Ohio State v. Michigan - A Significant Gap

[Buckeye513]

The crazy thing is, Hairball was probably their best hope for a long time. They can hold on to him for as long as he's willing to stay, and pray he keeps passing on NFL gigs

I think they'd be fine if they brought in a Paul Chryst clone for 1/4 the cost and stopped trying to recruit like Ohio State.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

Jordan Glasgow and Joe Beneducci with the Blutarsky rating



how the fuck do you get a zero?

I think they were walk on players that were awarded scholarships last season. In any event, the did not have a 247 rating.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

@LordJeffBuck Those charts turned out very pretty indeed! Thanks! Loved the additional analysis as well.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I think they were walk on players that were awarded scholarships last season. In any event, the did not have a 247 rating.

still, they have a rating as high as I do

seriously

 

[sparcboxbuck]

I have taken BKB's data and put it all into a pretty chart:

No.	Player	Position	247 Composite
1	Rashan Gary	DL	1.0000
2	Shea Patterson	QB	0.9982
3	Nick Bosa	DL	0.9965
4	Nicholas Petit-Frere	OL	0.9963
5	Chase Young	DL	0.9957
6	Jeffrey Okudah	DB	0.9955
7	Baron Browning	LB	0.9940
8	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	0.9925
9	Shaun Wade	DB	0.9904
10	Taron Vincent	DL	0.9884
11	Aubrey Solomon	DL	0.9879
12	Wyatt Davis	OL	0.9876
12	Tyreke Johnson	DB	0.9876
14	Justin Hilliard	LB	0.9851
15	Jaelen Gill	RB	0.9831
16	Tyreke Smith	DL	0.9816
17	Jonathon Cooper	DL	0.9811
18	Jeremy Ruckert	TE	0.9810
19	Ben Bredeson	OL	0.9799
20	J.K. Dobbins	RB	0.9791
21	Cesar Ruiz	OL	0.9786
22	Teradja Mitchell	LB	0.9771
23	Demario McCall	RB	0.9767
24	Josh Myers	OL	0.9757
25	Dante Booker	LB	0.9743
26	Tate Martell	QB	0.9739
27	Luiji Vilain	DL	0.9734
28	Tommy Togiai	DL	0.9721
29	Isaiah Pryor	DB	0.9712
30	Brandon Peters	QB	0.9684
31	Haskell Garrett	DL	0.9678
32	David Long	DB	0.9675
33	Matthew Jones	OL	0.9652
34	Austin Mack	WR	0.9649
35	Johnnie Dixon	WR	0.9644
36	Josh Proctor	DB	0.9640
37	Kamryn Babb	WR	0.9629
38	Mike Weber	RB	0.9627
39	Drew Singleton	LB	0.9626
40	Brian Snead	RB	0.9607
41	Ambry Thomas	DB	0.9583
42	Michael Onwenu	OL	0.9571
43	Jashon Cornell	DL	0.9563
44	Dwayne Haskins	QB	0.9561
45	Tyler Friday	DL	0.9560
46	Demetrius Knox	OL	0.9547
47	Binjimen Victor	WR	0.9546
48	Keandre Jones	LB	0.9544
49	Isaiah Prince	OL	0.9533
50	Jordan Anthony	LB	0.9510
51	Matthew Burrell	OL	0.9509
52	Aidan Hutchinson	DL	0.9498
53	Cameron McGrone	LB	0.9481
54	Chuck Filiaga	OL	0.9475
55	Max Wray	OL	0.9473
56	Kekoa Crawford	WR	0.9455
57	L'Christian Smith	WR	0.9454
57	Tarik Black	WR	0.9454
59	Bryan Mone	DL	0.9450
60	Jake Hausmann	TE	0.9439
61	Kendall Sheffield	DB	0.9438
62	Dylan McCaffrey	QB	0.9435
63	Brendon White	DB	0.9421
64	Michael Jordan	OL	0.9411
65	Dre'Mont Jones	DL	0.9410
66	Lavert Hill	DB	0.9409
67	Jordan Fuller	DB	0.9403
68	Parris Campbell	WR	0.9389
69	Nico Collins	WR	0.9378
70	K.J. Hill	WR	0.9330
71	Malcolm Pridgeon	OL	0.9329
