Points left on the field. If you're like me, you get pretty frustrated when Ohio State settles for a field goal after getting a 1st and G from the 3, or when Ohio State turns the ball over inside the opponent's redzone. I often wonder just how many points the Buckeyes lose per season from these sorts of incidents. Perhaps it's because we watch Ohio State more carefully than every other school - but if you're like me, you get the sense sometimes that Ohio State leaves more points on the field than any other team in the nation. I suppose some of this feeling is born by games like the Miami game - that is to say "big games" - where the score is a lot closer than it might have been had everything gone Ohio State's way. None-the-less, as the summary below reveals, once we examine the season, aside from a few more TDs to celebrate, nothing would be different in the won-loss column. In this respect, perhaps not scoring every single time the Buckeyes get inside the 20 isn't that big of a deal in the whole scope of things. I don't know. But, I figure I'll worry less about it in the future - although a certain degree of attention still needs to be paid for the timeliness of those failures. Missing a TD when you're up 30 hardly matters. Missing it when you're trailing by a score or two could mean the difference between the BCS Championship and just a BCS Bowl bid.
If everything bounced Ohio State's way this season, what might have been? How many points did Ohio State leave on the field this season? Of course, what amounts to "points left on the field" is highly subjective and is modified as well by game decisions which are the "right thing to do" even though in a merciless world would probably have resulted in points (ie taking a knee to run out the game clock on 1st and G from the 4). What follows will consider two measures. One - the absolute most points Ohio State could have scored if things always went their way and they never kneeled to kill the clock. Two - the points Ohio State could have scored if things went differently, but with an eye on game situations (ie taking a knee)
Some "ground rules"
Any attempted FG, from whatever distance, will be assumed to have been a makeable kick. This may not always be true - for example, Barclay's 51 yard attempt which was blocked in the opener. None the less, in the best case world, Ohio State makes all the kicks. Likewise, in the best case world, Ohio State is willing to kick a 45 yard FG as time expires even in a blow out. Obviously, this is not the case in the "situational" analysis. Ohio State will not be penalized for punting instead of attempting long kicks (for example, a 54 yard possibility in the Marshall game), however.
FGs which were made, but where Ohio State probably should have scored a TD, result in a difference of 4 points. Ohio State will be judged as "probably should have scored a TD" on any drive that made it to the opponent's 20 or better.
Likewise, TDs will be assumed on any drive inside that made it to the 20 or better, but will count as 7 points if the FG was missed (again, 4 points if it was made).
Some scores will be based on my personal memory of the situation - a good example would be a potential TD from Jamaal Berry against Miami where he tripped on his own feet. Obviously counting these points would have changed the game considerably rendering the bulk of this analysis even more meaningless than it already is... but, what the heck, it's fun.
Possible defensive or special teams scores will be counted in the "best case" world - for example Cam Heyward's 80 yard INT in the Miami game (though, this particular missed TD actually resulted in a TD anyway, see below). Also, cases where the opponent could have done more are not considered - for example, Marshall drove deep into Ohio State territory, but fumbled at the 7. Could have scored 7, should have scored 3, actually scored 0. Tough luck. Finally, while interesting, this review will not consider points Ohio State yielded which they probably should not have (ie blocked FG returns, etc.)
Game 1: Ohio State 45 Marshall 7
Best Case: Ohio State 59 Marshall 7
Situational: Ohio State 52 Marshall 7
Best Case:
(3) Basil 52 yard FG attempt blocked.
(4) While Barclay hit a 34 yard FG, Ohio State moved the ball to 3rd and 3 at the Marshall 19.
(7) Ohio State took a knee to end the game after moving the ball to the Marshall 18 with :45 seconds left. A 5 yard penalty took the ball back to the 23 before time expired.
Points left on the field: 14
Situational:
Nothing wrong with taking a knee to run out the clock in a blow out. 7 Points listed above are therefore not counted.
Points left on field: 7
Here, a reasonable interpretation of what "could have been" might also forgive the 52 yard failure, resulting in a PLoF of just 4. But, I had to make up some rules and I have to stick to them, so we'll keep it at 7.
Game 2: Ohio State 36 Miami 24
Best Case: Ohio State 73 Miami 24
Situational: Ohio State 59 Miami 24
Frankly, this is the game that made me think to do this. Not only did Ohio State leave points on the field, but like the Marshall game, there's a feeling that they gave up too many as well. In any case;
Best Case:
(4) Ohio State had a 1st down at the Miami 13, and moved as deep as the Miami 4 yard line (nullified Herron run (penalty)). 24 Yard FG was good, however.
