Preseason and Regular Season Polls (2016)

[Jaxbuck]

Let's call it here, Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, Florida State, Oklahoma, Texas, LSU, Michigan, Penn State, USC (when not on probation) and Notre Dame have such an advantage in terms of resources and history that they only play two conference games a year where the odds are relatively even. If they play an OOC game against one of the very top tier teams, that makes it three games a year with even odds.

There are a few teams in each conference who can beat the best team in their conference, especially if at home; Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State, Ol' Miss, Arkansas, maybe Florida, Tennessee, Washington, Oregon.

Every season seems to produce a Houston, Louisville, Baylor, Boise State, TCU, BYU... usually because a top tier team is on probation - Penn State, USC, or has a coaching problem - Michigan, Texas, USC, Notre Dame -

So maybe there are at most 25 teams to worry about each week. Injury bug, internal personnel problems, distractions, bad weather, can produce an upset, but the same teams will consistently rise to the top ten spots and we know that before the first play of any season. So do the guys who put together the polls.

Using my list, counting finishes in the top 15 from 1995 - 2015, Ohio State 15, LSU 14, FSU 13, Oklahoma 12, Michigan 11, Alabama 11, Texas 10, Penn State 9, Notre Dame 8,

I didn't realize that Georgia and Florida had been so successful in that 20 year span. A I was totaling up I realized they probably would ended up ahead of Texas, possibly Alabama and Michigan.

Not sure what the overall point is but I'd argue you have to add Miami to the first bucket (when not on probation or recovering from a crippling probation) and put UGA down in that second tier bucket (no offense to our UGA friend).

If this is trying to point out that only a certain number of teams can win a NC every year then I think that is more of a pre playoff format argument than is relevant today.

Today (as far as any of us know because they don't HAVE to do this) any P5 team that is conference champ with 1 loss or less will be in the playoffs (basically).

You do bring up a good point though in terms of the lower tier programs; what happens when we eventually get a big upset in a CCG and the playoff committee is faced with a 2-3 loss Iowa kind of team as a conference champ and a media darling and highly rated OSU/tsun/Bama kind of team with only that 1 loss?

 

[cincibuck]

You do bring up a good point though in terms of the lower tier programs; what happens when we eventually get a big upset in a CCG and the playoff committee is faced with a 2-3 loss Iowa kind of team as a conference champ and a media darling and highly rated OSU/tsun/Bama kind of team with only that 1 loss?

Probably what happened in 2014 when 1 loss Ohio State jumped Baylor and TCU... You go with the program that puts butts in seats and in front of TVs or the year (2004?) the Big 12 punished Kansas State for having the nerve to be the best team in the conference. And don't think people at the top didn't notice how poorly Oregon traveled to the NC game.

You bring up the specter of the CCG's. The SEC and Big Ten have been lucky so far - but it's bound to happen and there are going to be some pitch-forks-and-torches reactions when it does. I don't mind CCGs so much in football, but the tourney at the end of basketball season is a real mistake.

 

[kujirakira]

Week 3 rankings are a completely different beast than in week 6-end of season. We have no conference games, most teams are playing cupcakes minus a few (i.e. OU, Bama, FSU, OSU). If you are going to say that Ohio State should be ranked 2nd because of who they beat so far then you also have to afford that same notion to Oklahoma for who they lost to. Same can be said for Ole Miss. They were a Top 25 team that gave FSU fits and had Bama on the ropes. They aren't a scrub team, and they were beaten by 2 top 5/top 15 teams. You're kidding yourself if you don't think an OOC game where Ohio state goes into Oxford at night and beats Ole Miss wouldn't be something we would be extremely proud to have seen happen. Hell we were pumped to have crushed the reigning MAC champs.



So you would rather us reward teams with a Top 25 appearance because they scheduled 2 Sun Belt/MAC opponents and a FCS team? We talk all the time about SOS and "who gave you played". We want the best teams in the playoffs, the best tested. However you want to get rid of teams from the top 25 that have had the balls to schedule multiple Top 10 OOC opponents? Makes zero sense. You can't have it both ways.

