BB73;1559184; said:
I was taking the 9.5 if Tebow played.
I thought about GT at first but I learned a long time ago that ACC football and rcash do not mix (at least for me).
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I was taking the 9.5 if Tebow played.
I thought about GT at first but I learned a long time ago that ACC football and rcash do not mix (at least for me).
Jaxbuck;1559193; said:
I expect him to play. but he may be a tad slow in making decisions, and they may be hesitant to run him up the middle so much. Florida's third down conversions could be down considerably due to both of those things.
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Thought I would dust this bad boy off for this one. I started keeping a blog about a week ago on a topic that I've always been fascinated with and wanted some feedback (no link included on purpose, not a spam fan myself)
The subject is using lessons from the finance discipline to help people become more successful sports bettors. This post in particular starts to touch on behavioral finance.
I would appreciate feedback if anyone cares to. The stuff is straight in my head but its been a while since I've written at length so I'm not sure if I'm making myself clear to the audience.
thanks in advance
Why do sensible and generally rational people sometimes make foolish and irrational decisions when it comes to sports betting? Concepts from the field of psychology, called behavioral finance in the investing world, can be useful in describing the traps that often ensnare bettors and can hopefully help readers make more reasonable choices in their own betting.
It may be a bit long and some dry reading but you should grind through it (several times actually) to gain an insight into what it is saying and develop your knowledge from there. Due to the scope of the concept I will break it into small installments over the coming days to make it easier to digest for those who may not have been exposed to these concepts previously.
Essentially behavioral finance says that the human thinking process does not work like a computer but instead processes information using shortcuts and emotional filters. An investor/bettor that is aware of these psychological biases and works to minimize their affect on his decision making will have a decided edge over the majority of the public money that does not. That is the point I hopefully communicate in every post on this blog, how to use concepts from other disciplines (mainly finance) to improve your betting results.
Prospect Theory
The traditional view of human behavior is that people are always rational when it comes to financial decisions. This normative (description of what people should do) approach tells how people should act in order to maximize wealth. It is the underlying assumption that has allowed to field of finance to develop portfolio theory, CAPM, arbitrage theory and option pricing theory. In contrast to this view of what people should do, behavioral finance studies how people actually behave when money is on the line.
One important concept to understand in Prospect Theory is called anchoring. Anchoring is simply a strong mental attachment to a certain price. It is important to remember because the founders of Prospect theory, Kahneman and Tversky, use it to illustrate a subtle yet powerful behavior that is insightful for bettors.
The idea is that essentially bettors/investors are happy with say a $100 win but not twice as happy with the next $100 they win and likewise on the down side. Bettors feel pain for the $100 loss but not twice as much with the next $100 lost. The downside is however much more powerful than the upside.
In the betting world we have all heard the phrase ?let your winners run and cut your losses short? well Prospect theory starts to shed light into why otherwise rational human beings have so much difficulty actually executing this simple concept. Put simply, people hate to lose money more than they like to win it!
?So how in the hell does this help me make money, oh long winded one?? asks the dubious and bored reader. I?ll tell you. One of the worst things I see bettors do on an almost nightly basis is try chase their losses on a late game. They are anchored to a number which was their bankroll size at the beginning of the day and when it goes down they feel the pain of loss more so than they would feel the satisfaction of a gain and instead of simply shrugging their shoulders and chalking it up to the nature of sports betting they try and make it all back with a big hit at the end of the night. The flaws in this behavior are obvious, the bettor ends up putting a larger than optimal percent of their new bankroll size at risk in a spot that is probably less than a great value. In fact they probably wouldn?t have played the game at all if it were at say 7:00 instead of 11:30!
So the next time you feel the urge to chase, remember Prospect Theory. Everyone feels these urges from Wall Street to Vegas to a dorm room, the pro?s have the self awareness and discipline to avoid acting on the urge to chase. If you want to stop losing in big chunks on a bad night you need to develop this discipline yourself!
More next time and until then, as always Best of Luck in whatever you play!
The subject is using lessons from the finance discipline to help people become more successful sports bettors. This post in particular starts to touch on behavioral finance.