72	Dallas Gant	LB	0.9322
73	Mustapha Muhammad	TE	0.9318
74	Myles Sims	DB	0.9312
75	Antwuan Jackson	DL	0.9290
76	Antonio Williams	RB	0.9286
77	Lawrence Marshall	DL	0.9270
78	Jaylen Harris	WR	0.9254
79	Oliver Martin	WR	0.9251
80	Marcus Williamson	DB	0.9250
81	Zach Gentry	TE	0.9248
82	Amir Riep	DB	0.9243
83	Luke Farrell	TE	0.9233
84	Tyree Kinnel	DB	0.9212
85	Joe Milton	QB	0.9202
86	Josh Ross	LB	0.9184
87	K'Vaughan Pope	LB	0.9170
88	Javontae Jean-Baptiste	DL	0.9168
89	Sevyn Banks	DB	0.9166
90	Master Teague	RB	0.9132
91	Grant Newsome	OL	0.9129
92	James Hudson	OL	0.9121
93	Nick Conner	LB	0.9116
94	Jerron Cage	DL	0.9105
95	Deron Irving-Bey	DL	0.9072
96	Jaylen Kelly-Powell	DB	0.9071
97	Jalen Mayfield	OL	0.9062
98	Terry McLaurin	WR	0.9051
99	O'Maury Samuels	RB	0.9025
100	Joe Burrow	QB	0.9003
100	Ron Johnson	DL	0.9003
102	Pete Werner	LB	0.8994
103	Malik Barrow	DL	0.8990
104	Thayer Munford	OL	0.8985
105	Donovan Jeter	DL	0.8971
105	Cameron Brown	WR	0.8971
107	Ryan Hayes	OL	0.8958
107	Matthew Baldwin	QB	0.8958
109	Carlo Kemp	DL	0.8954
110	Tyrone Wheatley, Jr.	TE	0.8953
111	Devin Bush	LB	0.8951
112	Chase Winovich	DL	0.8937
112	Ian Bunting	TE	0.8937
114	Tuf Borland	LB	0.8933
115	Wayne Davis	DB	0.8912
116	Chris Evans	RB	0.8911
116	Juwann Bushell-Beatty	OL	0.8911
118	Benjamin St-Juste	DB	0.8902
119	Nick Eubanks	TE	0.8893
120	Gemon Green	DB	0.8891
121	Chris Olave	WR	0.8875
122	Andrew Stueber	OL	0.8860
123	J'Marick Woods	DB	0.8838
124	Eddie McDoom	WR	0.8825
125	Khaleke Hudson	LB	0.8819
126	Gavin Cupp	OL	0.8791
127	Christian Turner	RB	0.8784
128	Brad Hawkins	DB	0.8783
129	Joel Honigford	OL	0.8761
130	Taylor Upshaw	DL	0.8742
131	Sammy Faustin	DB	0.8729
132	Phillip Paea	DL	0.8721
133	Robert Landers	DL	0.8719
134	Karan Higdon	RB	0.8715
135	Alex Williams	DL	0.8713
136	Ben VanSumeren	TE	0.8709
137	Elysee Mbem-Bosse	LB	0.8701
137	Marcus Hooker	DB	0.8701
139	Kwity Paye	DL	0.8696
140	Julius Welschof	DL	0.8694
141	Vincent Gray	DB	0.8667
142	Noah Furbush	LB	0.8666
142	Branden Bowen	OL	0.8666
144	Joshua Alabi	OL	0.8655
145	Michael Barrett	RB	0.8635
146	Brady Taylor	OL	0.8618
147	Luke Schoonmaker	TE	0.8614
148	Damon Arnette	DB	0.8596
149	Rashod Berry	TE	0.8568
149	Malik Harrison	LB	0.8568
151	Quinn Nordin	SP	0.8563
152	Josh Uche	LB	0.8558
153	Stephen Spanellis	OL	0.8543
154	Josh Metellus	DB	0.8540
155	Reuben Jones	DL	0.8539
155	Hassan Haskins	RB	0.8539
157	Drue Chrisman	SP	0.8529
158	Elijah Gardiner	WR	0.8518
159	Brandon Watson	DB	0.8512
160	Ben Mason	FB	0.8510
161	Jared Wangler	FB	0.8508
162	Grant Perry	WR	0.8503
163	Sean McKeon	TE	0.8493
164	Jahsen Wint	DB	0.8485
165	Kurt Taylor	RB	0.8472
166	Davon Hamilton	DL	0.8457
167	Michael Dwumfour	DL	0.8453
168	Devin Gil	LB	0.8428
169	Jon Runyan	OL	0.8402
170	Ronnie Bell	WR	0.8349
171	Nolan Ulizio	OL	0.8342
172	Blake Haubeil	SP	0.8321
173	Sean Nuernberger	SP	0.8296
174	Liam McCullough	SP	0.7828
175	Brad Robbins	SP	0.7591
176	Jordan Glasgow	DB	0.0000
177	Joe Beneducci	FB	0.0000

A quick glance at the chart should tell you all you need to know: Lots of scarlet at the top and lots of blue at the bottom.