(7) Berry tripped over his own feet after beating the last man on a KO return. Ohio State did not score on the ensuing drive after this return.
(4) Hall had a 46 yard return which I might have counted here because he was pretty much stopped before popping out of the pile and getting more yard and nearly breaking it. But, that doesn't matter. Ohio State ended up with a 1st and goal at the 6 and did not punch it in. Ohio State scored a 21 yard FG.
(4) After a Checkwa pick, Ohio State moved the ball to the Miami 4 with :22 seconds remaining. They settled for a 24 yard FG.
NOTE: I might have included Cam Heywards 80 yard INT, but Ohio State scored a TD on the drive anyway.
(4) Again Ohio State works it below the 10 yard line only to settle for a short FG by Barclay (24 yards).
Note: Berry had a 45 yard kick return which possibly could have been housed as well. But, considering the result of the following drive it doesn't matter if he could have housed it in a perfect world
(7) Ohio State, first and 10 at the 14. Result: 32 yard MISSED (thanks Bucky) Barclay FG.
(7) The game ends after a 1st and G on the six results in taking a couple knees to run out the clock.
Points left on the field: 37
Situational:
Forgiven here, 7 points on Berry's return - partly because I'm not sure if this is the kick he tripped on, or if it's the other 40+ yarder and partly because it's a tad unfair to expect a return for TD in most cases. Likewise, 7 more can come off the board as taking a knee to kill the clock is "the right thing to do."
Points left on field: 23
Game 3: Ohio State 43 Ohio 7
Best Case: Ohio State 57 Ohio 7
Situational: Ohio State 51 Ohio 7
Best Case:
(4) A drive inside the 20 ends up in a 32 yard FG after Moeller's INT on Ohio's first possession.
(4) First and 10 at Ohio 16 results in a 33 yard FG.
(3) With time winding down, Ohio State faces 1st and 10 from the Ohio 22. An incompletion, sack and INT yield 0 points for the Buckeyes.
(3) Killing the clock, Bo DeLande gains 4 yards with :32 left on 2nd and 7.
Points left on field: 14
Situational: We'll forgive not kicking a FG as time expires in a blow out. Likewise, as much as I believe the drive should have resutled in 7 - and certainly at least 3 - Pryor's half ending INT means there was no FG left on the field as the best case scenario would have had it.
Points left on the field: 8
Game 4: Ohio State 73 Eastern Michigan 20
Best Case: Ohio State 73 Eastern Michigan 20
Situational: Ohio State 73 Eastern Michigan 20
Ohio State converted all the possible points in this game.
Game 5: Ohio State 24 Illinois 13
Best Case: Ohio State 28 Illinois 13
Situational: Ohio State 28 Illinois 13
Best case:
(4) Ohio State had moved the ball to the Illinois 16 after securing a 1st and 10 at the 18. A few plays later, Barclay kicked a 32 yard FG.
Points left of field: 4
Situational:
Same.
Game 6: Ohio State 38 Indiana 10
Best Case: Ohio State 52 Indiana 10
Situational: Ohio State 45 Indiana 10
Best Case:
(3) Ohio State misses a 53 yard Barclay FG attempt with 4:09 to go in the 1st quarter.
(4) Buckeyes move the ball below the 20 (2nd and 5 from the 19), end up with 36 yard FG.
(7) 3rd and 2 at the Indiana 9, Carlos Hyde fumbled after gaining enough for a first down at the six. Indiana recovered.
Points left on field: 14
Situational:
Really, as in the Marshall game there's not a lot of shame in missing a 53 yard kick. But, according to the rules, I have to count them. But, like Pryor's pick in the Ohio game, even though Hyde's fumble cost Ohio State 7, and at least 3, they can come off the board here.
Points left on field: 7
Game 7: Ohio State 18 Wisconsin 31
Best Case: Ohio State 25 Wisconsin 31
Situational: Ohio State 25 Wisconsin 31
Best Case:
(4) 9:00 to go in the 2nd. First and goal at the 3. Result: Barclay 21 yard FG.
(3) After a Sweat INT and 1st and 10 at the 23, Buckeyes end up missing a 45 yard FG.