I would appreciate feedback if anyone cares to. The stuff is straight in my head but its been a while since I've written at length so I'm not sure if I'm making myself clear to the audience.
thanks in advance
Why do sensible and generally rational people sometimes make foolish and irrational decisions when it comes to sports betting? Concepts from the field of psychology, called behavioral finance in the investing world, can be useful in describing the traps that often ensnare bettors and can hopefully help readers make more reasonable choices in their own betting.
It may be a bit long and some dry reading but you should grind through it (several times actually) to gain an insight into what it is saying and develop your knowledge from there. Due to the scope of the concept I will break it into small installments over the coming days to make it easier to digest for those who may not have been exposed to these concepts previously.
Essentially behavioral finance says that the human thinking process does not work like a computer but instead processes information using shortcuts and emotional filters. An investor/bettor that is aware of these psychological biases and works to minimize their affect on his decision making will have a decided edge over the majority of the public money that does not. That is the point I hopefully communicate in every post on this blog, how to use concepts from other disciplines (mainly finance) to improve your betting results.
Prospect Theory
The traditional view of human behavior is that people are always rational when it comes to financial decisions. This normative (description of what people should do) approach tells how people should act in order to maximize wealth. It is the underlying assumption that has allowed to field of finance to develop portfolio theory, CAPM, arbitrage theory and option pricing theory. In contrast to this view of what people should do, behavioral finance studies how people actually behave when money is on the line.
One important concept to understand in Prospect Theory is called anchoring. Anchoring is simply a strong mental attachment to a certain price. It is important to remember because the founders of Prospect theory, Kahneman and Tversky, use it to illustrate a subtle yet powerful behavior that is insightful for bettors.
The idea is that essentially bettors/investors are happy with say a $100 win but not twice as happy with the next $100 they win and likewise on the down side. Bettors feel pain for the $100 loss but not twice as much with the next $100 lost. The downside is however much more powerful than the upside.
In the betting world we have all heard the phrase ?let your winners run and cut your losses short? well Prospect theory starts to shed light into why otherwise rational human beings have so much difficulty actually executing this simple concept. Put simply, people hate to lose money more than they like to win it!
?So how in the hell does this help me make money, oh long winded one?? asks the dubious and bored reader. I?ll tell you. One of the worst things I see bettors do on an almost nightly basis is try chase their losses on a late game. They are anchored to a number which was their bankroll size at the beginning of the day and when it goes down they feel the pain of loss more so than they would feel the satisfaction of a gain and instead of simply shrugging their shoulders and chalking it up to the nature of sports betting they try and make it all back with a big hit at the end of the night. The flaws in this behavior are obvious, the bettor ends up putting a larger than optimal percent of their new bankroll size at risk in a spot that is probably less than a great value. In fact they probably wouldn?t have played the game at all if it were at say 7:00 instead of 11:30!
So the next time you feel the urge to chase, remember Prospect Theory. Everyone feels these urges from Wall Street to Vegas to a dorm room, the pro?s have the self awareness and discipline to avoid acting on the urge to chase. If you want to stop losing in big chunks on a bad night you need to develop this discipline yourself!
More next time and until then, as always Best of Luck in whatever you play!
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Part II
Gamblers Fallacy and Statistical Significance.
If I flipped a coin and it landed heads ten times in a row what do you think the odds are that the 11th flip lands heads? If you thought anything along the lines of "not very good" or "tails is due" then your brain is using a shortcut to process information called "gamblers fallacy." The odds of the coin coming down heads is 50/50, the previous flips have no influence at all on the next flip.
The human brain is very good at detecting patterns and using that information to make decisions. The problem sports bettors, and investors, run into is that they often think they have identified a pattern in what is really just random data.
I am not introducing anything new to the field of statistics at this point by pointing out you must test your data for any kind of statistical significance. Without going too deep into how to do this I will simply say that for the purposes of sports betting you should be looking for a 1:1000 event.
For example, you believe you see a pattern in hockey where home teams playing the first game after a 3 game or more road trip and who are +200 or better on the ML win a high percentage of the time. If you test this hypothesis it needs to have a minimum winning record of 66-34 out of a 100 game sample size to be statistically significant.
