• New here? Register here now for access to all the forums, download game torrents, private messages, polls, Sportsbook, etc. Plus, stay connected and follow BP on Instagram @buckeyeplanet and Facebook.

RB07OSU's BIG Breakdown

Jump to latest Follow Reply
plum diamonds buckeye planet
Sort by date Sort by votes
OSUK said:
I do think the chances that the MSU-OSU winner loses another game are pretty good, just statistically and historically. If they are both setting there with one loss, then The Game will be what it has historically been.
Click to expand...

I disagree. If OSU wins at MSU, I don't see them entering The Game with one loss in conference, as that would mean they'd have to drop one of the following:

at Maryland
vs Rutgers
at PSU
vs Illinois
at Minnesota
vs Indiana
 
Upvote 0
I guess I've just watched too many Ohio State games. I remember inexplicable losses to some teams that should not have been on the same field with the Buckeyes. Glen Mason's Gophers won in Ohio Stadium once by throwing 6 yard slants over, and over, and over. Couldn't stop it. We all remember Sparty ruining that perfect season. Their QB was throwing jump balls at times - and completing them. Purdue has played like world-beaters on occasion. I've seen mediocre Iowa teams take it to the Bucks, and Illinois as well. That 07 Illinois game particularly sticks out. I would point out more examples, but my dementia is prohibitive.

I looked at last year's CFB/B1G Athelon mag the other day. They projected Sparty to be 7-5 and go to the Gator Bowl or something like that. I bet one of those teams that we don't think is going to be any good is going to surprise us.

Ohio State has traditionally had a notable talent advantage when they stepped on the field against B1G opponents not named scUM, but as they say, "those other guys are on scholarship too." You take a team that has some talent, they get things going their way, the Buckeyes get frustrated, maybe an injury takes out a key guy, Ohio State turns the ball over, and there you go. It's so hard to run through a season without having that one bad Saturday where you lose to someone you shouldn't.

That said, I see what you mean with that list. The Rutgers, Maryland, Illinois, and Indiana games should be "unloseable" (if that's a word) - even if they aren't on their game. They shouldn't lose any of them, but given the scenario in the paragraph ^, at PSU and at Minny will make me uncomfortable if they are competive into the 2nd half.

I'm one of these guys who doesn't relax until and unless the Buckeyes are up 35 with 5 min to go in the 4th. :biggrin:
 
Last edited:
Upvote 0
OSUK said:
I remember inexplicable losses to some teams that should not have been on the same field with the Buckeyes...It's so hard to run through a season without having that one bad Saturday where you lose to someone you shouldn't...
Click to expand...
I agree, and would go a step further and say that the occasional loss to an inferior team isn't inexplicable, but is to be expected. Consider the 6 game stretch under discussion here. If, to simplify, you consider OSU a 9:1 favorite in each of those games, that leads to just barely over a 50% chance they'll win all of them. In any reasonably long stretch of games, you have to be an overwhelming favorite in all of them to have a good chance of going undefeated. Which is why it doesn't happen all that often, even for a team like OSU that is clearly more talented than their opponent most of the time.
 
Upvote 0
I'm not smart enough to sit down and do a mathematical analysis on the odds. That's impressive.

But I will hold on to the idea that Purdue beating Ohio State when the Buckeyes had TP at QB, and a plethora of talent around him, is the definition, at least in football terms, of "inexplicable". :confused:
 
Upvote 0
It does, but I see it happening less with Urban's teams. We might drop one but I don't think it will be because of lackadaisical play. Four to six, A to B or you find yourself on the bench the next week.
 
Upvote 0
OSUK said:
I'm not smart enough to sit down and do a mathematical analysis on the odds. That's impressive.

But I will hold on to the idea that Purdue beating Ohio State when the Buckeyes had TP at QB, and a plethora of talent around him, is the definition, at least in football terms, of "inexplicable". :confused:
Click to expand...

If odds are a:b the probability of the event is a/(a+b), or .9 in this case. The probability then, of six consecutive wins (independent events), with each win having .9 probability is .9^6=.531.

Themoreyouknow.jpg
 
Upvote 0
I still think that the winner of Ohio State-Michigan State will have to pumpkin-up big time in order for the Ohio State-Michigan game to have any meaning in the standings for the East. Let's say 50/50 chance that Ohio State beats Michigan State, and 50/50 chance for each to win all other games. (Let's also just say with 100% certainty that if either team loses another game, it is only that one game.) So excluding Ohio State vs. Michigan and Ohio State vs. Michigan State, Michigan State has a 50% chance to be 7-0 and a 50% chance of being 6-1, and Ohio State has a 50% chance to go 6-0 and a 50% chance to go 5-1. Add in the 50/50 game for Ohio State vs. Michigan State, and Michigan State has the following chances for each record:
25% chance to go 8-0
25% chance to go 7-1, losing to Ohio State
25% chance to go 7-1, beating Ohio State
25% chance to go 6-2, losing to Ohio State