Situational:
Same. I suppose there's some solace in knowing that even if things bounced Ohio State's way they were still 6 points worse on that night. Of course, it is little solace when we realize it was a special teams let down on the opening kick and a fairly meaningless FG (though an appropriate one) which created more of a difference on the score board than what might otherwise have been.
The long and short of it, though, is that Ohio State could not stop the Badgers when it counted. The only way this one may have been different would be if we take the KO return off the board, and give Ohio State 7 more points which probably "should have been" as detailed above. Had this happened, Ohio State would have been a point better 25 to 24. Of course, it's not likely they would have gone for 2 after Herron's TD run, which in this hypothetical would have brought it to 14-23, Buckeyes. An extra point would have made it 14-24, Ohio State. Badgers had 10 more points in them and this game would have gone to OT, at best.
Game 8: Ohio State 49 Purdue 0
Best Case: Ohio State 59 Purdue 0
Situational: Ohio State 49 Purdue 0
Best Case:
(7) With a 2nd and 4 at the Purdue 18, Pryor was intercepted with 9:20 left in the second quarter.
(3) 4th and 11 at the Purdue 28. Ohio State, if the game were on the line, would have attempted a 45 yard FG.
Points left on field: 10
Situational:
Per the rules, both failed scores come off. While the Buckeyes did go for it at the Purdue 28, that was more a mercy go for it than an honest attempt to continue the drive.
Points left on field: 0
Game 9: Ohio State 52 Minnesota 10
Best Case: Ohio State 73 Minnesota 10
Situational: Ohio State 63 Minnesota 10
Best Case:
(4) First and 10 at the Minnesota 14, and driving as deep as a 3rd and 2 at the 6, Ohio State settled for a 23 yard FG with 8:45 left in the 2nd.
(7) After Jordan Hall's 70 yard punt return, Pryor threw a pick on first and G from the 2.
(7) First and ten on the 12, with 8:40 left in the 3rd, Ohio State moves to the 4 before attempting, and missing, a 23 yard FG.
(3) Killing the clock, Ohio State runs Berry for 2 yards on 2nd and 11 from the 23.
Points left on field: 21
Situational:
Another red zone pick and yet another 7 situational points come off the board. As with other games, no problem in not trying to score as time expires in a blow out.
Points left on field 11
Game 10: Ohio State 38 Penn State 14
Best Case: Ohio State 49 Penn State 14
Situational: Ohio State 42 Penn State 14
Best Case:
(4) Off to a slow start, Buckeyes settle for a 26 yard FG after having a 1st down at the PSU 13 on the opening drive.
(7) Buckeyes obtain the 20 on a Pryor 3 yard run on 1st and ten from the 23. A 5 yard penalty and an INT later and the Buckeyes realized 0 points.
Points left on field: 11
Situational:
Hey, look at that, seven points come back because of a red zone INT.
Points left on field: 4
Game 11: Ohio State 20 Iowa 17
Best Case: Ohio State 24 Iowa 17
Situational: Ohio State 24 Iowa 17
Best Case:
(4) 1st and goal at the 10 with 13:35 to go in the 2nd, Buckeyes settle for an 18 yard field goal instead of punching it in on 3rd and goal from the 1.
Points left on field: 4
Situational: same
Points on field: 4
Game 12: Ohio State 37 Michigan 7
Best Case: Ohio State 63 Michigan 7
Situational: Ohio State 49 Michigan 7
Best Case:
(4) 1st and 10 at the Michigan 17 and the Buckeyes wind up with a 34 yard FG.
(7) First and 10 at the Michigan 11 and with :26 to go in the half, Buckeyes move to the 8 before a sack and a pick yield 0 Buckeye points.
(4) Ohio State takes over at their own 2. Boom pops off a 98 yard TD. Bogus holding call gives OSU 1st down at the 19. Settle for 36 yard Field Goal.
(4) 3rd and 4 from the Michigan 6 with 1:40 left in the 3rd, Buckeyes fail to convert and kick a 23 yard FG.
(7) :26 left and Ohio State has 2nd and goal from the Michigan 8. Takes a knee.
Points left on field: 26
Situational:
Another red zone pick removes 7 and we'll forgive the taking of a knee to end this slaughter. The Buckeyes actually lost 4 points on Boom's run, but even with the penalty, the Buckeyes were in great position to score a TD. As a result, we'll leave those points as still on the field even if some think they may be in an official's back pocket right now.
