting the last AB.

And why do you figure one of the next 3 guys gets a hit, at best, each guy has a 3/10 chance of getting a hit.

Thats baseball. At some point in time someone's going to have to get a hit to win games.

This is baseball 101 and Baker failed.

I'm not a fan of Dusty but in this case I don't think he messed up nearly as bad as people are making it out to be.

He played for the big inning on the road down by 1 instead of playing for the 1 run and a tie. That concept is in the first few pages of the baseball 101 handbook as well.

I agree its a good old fashioned baseball debate and it can be argued either way. I don't agree that it was 100% stupidity on the part of The Dusty.

Stupidity is Dave Miley sitting Dunn and JR on the same night in Coors field for Aurillia and Freel. Now that my friends was fucking stupid.

 

[schwab]

We're up 3-2

 

[Mike80]

I don't know Jax, I'd tend to bunt there. Either they pitch to the next batter or intentionally walk him at that point.