Hopefully this helps to get you thinking about how your brains natural processing of information can sometimes lead to mistakes and one way you can use statistics to combat that. Also, if you are not familiar with using statistics formally hopefully this will lead you to investigate that discipline more thoroughly. It will help you win more bets.
That is all for now and as always Best Of Luck in whatever you play!
Gamblers Fallacy and Statistical Significance.
If I flipped a coin and it landed heads ten times in a row what do you think the odds are that the 11th flip lands heads? If you thought anything along the lines of "not very good" or "tails is due" then your brain is using a shortcut to process information called "gamblers fallacy." The odds of the coin coming down heads is 50/50, the previous flips have no influence at all on the next flip.
The human brain is very good at detecting patterns and using that information to make decisions. The problem sports bettors, and investors, run into is that they often think they have identified a pattern in what is really just random data.
I am not introducing anything new to the field of statistics at this point by pointing out you must test your data for any kind of statistical significance. Without going too deep into how to do this I will simply say that for the purposes of sports betting you should be looking for a 1:1000 event.
For example, you believe you see a pattern in hockey where home teams playing the first game after a 3 game or more road trip and who are +200 or better on the ML win a high percentage of the time. If you test this hypothesis it needs to have a minimum winning record of 66-34 out of a 100 game sample size to be statistically significant.
Hopefully this helps to get you thinking about how your brains natural processing of information can sometimes lead to mistakes and one way you can use statistics to combat that. Also, if you are not familiar with using statistics formally hopefully this will lead you to investigate that discipline more thoroughly. It will help you win more bets.
That is all for now and as always Best Of Luck in whatever you play!
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Last installment on this topic for now and I wanted to summarize as concisely as possible while giving a practical application that hopefully people can use to improve their own game.
The fact of the matter is emotions play a huge role in bettors decisions. The challenge is to avoid psychological biases that make rational decision making difficult. The catch being these biases are subtle and hard to recognize, so to steal a page from the successful market investors play book use Betting Rules of Thumb. These are just a list of simple procedures created in advance to help you make good decisions and minimize the emotional bias that can trip us all up. These are adapted from a great finance textbook, "Investments Analysis and Behavior" by Mark Hirschey and John Nofsinger.
I look at my sports betting as a business and to be successful a business must operate under the following principles;
The fact of the matter is emotions play a huge role in bettors decisions. The challenge is to avoid psychological biases that make rational decision making difficult. The catch being these biases are subtle and hard to recognize, so to steal a page from the successful market investors play book use Betting Rules of Thumb. These are just a list of simple procedures created in advance to help you make good decisions and minimize the emotional bias that can trip us all up. These are adapted from a great finance textbook, "Investments Analysis and Behavior" by Mark Hirschey and John Nofsinger.
- Stay the course: maintain a long term perspective. The only way to build significant wealth is through regular contributions to your bankroll. Chasing a quick big hit is the surest way to bust out.
- Long run returns reflect underlying business prospects: Don't be surprised when pigs don't fly. Try to avoid betting on bad teams or in negative EV situations.
- Dumb money ceases to be dumb when it realizes its limitations: I know this to be true in my case. I busted out a couple of times until I admitted I was a bad sports bettor and started to study and learn why I was making the mistakes I was making. My bankroll has gone up ever since.Attaching your ego to your picks is an easy trap to fall in to.
- Don't confuse luck with brains: It isn't always due to skill when you win or bad luck when you lose. Set the ego and emotions aside, learn from each situation no matter the outcome.
- Let your winners run, cut your losses short: Be willing to admit a mistake, don't compound it by chasing. Being wrong and stubborn can be very expensive.
- Bulls can make money, bears can make money, hogs get slaughtered: Be very aware of the size of your bet in terms of percentage of total bankroll. Risk should always be the primary concern, how much do you stand to lose with a bet?
I look at my sports betting as a business and to be successful a business must operate under the following principles;
- Preservation of capital:As stated above, my primary concern is how much do I stand to lose if I'm wrong, not how much can I win. Keep a personal acceptable risk reward ratio and stick to it. If a bet/investment doesn't offer the right price for the amount of risk then its a no play.