Points left on field: 12
Summary:
In the best case world, Ohio State would have performed as follows:
Ohio State 59 Marshall 7
Ohio State 73 Miami 24
Ohio State 57 Ohio 7
Ohio State 73 Eastern Michigan 20
Ohio State 52 Indiana 10
Ohio State 25 Wisconsin 31
Ohio State 59 Purdue 0
Ohio State 73 Minnesota 10
Ohio State 49 Penn State 14
Ohio State 24 Iowa 17
Ohio State 63 Michigan 7
Ohio State 607 Opponent: 147
The Buckeyes actually scored 473 points this season and therefore left 134 points on the field. That works out to be about a TD and a FG per game.
Still, expecting literally everything to go Ohio State's way, as well as expecting the Buckeyes to forgo taking a knee in an effort to go all Bobby Stoops on someone is unreasonable. As a result, we can look at the "situational" points left on the field. On this measure, the Buckeyes left a total of 87 points on the field from what could have been a season total of 557 points. This works out to be a TD per game that the Buckeyes failed to score. It would have been more had Pryor not thrown as many red zone picks as he did.
In any event, even if everything went Ohio State's way, the Buckeyes still would have lost to Wisconsin. In case you're interested, I counted 5 TDs which opponents scored which Ohio State "should not have yielded" (Blocked FG return, 2 punt returns, 2 KO returns and a INT deep in Ohio State territory) While it's surely not reasonable to take those points off of the Opponent's tally - and it's equally true that several opponents left points on the field as well (prior to Heywards 80 yard INT, for example, Miami was all but assured a touchdown) - Ohio State could have outscored opponents 607-112 or 50.6 to 9.3 per game. All in all, 39.4 to 12.3 doesn't seem that much different, does it? I mean, the Buckeyes would still be 11-1 right now even if they did score 607 and give up 112.
It's interesting to me that of all the points left on the field, the bulk of them were points missed in blow outs making them virtually irrelevant. As revealed above, Ohio State scored nearly all the points it otherwise should have in close games against the Illini and Hawkeyes. Even in the loss, the Buckeyes scored nearly as much as they could have and it still wasn't enough on that night. In this respect, Ohio State's 6 red-zone turnovers (5 INTs and 1 fumble) did not hurt Ohio State this season. Sure, we can argue that Ohio State should have those 42 points on their resume. But, really, it doesn't matter - at least not this season.
It would take too much effort, but I do wonder how Ohio State might compare to other teams in the nation. Frankly, I bet Ohio State is about average here, or maybe even better than average at getting all the points they might possibly get. Indeed, this season Ohio State scored 78% of the points the "best case" world would have permitted, and 85% of all the points they might reasonably have been expected to score (a number that does get worse when we consider red zone turnovers that should have resulted in TDs probably, and FGs almost certainly, but of which reveals Ohio State still scoring about 80& of it's possible points this season).
If everything bounced Ohio State's way this season, what might have been? How many points did Ohio State leave on the field this season? Of course, what amounts to "points left on the field" is highly subjective and is modified as well by game decisions which are the "right thing to do" even though in a merciless world would probably have resulted in points (ie taking a knee to run out the game clock on 1st and G from the 4). What follows will consider two measures. One - the absolute most points Ohio State could have scored if things always went their way and they never kneeled to kill the clock. Two - the points Ohio State could have scored if things went differently, but with an eye on game situations (ie taking a knee)
Some "ground rules"
Any attempted FG, from whatever distance, will be assumed to have been a makeable kick. This may not always be true - for example, Barclay's 51 yard attempt which was blocked in the opener. None the less, in the best case world, Ohio State makes all the kicks. Likewise, in the best case world, Ohio State is willing to kick a 45 yard FG as time expires even in a blow out. Obviously, this is not the case in the "situational" analysis. Ohio State will not be penalized for punting instead of attempting long kicks (for example, a 54 yard possibility in the Marshall game), however.
FGs which were made, but where Ohio State probably should have scored a TD, result in a difference of 4 points. Ohio State will be judged as "probably should have scored a TD" on any drive that made it to the opponent's 20 or better.
Likewise, TDs will be assumed on any drive inside that made it to the 20 or better, but will count as 7 points if the FG was missed (again, 4 points if it was made).
Some scores will be based on my personal memory of the situation - a good example would be a potential TD from Jamaal Berry against Miami where he tripped on his own feet. Obviously counting these points would have changed the game considerably rendering the bulk of this analysis even more meaningless than it already is... but, what the heck, it's fun.