BN27 has pretty much already nailed the absurdity of basing things off week1 rankings.
We were? Working 12s at night, I didn't even wake up for that game.

We're always happy with a win. We're always happy with an OOC win over a P5 opponent. Ole Miss doesn't really compare to an OU - esp recent results in question. More on the same level as playing against Boston College in a couple years. Probably not even that if NCAA ever decides to actually finish an investigation... upon which Ole Miss' recent success could very likely be vacated and go back to being the doormat they are.
Even in the current situation, Ole Miss wouldn't give us playoff credibility like OU did. Despite having a better record than OU for now. They give Bama credit b/c Bama has expended their free yearly loss on Ole Miss several times in the recent past. And because SEC (as we all know, doesn't count when it's B1G vs SEC though.)

 

[kujirakira]

Not sure what the overall point is but I'd argue you have to add Miami to the first bucket (when not on probation or recovering from a crippling probation) and put UGA down in that second tier bucket (no offense to our UGA friend).

If this is trying to point out that only a certain number of teams can win a NC every year then I think that is more of a pre playoff format argument than is relevant today.

Today (as far as any of us know because they don't HAVE to do this) any P5 team that is conference champ with 1 loss or less will be in the playoffs (basically).

You do bring up a good point though in terms of the lower tier programs; what happens when we eventually get a big upset in a CCG and the playoff committee is faced with a 2-3 loss Iowa kind of team as a conference champ and a media darling and highly rated OSU/tsun/Bama kind of team with only that 1 loss?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_BCS_National_Championship_Game

 

[Jaxbuck]

Looking at it in writing makes it even more interesting;

• All 4 major P5 conferences are heavy in one division this year.
• The B1g east, The SEC west, The Pac 12 North and the ACC division that has Clemson, Louisville and FSU in it.
• The other side is made up of a bunch of low marquee names that could all be a 1-2 loss division champ.
• examples include; Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Utah ,Arizona State and Georgia Tech
• this doesn't increase the odds this year but the past 2 years have seen an inordinate lack of upsets in the last few weeks of each year. The old gamblers fallacy of being due just doesn't allow me to ignore it.

So say all hell breaks loose a la 2007 and you get a something like this

ACC champ: 10-2 Ga tech
SEC Champ: Bama
B1G Champ: 11-1 Iowa who has a loss to an FCS team
Pac 12 Champ: 11-1 Stanford

At large pool: 11-1 Clemson, 11-1 Ohio State, 12-0 Houston, 10-2 Oklahoma as B12 Champ, 10-2 Notre Dame

Enjoy the hell out of that madness

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Looking at it in writing makes it even more interesting;

• All 4 major P5 conferences are heavy in one division this year.
• The B1g east, The SEC west, The Pac 12 North and the ACC division that has Clemson, Louisville and FSU in it.
• The other side is made up of a bunch of low marquee names that could all be a 1-2 loss division champ.
• examples include; Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Utah ,Arizona State and Georgia Tech
• this doesn't increase the odds this year but the past 2 years have seen an inordinate lack of upsets in the last few weeks of each year. The old gamblers fallacy of being due just doesn't allow me to ignore it.

So say all hell breaks loose a la 2007 and you get a something like this

ACC champ: 10-2 Ga tech
SEC Champ: Bama
B1G Champ: 11-1 Iowa who has a loss to an FCS team
Pac 12 Champ: 11-1 Stanford

At large pool: 11-1 Clemson, 11-1 Ohio State, 12-0 Houston, 10-2 Oklahoma as B12 Champ, 10-2 Notre Dame

Enjoy the hell out of that madness

 

[buxfan4life]

Commas are your friend

At large pool: 11-1 Clemson, 11-1 Ohio State, 12-0 Houston, 10-2 Oklahoma as B12 Champ, 10-2 Notre Dame

 

[Jaxbuck]

Macro point being it looks like we are in a year ripe for a major upset that could really make some interesting madness at the end of the year (and probably hasten the expansion to 8 teams).