- Consistent profitability: This dovetails with stay the course. Look to consistently add a certain reasonable percentage to your bankroll on a monthly or even quarterly basis. This will keep you from over extending yourself in search of the quick hit.
- Pursuit of superior returns: Lets say you have a quarterly accounting system and start with $10,000 to invest/bet. I would recommend that you make your bet sizes somewhere between 3-5% of the total depending on how much edge you feel you have on any given play. If the first bet of say $330 wins and you clear $300 I would set aside half the winnings ($150) and make any future bets between 3-5% of my new bankroll which is $10,150. Likewise if my first bet is a loss my next bet will have to be 3-5% of $9,670. This way as you win you are not only banking profits you are playing for bigger stakes. When you lose you are protecting yourself from a run of bad luck/poor performance breaking you.
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MD Buckeye
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Last week:
UCF +2 (Loss)
Michigan/SD State Under 57 (Win)
Michigan State -21.5 (Win)
Miami -14 (Loss)
ECU -16.5 (Loss)
Parlay: Baylor -20.5 & Oregon -15.5 (Win)
New Orleans -4 (Win)
Ravens -6 (Win)
Steelers -11 (Loss)
Parlay: Redskins +3.5 & Under 44.5 (Win)
6-4 on the week (NCAA 3-3; NFL 3-1)
9-7 on the year (NCAA 6-4; NFL 3-3)
-------------------------------------------------
Leans for this week
NCAA:
Navy -3 vs. Air Force
Cincinnati -14.5 @ Miami OH
Baylor -3.5 @ Kansas State
Stanford -20.5 vs. UCLA
Arizona State -18 vs. Oregon State
Tennessee -28.5 vs. Buffalo
WVU -20 vs. Bowling Green
Boise State -27.5 vs. Nevada
Georgia Tech -11.5 @ NC State
NFL:
Detroit +1 @ Dallas
Chicago -6.5 vs. Carolina
New York Giants -1.5 @ Arizona
Baltimore -3.5 vs. New York Jets
UCF +2 (Loss)
Michigan/SD State Under 57 (Win)
Michigan State -21.5 (Win)
Miami -14 (Loss)
ECU -16.5 (Loss)
Parlay: Baylor -20.5 & Oregon -15.5 (Win)
New Orleans -4 (Win)
Ravens -6 (Win)
Steelers -11 (Loss)
Parlay: Redskins +3.5 & Under 44.5 (Win)
6-4 on the week (NCAA 3-3; NFL 3-1)
9-7 on the year (NCAA 6-4; NFL 3-3)
-------------------------------------------------
Leans for this week
NCAA:
Navy -3 vs. Air Force
Cincinnati -14.5 @ Miami OH
Baylor -3.5 @ Kansas State
Stanford -20.5 vs. UCLA
Arizona State -18 vs. Oregon State
Tennessee -28.5 vs. Buffalo
WVU -20 vs. Bowling Green
Boise State -27.5 vs. Nevada
Georgia Tech -11.5 @ NC State
NFL:
Detroit +1 @ Dallas
Chicago -6.5 vs. Carolina
New York Giants -1.5 @ Arizona
Baltimore -3.5 vs. New York Jets
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MD Buckeye;2000619; said:
I'm not really playing CFB this year so of your NFL picks I'd strongly disagree with the last one and would take Detroit ML instead of the point at (-110) if you think they are going to win.
Carolina and Arizona are pretty goddamn bad but Chicago and NYG are two teams I'd think long and hard about laying road chalk on. Thats just me though, I pass on a lot of winners because I have a genetic aversion to road teams laying points (although when they are just giving money away like Baltimore @ St Louis last week I tend to bet big
)EDIT*****
OK I'm a moron, you had the home teams first on those (maybe looking at the schedule would help. Doh!)
Disregard.
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MD Buckeye
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Jaxbuck;2000633; said:I'm not really playing CFB this year so of your NFL picks I'd strongly disagree with the last one and would take Detroit ML instead of the point at (-110) if you think they are going to win.