Possible defensive or special teams scores will be counted in the "best case" world - for example Cam Heyward's 80 yard INT in the Miami game (though, this particular missed TD actually resulted in a TD anyway, see below). Also, cases where the opponent could have done more are not considered - for example, Marshall drove deep into Ohio State territory, but fumbled at the 7. Could have scored 7, should have scored 3, actually scored 0. Tough luck. Finally, while interesting, this review will not consider points Ohio State yielded which they probably should not have (ie blocked FG returns, etc.)
Game 1: Ohio State 45 Marshall 7
Best Case: Ohio State 59 Marshall 7
Situational: Ohio State 52 Marshall 7
Best Case:
(3) Basil 52 yard FG attempt blocked.
(4) While Barclay hit a 34 yard FG, Ohio State moved the ball to 3rd and 3 at the Marshall 19.
(7) Ohio State took a knee to end the game after moving the ball to the Marshall 18 with :45 seconds left. A 5 yard penalty took the ball back to the 23 before time expired.
Points left on the field: 14
Situational:
Nothing wrong with taking a knee to run out the clock in a blow out. 7 Points listed above are therefore not counted.
Points left on field: 7
Here, a reasonable interpretation of what "could have been" might also forgive the 52 yard failure, resulting in a PLoF of just 4. But, I had to make up some rules and I have to stick to them, so we'll keep it at 7.
Game 2: Ohio State 36 Miami 24
Best Case: Ohio State 73 Miami 24
Situational: Ohio State 59 Miami 24
Frankly, this is the game that made me think to do this. Not only did Ohio State leave points on the field, but like the Marshall game, there's a feeling that they gave up too many as well. In any case;
Best Case:
(4) Ohio State had a 1st down at the Miami 13, and moved as deep as the Miami 4 yard line (nullified Herron run (penalty)). 24 Yard FG was good, however.
(7) Berry tripped over his own feet after beating the last man on a KO return. Ohio State did not score on the ensuing drive after this return.
(4) Hall had a 46 yard return which I might have counted here because he was pretty much stopped before popping out of the pile and getting more yard and nearly breaking it. But, that doesn't matter. Ohio State ended up with a 1st and goal at the 6 and did not punch it in. Ohio State scored a 21 yard FG.
(4) After a Checkwa pick, Ohio State moved the ball to the Miami 4 with :22 seconds remaining. They settled for a 24 yard FG.
NOTE: I might have included Cam Heywards 80 yard INT, but Ohio State scored a TD on the drive anyway.
(4) Again Ohio State works it below the 10 yard line only to settle for a short FG by Barclay (24 yards).
Note: Berry had a 45 yard kick return which possibly could have been housed as well. But, considering the result of the following drive it doesn't matter if he could have housed it in a perfect world
(7) Ohio State, first and 10 at the 14. Result: 32 yard MISSED (thanks Bucky) Barclay FG.
(7) The game ends after a 1st and G on the six results in taking a couple knees to run out the clock.
Points left on the field: 37
Situational:
Forgiven here, 7 points on Berry's return - partly because I'm not sure if this is the kick he tripped on, or if it's the other 40+ yarder and partly because it's a tad unfair to expect a return for TD in most cases. Likewise, 7 more can come off the board as taking a knee to kill the clock is "the right thing to do."
Points left on field: 23
Game 3: Ohio State 43 Ohio 7
Best Case: Ohio State 57 Ohio 7
Situational: Ohio State 51 Ohio 7
Best Case:
(4) A drive inside the 20 ends up in a 32 yard FG after Moeller's INT on Ohio's first possession.
(4) First and 10 at Ohio 16 results in a 33 yard FG.
(3) With time winding down, Ohio State faces 1st and 10 from the Ohio 22. An incompletion, sack and INT yield 0 points for the Buckeyes.
(3) Killing the clock, Bo DeLande gains 4 yards with :32 left on 2nd and 7.
Points left on field: 14
Situational: We'll forgive not kicking a FG as time expires in a blow out. Likewise, as much as I believe the drive should have resutled in 7 - and certainly at least 3 - Pryor's half ending INT means there was no FG left on the field as the best case scenario would have had it.
Points left on the field: 8
Game 4: Ohio State 73 Eastern Michigan 20
Best Case: Ohio State 73 Eastern Michigan 20
Situational: Ohio State 73 Eastern Michigan 20
Ohio State converted all the possible points in this game.
