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Peach Bowl: #1 Georgia vs #4 tOSU, Sat 12/31 8 ET on ESPN

f we are going to win this game it'll take an unconventional game on our part to get it done.

Defense has to get turnovers, offense has to convert on 3rd down and either score (TD's) in the redzone or score from further out and avoid it all together. I think all of us have seen this the past 4 years, that is the formula for when Day's offense explodes.

That is a hell of a lot easier said than done against a team like UGA so back to the ~30% chance macro point.
 
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Thats exactly what I think. Number for number. If CJ remains immobile it could get even worse for the Bucks. That Georgia kid has minimal talent, but will lay it on the line for his boys when he has too.
Yeah basically... we can make fun of Stetson all we want but the kid does everything he can to win. If that means run for a first down then so be it. That's the kind of performance CJ is going to have to turn in.
 
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30% is quite high. It is higher than TCU's chances to reach the finals. It is at or higher than TTUN's chances of beating us before The Game '21 or '22.

I think OSU does have a better chance than TCU but that aside, I agree that OSU's chances in this game are probably much lower than 30%. I gave that as my best case scenario estimate.

Also: I am adding penalties to the Day formula for success/failure. OSU is 54th in the country this year with 50 penalty yards per game. They just gave up 90 (iirc) against tsun. He absolutely can't afford to be giving the better team a free 50-100 yards in this game.
 
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I think OSU does have a better chance than TCU but that aside, I agree that OSU's chances in this game are probably much lower than 30%. I gave that as my best case scenario estimate.

Also: I am adding penalties to the Day formula for success/failure. OSU is 54th in the country this year with 50 penalty yards per game. They just gave up 90 (iirc) against tsun. He absolutely can't afford to be giving the better team a free 50-100 yards in this game.
I think Michigan is losing their game too.
 
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Also: I am adding penalties to the Day formula for success/failure. OSU is 54th in the country this year with 50 penalty yards per game. They just gave up 90 (iirc) against tsun. He absolutely can't afford to be giving the better team a free 50-100 yards in this game.

So, I was starting to feel some kind of lingering PTSD right around Penn State.... and while I was watching JTT turn into Bobby Boucher (in the best possible way), I was trying to get a sense of what the dread was.... and ironically, I figured out it was Braxton Miller.

Later once I figured out what it was, I went back and looked, and sure enough, we had 8 penalties and like 7 TFL's and 2 Sacks.

Braxton Miller was the the QB of Ohio State, because if you lost track of him for a split second, it was 70 yards to the house. He also had limitations. Those limitations were exposed if we got behind the chains, and Braxton gave up a LOT of negative plays. (Kenny Guiton? Hardly any, but no 70 yards to the house, or not often he did have a couple nice runs)

Where we are here is, too many negative or no gain plays (why do people hate the bubble screens? This is part of it) Can they score in bunches? For sure. But there's too much double digit down and distance, and beyond that the play calling doesn't seem to acknowledge this for some reason. I mean, to be fucking honest, if they pounded it twice and let CJ pick up 3rd and 4 a bunch, he would probably have some ridiculous conversion rate, if they have to go 3rd and 10+ against georgia's D, its going to suck.
 
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So, I was starting to feel some kind of lingering PTSD right around Penn State.... and while I was watching JTT turn into Bobby Boucher (in the best possible way), I was trying to get a sense of what the dread was.... and ironically, I figured out it was Braxton Miller.

Later once I figured out what it was, I went back and looked, and sure enough, we had 8 penalties and like 7 TFL's and 2 Sacks.

Braxton Miller was the the QB of Ohio State, because if you lost track of him for a split second, it was 70 yards to the house. He also had limitations. Those limitations were exposed if we got behind the chains, and Braxton gave up a LOT of negative plays. (Kenny Guiton? Hardly any, but no 70 yards to the house, or not often he did have a couple nice runs)

Where we are here is, too many negative or no gain plays (why do people hate the bubble screens? This is part of it) Can they score in bunches? For sure. But there's too much double digit down and distance, and beyond that the play calling doesn't seem to acknowledge this for some reason. I mean, to be fucking honest, if they pounded it twice and let CJ pick up 3rd and 4 a bunch, he would probably have some ridiculous conversion rate, if they have to go 3rd and 10+ against georgia's D, its going to suck.

I think the hate for bubble screens is more about how often they are called even though this years team has shown a complete lack of desire/ability to block them properly.

This is one of the things that really scares me as a trend. I just can't process WR's and TE's who can't/won't block after 7 years of Meyer.
 
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I think the hate for bubble screens is more about how often they are called even though this years team has shown a complete lack of desire/ability to block them properly.

This is one of the things that really scares me as a trend. I just can't process WR's and TE's who can't/won't block after 7 years of Meyer.
And Hartline should field some blame for that as well as coach Day for not demanding that standard.

As controversial as Zach Smith is his WRs always blocked well.
 
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I think the hate for bubble screens is more about how often they are called even though this years team has shown a complete lack of desire/ability to block them properly.

This is one of the things that really scares me as a trend. I just can't process WR's and TE's who can't/won't block after 7 years of Meyer.

Yeah, I mean, I get that, but when everyone knows its coming, there's more than one guy to block... and if the ball is late or the receiver has to adjust, then the multiple guys are on you and the block one guy beat the other guy gets dicey. We just throw a lot of shit behind the LOS and if you're not fooling anyone doing it... you're gonna get negative plays.
 
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And Hartline should field some blame for that as well as coach Day for not demanding that standard.

As controversial as Zach Smith is his WRs always blocked well.

Which, to me, goes back to the overall culture of the program not a Zach Smith thing. Meyer demanded a certain element of physical toughness from all players and position groups that I don't know is still there.
 
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I think the hate for bubble screens is more about how often they are called even though this years team has shown a complete lack of desire/ability to block them properly.

This is one of the things that really scares me as a trend. I just can't process WR's and TE's who can't/won't block after 7 years of Meyer.

Day continuing to constantly call them even though theyve proven over and over not to work is the "scary thing" i'd say. It's just a sign of bad coaching to constantly keep attempting to shove square blocks into circle holes.
 
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Yeah, I mean, I get that, but when everyone knows its coming, there's more than one guy to block... and if the ball is late or the receiver has to adjust, then the multiple guys are on you and the block one guy beat the other guy gets dicey. We just throw a lot of shit behind the LOS and if you're not fooling anyone doing it... you're gonna get negative plays.

Day continuing to constantly call them even though theyve proven over and over not to work is the "scary thing" i'd say. It's just a sign of bad coaching to constantly keep attempting to shove square blocks into circle holes.

totally agree with the play calling part of the equation being a massive problem and an example of Day's stubbornness as a play caller. It's been discussed many times even before this last loss in The Game.
 
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totally agree with the play calling part of the equation being a massive problem and an example of Day's stubbornness as a play caller. It's been discussed many times even before this last loss in The Game.

Yep. I'd be VERY surprised if we don't see the exact same stubbornness in this UGA game. Day doesn't seem like he's suddenly going to change his strategy for one game.

My TV might not survive the game after a few WR screens on 1st down for negative or no yardage.
 
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