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Commas are your friend

At large pool: 11-1 Clemson, 11-1 Ohio State, 12-0 Houston, 10-2 Oklahoma as B12 Champ, 10-2 Notre Dame

Touche' Hey, it's 7:30 am here...

 

[Systems_id]

Looking at it in writing makes it even more interesting;

• All 4 major P5 conferences are heavy in one division this year.
• The B1g east, The SEC west, The Pac 12 North and the ACC division that has Clemson, Louisville and FSU in it.
• The other side is made up of a bunch of low marquee names that could all be a 1-2 loss division champ.
• examples include; Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Utah ,Arizona State and Georgia Tech
• this doesn't increase the odds this year but the past 2 years have seen an inordinate lack of upsets in the last few weeks of each year. The old gamblers fallacy of being due just doesn't allow me to ignore it.

So say all hell breaks loose a la 2007 and you get a something like this

ACC champ: 10-2 Ga tech
SEC Champ: Bama
B1G Champ: 11-1 Iowa who has a loss to an FCS team
Pac 12 Champ: 11-1 Stanford

At large pool: 11-1 Clemson, 11-1 Ohio State, 12-0 Houston, 10-2 Oklahoma as B12 Champ, 10-2 Notre Dame

Enjoy the hell out of that madness

Also enjoy the lowest ratings ever in the playoffs.

 

[LovelandBuckeye]

Looking at it in writing makes it even more interesting;

• All 4 major P5 conferences are heavy in one division this year.
• The B1g east, The SEC west, The Pac 12 North and the ACC division that has Clemson, Louisville and FSU in it.
• The other side is made up of a bunch of low marquee names that could all be a 1-2 loss division champ.
• examples include; Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Utah ,Arizona State and Georgia Tech
• this doesn't increase the odds this year but the past 2 years have seen an inordinate lack of upsets in the last few weeks of each year. The old gamblers fallacy of being due just doesn't allow me to ignore it.

So say all hell breaks loose a la 2007 and you get a something like this

ACC champ: 10-2 Ga tech
SEC Champ: Bama
B1G Champ: 11-1 Iowa who has a loss to an FCS team
Pac 12 Champ: 11-1 Stanford

At large pool: 11-1 Clemson, 11-1 Ohio State, 12-0 Houston, 10-2 Oklahoma as B12 Champ, 10-2 Notre Dame

Enjoy the hell out of that madness

Also enjoy the lowest ratings ever in the playoffs.

Heck yeah!

Bama vs Ga. Tech
Iowa vs Stanford

Ratings win right there.

 

[BigWoof31]

ACC champ: 10-2 Ga tech

 

[BuckeyeSoldier]

So say all hell breaks loose a la 2007 and you get a something like this

ACC champ: 10-2 Ga tech
SEC Champ: Bama
B1G Champ: 11-1 Iowa who has a loss to an FCS team
Pac 12 Champ: 11-1 Stanford

At large pool: 11-1 Clemson, 11-1 Ohio State, 12-0 Houston, 10-2 Oklahoma as B12 Champ, 10-2 Notre Dame

If Houston goes 12-0 with wins over Okie, and a Very good Louisville, they are in.
If Iowa wins out that means they beat Nebbie, Wisky, scUM, and tOSU or MSU either of which would be a top 3 team at that point. They are in.
Bama is unless they have 3 losses.

That last spot would be a beauty contest between Standford, tOSU, and Clemson.

 

[kujirakira]

If Houston goes 12-0 with wins over Okie, and a Very good Louisville, they are in.
If Iowa wins out that means they beat Nebbie, Wisky, scUM, and tOSU or MSU either of which would be a top 3 team at that point. They are in.
Bama is unless they have 3 losses.

That last spot would be a beauty contest between Standford, tOSU, and Clemson.

I think you can also safely throw in a 1-loss PAC champ.

 

[BuckeyeSoldier]

I think you can also safely throw in a 1-loss PAC champ.

That was my first thought as well... but their schedule just seemed underwhelming to me.... so i thought tOSU and Clemson would have a pretty good argument in the media at least.