Game 5: Ohio State 24 Illinois 13
Best Case: Ohio State 28 Illinois 13
Situational: Ohio State 28 Illinois 13
Best case:
(4) Ohio State had moved the ball to the Illinois 16 after securing a 1st and 10 at the 18. A few plays later, Barclay kicked a 32 yard FG.
Points left of field: 4
Situational:
Same.
Game 6: Ohio State 38 Indiana 10
Best Case: Ohio State 52 Indiana 10
Situational: Ohio State 45 Indiana 10
Best Case:
(3) Ohio State misses a 53 yard Barclay FG attempt with 4:09 to go in the 1st quarter.
(4) Buckeyes move the ball below the 20 (2nd and 5 from the 19), end up with 36 yard FG.
(7) 3rd and 2 at the Indiana 9, Carlos Hyde fumbled after gaining enough for a first down at the six. Indiana recovered.
Points left on field: 14
Situational:
Really, as in the Marshall game there's not a lot of shame in missing a 53 yard kick. But, according to the rules, I have to count them. But, like Pryor's pick in the Ohio game, even though Hyde's fumble cost Ohio State 7, and at least 3, they can come off the board here.
Points left on field: 7
Game 7: Ohio State 18 Wisconsin 31
Best Case: Ohio State 25 Wisconsin 31
Situational: Ohio State 25 Wisconsin 31
Best Case:
(4) 9:00 to go in the 2nd. First and goal at the 3. Result: Barclay 21 yard FG.
(3) After a Sweat INT and 1st and 10 at the 23, Buckeyes end up missing a 45 yard FG.
Situational:
Same. I suppose there's some solace in knowing that even if things bounced Ohio State's way they were still 6 points worse on that night. Of course, it is little solace when we realize it was a special teams let down on the opening kick and a fairly meaningless FG (though an appropriate one) which created more of a difference on the score board than what might otherwise have been.
The long and short of it, though, is that Ohio State could not stop the Badgers when it counted. The only way this one may have been different would be if we take the KO return off the board, and give Ohio State 7 more points which probably "should have been" as detailed above. Had this happened, Ohio State would have been a point better 25 to 24. Of course, it's not likely they would have gone for 2 after Herron's TD run, which in this hypothetical would have brought it to 14-23, Buckeyes. An extra point would have made it 14-24, Ohio State. Badgers had 10 more points in them and this game would have gone to OT, at best.
Game 8: Ohio State 49 Purdue 0
Best Case: Ohio State 59 Purdue 0
Situational: Ohio State 49 Purdue 0
Best Case:
(7) With a 2nd and 4 at the Purdue 18, Pryor was intercepted with 9:20 left in the second quarter.
(3) 4th and 11 at the Purdue 28. Ohio State, if the game were on the line, would have attempted a 45 yard FG.
Points left on field: 10
Situational:
Per the rules, both failed scores come off. While the Buckeyes did go for it at the Purdue 28, that was more a mercy go for it than an honest attempt to continue the drive.
Points left on field: 0
Game 9: Ohio State 52 Minnesota 10
Best Case: Ohio State 73 Minnesota 10
Situational: Ohio State 63 Minnesota 10
Best Case:
(4) First and 10 at the Minnesota 14, and driving as deep as a 3rd and 2 at the 6, Ohio State settled for a 23 yard FG with 8:45 left in the 2nd.
(7) After Jordan Hall's 70 yard punt return, Pryor threw a pick on first and G from the 2.
(7) First and ten on the 12, with 8:40 left in the 3rd, Ohio State moves to the 4 before attempting, and missing, a 23 yard FG.
(3) Killing the clock, Ohio State runs Berry for 2 yards on 2nd and 11 from the 23.
Points left on field: 21
Situational:
Another red zone pick and yet another 7 situational points come off the board. As with other games, no problem in not trying to score as time expires in a blow out.
Points left on field 11
Game 10: Ohio State 38 Penn State 14
Best Case: Ohio State 49 Penn State 14
Situational: Ohio State 42 Penn State 14
Best Case:
(4) Off to a slow start, Buckeyes settle for a 26 yard FG after having a 1st down at the PSU 13 on the opening drive.
(7) Buckeyes obtain the 20 on a Pryor 3 yard run on 1st and ten from the 23. A 5 yard penalty and an INT later and the Buckeyes realized 0 points.
Points left on field: 11
Situational:
Hey, look at that, seven points come back because of a red zone INT.