Carolina and Arizona are pretty goddamn bad but Chicago and NYG are two teams I'd think long and hard about laying road chalk on. Thats just me though, I pass on a lot of winners because I have a genetic aversion to road teams laying points (although when they are just giving money away like Baltimore @ St Louis last week I tend to bet big
EDIT*****
OK I'm a moron, you had the home teams first on those (maybe looking at the schedule would help. Doh!)
Disregard.
Thanks for the info. Really all depends on how I do Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see Detroit -3 by the time Sunday gets here, which I'd stay away from. I'm sure NYG's will be favored by more as well by the time Sunday gets here. I think Baltimore will get after Sanchez on SNF & he'll make plenty of mistakes....plus Baltimore always seems to play well on national tv. We'll see.....still way early in the week & I don't make my plays until game day anyway. Again, thanks for the info/advice :)...Hopefully we can make this thread a little more active.
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MD Buckeye;2000835; said:
I'd look at the under in the SNF game (haven't looked at it, just first blush both QB's are overrated).
The Giants are going to have a let down. I'd be willing to bet on that and that alone, being on the road in a place where weird shit routinely happens only makes it worse.
Chicago @ Carolina...Chicago after losing a rivalry game just bothers me but then again Carolina sucks something fierce. I dunno, I'd probably stay away or bet the over.
I get worse lines but I usually have better luck waiting until gameday myself so tifwiw.
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MD Buckeye
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Went to a Delaware casino yesterday to make some plays. NFL only, parlays & teasers only (minimum of 3 teams).
Parlay 1: Lions +.5, Titans +.5, Chargers -7.5
Parlay 2: Lions +.5, Bengals +3.5, Vikings -1.5, Ravens -3.5
Teaser 1: Lions +10.5, Titans +10.5, Bengals +13.5, Vikings +9.5, Bears +3.5, Chargers +2.5, Buccaneers -1.5
Teaser 2: Lions +6.5, Eagles -1.5, Bears -1.5, Chargers -1.5, Buccaneers -4.5
All small wagers with decent payouts. We shall see
Parlay 1: Lions +.5, Titans +.5, Chargers -7.5
Parlay 2: Lions +.5, Bengals +3.5, Vikings -1.5, Ravens -3.5
Teaser 1: Lions +10.5, Titans +10.5, Bengals +13.5, Vikings +9.5, Bears +3.5, Chargers +2.5, Buccaneers -1.5
Teaser 2: Lions +6.5, Eagles -1.5, Bears -1.5, Chargers -1.5, Buccaneers -4.5
All small wagers with decent payouts. We shall see
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MD Buckeye;2001790; said:
I've been wanting to check that place out, what are the limits and such?
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MD Buckeye
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Jaxbuck;2001958; said:
Here's all the info for Delaware Park http://www.delpark.com/sports_faq.php
You can either play their cards or go off the board. Minimum of 3 teams per play (parlays, teasers & super teasers). Think the minimum bet is $5 per play.
It wasn't bad. Was in & out of there within 45 minutes. Think it would be kinda cool to go up there on a Sunday to watch the games & place some bets. Hopefully you'll be able to place wagers on CFB games next year.
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MD Buckeye
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Plays:
Tennessee -28.5
Cincinnati -15.5
Leans:
Teaser: Boise State -17.5, Baylor & KState Over 55.5, Virginia -6.5
Georgia Tech -10
LA Tech -4.5
Stanford -22
Arizona State -17
Tennessee -28.5
Cincinnati -15.5
Leans:
Teaser: Boise State -17.5, Baylor & KState Over 55.5, Virginia -6.5
Georgia Tech -10
LA Tech -4.5
Stanford -22
Arizona State -17
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MD Buckeye
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Collaros shitting the bed against Miami OH.....a pick on the goal line and now a fumble on the Miami 14.....not to mention they punt the ball on 4th & 1 from the Miami 37 
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MD Buckeye
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Plays:
Tennessee -28.5 (Win)
Cincinnati -15.5 (Win)
Boise State -27.5 (Loss)
Teaser: Stanford -12, Arizona State -7 & Alabama/Florida Under 54
Tennessee -28.5 (Win)
Cincinnati -15.5 (Win)
Boise State -27.5 (Loss)
Teaser: Stanford -12, Arizona State -7 & Alabama/Florida Under 54
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