Along the same lines, Ohio State has the following chances for each record (again, keeping The Game out):
25% chance to go 7-0
25% chance to go 6-1, losing to Michigan State
25% chance to go 6-1, beating Michigan State
25% chance to go 5-2, losing to Michigan State

So if Ohio State loses to Michigan State, Michigan State has a 50% chance to be 8-0, and a 50% chance to be 7-1, with the tie-breaker over Ohio State. Ohio State of course has the one loss, at the least. Michigan State is in.
If Ohio State beats Michigan State, Ohio State has a 50% chance to be 7-0, and a 50% chance to be 6-1, with the tie-breaker over Michigan State. Michigan State has the one loss, at least. The only way Ohio State can lose the lead for the division is if Ohio State was 6-1 going into The Game, and they lose that game, AND Michigan State only lost to Ohio State.

"Inexplicable" losses are to be expected. But remember that those same "inexplicable" losses can happen to Michigan State, too. And the winner of Ohio State-Michigan State needs to have TWO inexplicable losses in order to not win the division.
....Or.... figure out a way to have a 3-way tie, and I believe that the team with the best BCS ranking (or whatever ranking they're going to use this year for the playoffs) gets into the championship game. So who is going to tie with Ohio State and Michigan State? Michigan? Penn State? Rutgers?
 
Upvote 0
Zurp said:
I still think that the winner of Ohio State-Michigan State will have to pumpkin-up big time in order for the Ohio State-Michigan game to have any meaning in the standings for the East....So who is going to tie with Ohio State and Michigan State? Michigan? Penn State? Rutgers?
Click to expand...
I definitely wouldn't bet on it, but I don't think it's completely implausible to imagine a scenario where Michigan goes into The Game with a 6-1 conference record.
 
Upvote 0
zincfinger said:
I definitely wouldn't bet on it, but I don't think it's completely implausible to imagine a scenario where Michigan goes into The Game with a 6-1 conference record.
Click to expand...

I could see that. They lose to Michigan State, and Ohio State beats Michigan State, Ohio State needs to beat Michigan in order to win the division. If Ohio State loses, there's still a chance they could win the division, but it's leaving it in the hands of the voters. Could we see another 1973? (Yeah - I know - different voters involved.)

I was thinking more along the lines of "winner of The Game (regardless of who it is) goes to the BTCG, loser doesn't" things, but I guess your loophole is valid.
 
Upvote 0
I recollect when Illinois beat tOSU 3 out of 4 years, with only two or three players that would have started for tOSU. Maybe Indiana/Northwestern/Iowa hasn't had that kinda successes, but guarantee that when they played tOSU, they 'destroyed' the spread (making it much closer than the touts said it would be). Meatchicken has beaten tOSU many more times as the underdog than the times when tOSU has returned the 'dog favor. We all know (and agree) about the 'One Game Season' so that's explainable. But the other games? I think I'd get kinda tired of Kerry Coombs in my face about 'getting tough' and 'going all out' week after week when we're playing 1-6, 2-7 teams. that stuff gets old. Only knock against Tress (this is me, not everyone else), was that his and his assistants were not able to get their players up for some of the lesser games. The big ones, if you needed encouragement, then big time football is not for you. Timing of the rants, senior leadership, who knows what else, goes into the 'edge' that some teams have when they play. As tOSU, we KNOW we're gonna take the other team's best shot.......and heck, tOSU players don't want to get embarrassed on the field by Podunk U.

Or maybe I should point to Meeeechigan vs. Appalachian State. There wasn't a person the AP St team that would have made UM's team, or probably been admitted to their university. Yet, on 'that given Saturday' they rose up to smite Goliath in their very own home. (The 'Big' House). Who woulda thunk it. Now the Wolverweenies are going to have to live with that loss forever. Let's hope Urb pulls the #1's, puts in all the #2's if he sees poor, uninspired play in any game by the Buckeyes. The 2's want to be 1's, so put in the ones with fire in their eyes! Go Bucks.
 
Upvote 0
Buckeyeskickbuttocks said:
You have? When. Here's a list to help you: http://football.stassen.com/cgi-bin/records/opp-opp.pl?start=1869&end=2013&team1=Ohio State&team2=Iowa
Click to expand...

That 1923 game really pissed me off - for one example. :biggrin:

Iowa took it to us in the first half last year, and when Vandenberg was a frosh, they came into Ohio Stadium and took the Bucks to OT. I guess my point is that Iowa has rarely entered a game with Ohio State with the better team from a talent perspective, and yet have scared the bejeebers out of me.

But yeah, in recent history it appears that when the Buckeyes have lost to Iowa, the Hawkeyes have been a quality team. Thanks for sharing that with me.
 
Upvote 0
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top