Canton Rep
2/7
[FONT=Verdana,Times New Roman,arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Recruiting not exact science[/FONT]
Tuesday, February 7, 2006 [FONT=Verdana,Times New Roman,arial,helvetica,sans-serif]By TODD PORTER[/FONT]
College football recruiting analysts can go on vacation.
Their dutiful work is done.
Actually, it’s not bad work if you can get it. Recruiting Web sites have shared opinions and rankings on how college football’s big brothers did during recruiting season. They’ve assigned stars, numbers, grades and point values to each recruit. They’ve ranked teams. They pored over hours of videotape, studied players, looked at stats and talked more about 18-year-old boys than most should.
And now? It doesn’t matter.
More than half will be wrong. Recruiting an 18-year-old high school player is a great deal more difficult than drafting a 22-year-old college player in the NFL. College players will change more in four years of college than they will in the NFL.
Look at A.J. Hawk. Some thought he’d be a fullback at Ohio State.
Look at Ohio State’s 2002 recruiting class. Hawk, according to Scout.com, was a three-star player, far short of Mike D’Andrea’s five stars. In fact, D’Andrea was the nation’s No. 1 linebacker coming out of Avon Lake High School.
Hawk?
He turned out to be the best player in that class and will be a top 10 pick in April’s NFL Draft. Rob Sims, who will be drafted, was an afterthought in the 2002 class. T.J. Downing, destined to be a three-year starter next season, was a two-star candidate and the 121st offensive lineman in the nation.
And the guy they missed by a long shot? Nick Mangold.
He wasn’t even ranked nationally and received one measly star. Mangold was a four-year starter and has asserted himself, at least early, as the most likely center to be drafted first.
“Recruiting is such an inexact science,” Ohio State Head Coach Jim Tressel said. “We put so much time into it, just like they do for the NFL Draft. I remember a former staff member here, when we said we were going to offer A.J. Hawk a scholarship, he said we were giving a scholarship to a Division I-AA fullback.
“Now A.J. will be able to buy a few things here in a few days.”
There isn’t a sure way to judge any player. There is, however, an “it” factor. It’s something recruiting analysts don’t always see. It’s something coaches miss. “It” is the reason why Indiana, Purdue or Northwestern once in a while land a recruit no one else wanted, and he turns into a star.
“Recruiting is the constant accumulation of data, then you try to get to know the kids as best you can,” Tressel said. “It’s harder now than 20 years ago because of the number of contacts you’re allowed, but you have to try to figure out if they can fit into our system. There are no magic formulas, but we keep working at it.”
Outside of the big three in the Big Ten — Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State — there are not enough known quantities in the other classes to say for sure these players will make a difference in four years. Is anyone about to say Indiana will turn things around?
Of course not.
“I don’t care about rankings or the number of stars players receive from the Internet recruiting sites,” Purdue Coach Joe Tiller said. “We tried to zero in on guys who are good fits ... Purdue is basically a developmental program, and we look for guys who can develop and turn into players.
“The problem is that we might only hit on 50 percent. We might think a certain guy may develop into a certain type of a player, and 50 percent of the time it works, and 50 percent of the time it doesn't. If it doesn't work, then we look at junior college players.”
The Boilermakers signed seven junior college players this season, a lot of JUCO transfers in one year.
There could be two reasons.
Tiller admitted the first.
He needs immediate help in several positions.
But maybe time is running out on Tiller. JUCO players, particularly more than two or three a year, usually means someone better start winning soon. Tiller referred to Purdue as a developmental program. Seven JUCO players in one season doesn’t suggest developing anything but a quick fix.
JUST SO YOU KNOW
Troy Smith and Justin Zwick were both rated four stars, Zwick the 14th-best quarterback prospect and Smith the 15th. Now they’re reversed on the depth chart.
AND ONE MORE THING
In case anyone was wondering who the other five-star recruits in that 2002 class were ... Mike Kudla, who came out of Medina Highland High School, was riding a wave of hype. But, in hindsight, the most overrated five-star player was running back Maurice Clarett. Those rankings don’t take into account a player’s mental makeup.
THIS YEAR’S CLASS
For what it’s worth, most services had Ohio State ranked in the top 15 classes in the country. That’s not bad for signing 20 players, and getting among those 20: the top-ranked high school running back (Chris Wells), the best junior college linebacker (Larry Grant), the top high school fullback (Aram Olson, who goes 6-foot-2, 240 pounds) and the top high school defensive end (Robert Rose). The Buckeyes landed seven of the country’s top 100 recruits as ranked by Scout.com. That’s as many as USC’s highly-touted class.