Points left on field: 4
Game 11: Ohio State 20 Iowa 17
Best Case: Ohio State 24 Iowa 17
Situational: Ohio State 24 Iowa 17
Best Case:
(4) 1st and goal at the 10 with 13:35 to go in the 2nd, Buckeyes settle for an 18 yard field goal instead of punching it in on 3rd and goal from the 1.
Points left on field: 4
Situational: same
Points on field: 4
Game 12: Ohio State 37 Michigan 7
Best Case: Ohio State 63 Michigan 7
Situational: Ohio State 49 Michigan 7
Best Case:
(4) 1st and 10 at the Michigan 17 and the Buckeyes wind up with a 34 yard FG.
(7) First and 10 at the Michigan 11 and with :26 to go in the half, Buckeyes move to the 8 before a sack and a pick yield 0 Buckeye points.
(4) Ohio State takes over at their own 2. Boom pops off a 98 yard TD. Bogus holding call gives OSU 1st down at the 19. Settle for 36 yard Field Goal.
(4) 3rd and 4 from the Michigan 6 with 1:40 left in the 3rd, Buckeyes fail to convert and kick a 23 yard FG.
(7) :26 left and Ohio State has 2nd and goal from the Michigan 8. Takes a knee.
Points left on field: 26
Situational:
Another red zone pick removes 7 and we'll forgive the taking of a knee to end this slaughter. The Buckeyes actually lost 4 points on Boom's run, but even with the penalty, the Buckeyes were in great position to score a TD. As a result, we'll leave those points as still on the field even if some think they may be in an official's back pocket right now.
Points left on field: 12
Summary:
In the best case world, Ohio State would have performed as follows:
Ohio State 59 Marshall 7
Ohio State 73 Miami 24
Ohio State 57 Ohio 7
Ohio State 73 Eastern Michigan 20
Ohio State 52 Indiana 10
Ohio State 25 Wisconsin 31
Ohio State 59 Purdue 0
Ohio State 73 Minnesota 10
Ohio State 49 Penn State 14
Ohio State 24 Iowa 17
Ohio State 63 Michigan 7
Ohio State 607 Opponent: 147
The Buckeyes actually scored 473 points this season and therefore left 134 points on the field. That works out to be about a TD and a FG per game.
Still, expecting literally everything to go Ohio State's way, as well as expecting the Buckeyes to forgo taking a knee in an effort to go all Bobby Stoops on someone is unreasonable. As a result, we can look at the "situational" points left on the field. On this measure, the Buckeyes left a total of 87 points on the field from what could have been a season total of 557 points. This works out to be a TD per game that the Buckeyes failed to score. It would have been more had Pryor not thrown as many red zone picks as he did.
In any event, even if everything went Ohio State's way, the Buckeyes still would have lost to Wisconsin. In case you're interested, I counted 5 TDs which opponents scored which Ohio State "should not have yielded" (Blocked FG return, 2 punt returns, 2 KO returns and a INT deep in Ohio State territory) While it's surely not reasonable to take those points off of the Opponent's tally - and it's equally true that several opponents left points on the field as well (prior to Heywards 80 yard INT, for example, Miami was all but assured a touchdown) - Ohio State could have outscored opponents 607-112 or 50.6 to 9.3 per game. All in all, 39.4 to 12.3 doesn't seem that much different, does it? I mean, the Buckeyes would still be 11-1 right now even if they did score 607 and give up 112.
It's interesting to me that of all the points left on the field, the bulk of them were points missed in blow outs making them virtually irrelevant. As revealed above, Ohio State scored nearly all the points it otherwise should have in close games against the Illini and Hawkeyes. Even in the loss, the Buckeyes scored nearly as much as they could have and it still wasn't enough on that night. In this respect, Ohio State's 6 red-zone turnovers (5 INTs and 1 fumble) did not hurt Ohio State this season. Sure, we can argue that Ohio State should have those 42 points on their resume. But, really, it doesn't matter - at least not this season.
It would take too much effort, but I do wonder how Ohio State might compare to other teams in the nation. Frankly, I bet Ohio State is about average here, or maybe even better than average at getting all the points they might possibly get. Indeed, this season Ohio State scored 78% of the points the "best case" world would have permitted, and 85% of all the points they might reasonably have been expected to score (a number that does get worse when we consider red zone turnovers that should have resulted in TDs probably, and FGs almost certainly, but of which reveals Ohio State still scoring about 80& of it's possible points this season).
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