DSA for the PSU Game
The DSA for the Indiana game seriously underestimated what the Buckeyes are capable of. One reason is the inclusion of numbers from early-season games, numbers that no longer reflect who the Buckeyes are in any meaningful way. A more important reason, in that there is a bigger impact on the numbers, is that elite offenses put up better DSA numbers against better competition. This begs the question of whether Ohio State has a truly elite offense. I don't think we know yet, but they've given us good reason to believe it's likely in my opinion.
Because the early season struggles are clearly aberrations, what follows leaves those numbers out of the calculations.
Ohio State DSA
Differential Offense:
1.57 yards/play (57% more ypp than opponents typically give up)
1.50 yards/game
2.09 points/game (> 2x the points opponents typically give up)
Differential Defense:
0.84 yards/play
0.85 yards/game
0.59 points/game
Penn State DSA
Differential Offense:
1.00 yards/play (perfectly average)
1.02 yards/game
1.08 points/game (slightly above average, a surprise imo)
Differential Defense:
0.84 yards/play (Ohio State is equal since week 2)
0.96 yards/game (Buckeyes are better since week 2)
0.60 points/game (Buckeyes slightly better since week 2)
Based on the above, Penn State's offense is a smidge better than I expected and their defense's superiority over the Buckeye defense is surprisingly questionable.
Having said that, it is possible that Indiana's struggles might be providing a little fool's gold in Ohio State's defensive DSA, and the Penn State offense almost certainly shows some fool's gold in their offensive DSA numbers. I expect those two will cancel out when comparing the teams using DSA. The real question is, can the Penn State defense really stop Ohio State's defense?
Past DSA has shown that the numbers do not work linearly, at least near the top and near the bottom. A team like the Buckeyes will move the ball and get their points up until they come up against a truly elite defense (which Penn State is not). Having said that, here is what DSA says about the game:
DSA "Prediction" for the game including Ohio State's early season struggles:
Ohio State: 26 to 30 points -- 492 to 539 yards
The Cult: 20 points -- 335 to 358 yards
Omitting the early season struggles, Ohio State's point total goes to 33 and Penn State's falls to 14 to 15, while their yardage total falls to 297 to 315.
Based on the non-linear nature of DSA near the top, I would not expect PSU to come anywhere near holding Ohio State to 33 points, and Vegas doesn't think so either.
As for Penn State's offensive output, consider this:
Penn State's Differential Total Offense was 1.59 for their opening game against the Badgers. That is primarily due to the Badgers' early season struggles that they have since corrected; it is more Badger improvement than Lion performance in my opinion. More importantly, Penn State's DTO has decreased in every game since the first:
PSU DTO (FBS games only):
Game 1: 1.59
Game 2: 1.20
Game 3: 1.19
Game 4: 0.95
Game 5: 0.81
Game 6: 0.59
How much that last number had to do with the Nits looking past the Illini is anybody's guess, but the point remains. That is a trend, and it's not a good one. That looks very much like the wheels are coming off of that PSU offense. While their Differential Yards per Play is exactly 1.00 on the season (see above), that was compiled by starting well and deteriorating every single week. One wonders what happens when an offense with the wheels coming off goes up against a defense that is just hitting its stride.
Probably almost as ugly as what's about to happen to that over rated PSU defense.
Ohio State 46
The Cult 16