Michigan has the top two players in the chart, but one of them (Shea Patterson) was not a recruit but rather a transfer and he does not properly belong in a discussion on the two programs' relative success at recruiting. But I'll leave Patterson in the mix because the Wolverines need all the help they can get.

Here are the top 50 recruits broken down into groups of ten:

01-10: Ohio State 7, Michigan 3
11-20: Ohio State 8, Michigan 2
21-30: Ohio State 7, Michigan 3
31-40: Ohio State 8, Michigan 2
41-50: Ohio State 7, Michigan 3

So Ohio State has 37 of the top 50 recruits (74%), while Michigan has only 13 (26%). It is very difficult to beat a team when your opponent has three times as many top end recruits as you do, and that is exactly the position in which Michigan finds itself. In football terms, Ohio State can field an entire team of 22 players, plus 15 reserves, from top-50 recruits, while Michigan can barely field a single unit (offense or defense) from top-50 recruits.

Things get a little bit better for Michigan in the second 50 recruits:

51--60: Michigan 6, Ohio State 4
61--70: Ohio State 7, Michigan 3
71--80: Ohio State 6, Michigan 4
81--90: Ohio State 6, Michigan 4
91-100: Michigan 7, Ohio State 4 (not a typo: 2 recruits were tied for #100)

In the second group of 50 recruits, Ohio State still holds a slight edge, 27 to 24, or 53% to 47%. Among the top-100 recruits (actually 101), Ohio State has 64 while Michigan has only 37. Note that Ohio State has as many top-50 recruits (37) as Michigan has top-100 recruits.

Michigan owns the rest of the chart, which is not a good thing. Of the bottom 76 recruits, 51 (67%) signed with Michigan, while only 25 (33%) signed with Ohio State. Note that Ohio State's last three recruits, and four of their last seven, are specialists (place kickers, punters, long snappers). Ohio State has only three position players in the group from 151-177, while Michigan has eighteen. That's right - the Wolverines have six times as many position players at the very bottom of the list as Ohio State.

Ohio State has 89 players on the chart, while Michigan has 88 players (I removed Kareem Walker from BKB's list, because he was dismissed from Michigan). Here's how the two teams compare by percentage of players in the top-50, second-50, and bottom-76:

Program	Top-50	2nd-50	Bottom-76
Ohio State Buckeyes	37/89 (41.6%)	27/89 (30.3%)	25/89 (28.1%)
Michigan Wolverines	13/88 (14.8%)	24/88 (27.3%)	51/88 (58.0%)

Here's another way to look at this: Each team has roughly the same number of recruits on its current roster (89 for Ohio State, 88 for Michigan). The midpoint recruit for each team is its #44 recruit. Ohio State's #44 recruit is Michael Jordan, who places at #64 overall (36th percentile). Michigan's #44 recruit is Ian Bunting, who places at #112 overall (63rd percentile).

Any way you look at it, Ohio State is simply killing Michigan on the recruiting trail.

I will eventually post breakdown by position group when I get around to it (probably a few days).

Was Walker dismissed? Last I saw on S&M it looked like he didn’t get booted. Meh, probably on his way out the door anyhow...

 

[jwinslow]

It was rumored that he was dismissed (for his 4th team rules violation in 2 years), but his HS took to twitter to refute this. So who knows, but the real problem is he still isn't good at running the football.

 

[LordJeffBuck]

Some further analysis (with pretty charts).

Comparing each team's 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 50th, and 60th best recruits (using 247 Composite scores x100):

Recruit No.	Ohio State	Michigan	Difference
10	98.51	96.26	2.25
20	97.39	94.35	3.04
30	96.07	91.84	4.23
40	94.54	89.54	5.00
50	93.22	88.60	4.62
60	91.32	87.15	4.17

Comparing each team's recruits in groups of ten, with the final group containing 15 recruits for Ohio State and 14 recruits for Michigan. I have not counted Ohio State's four specialists nor Michigan's two specialist and two walk-on (non-rated) recruits. For each group, I have used the average 247 Composite scores x100.

Recruit Group	Ohio State	Michigan	Difference
01-10	99.17	98.09	1.08
11-20	97.84	94.91	2.93
21-30	96.56	92.78	3.78
31-40	95.29	90.37	4.92
41-50	93.89	89.15	4.74
51-60	92.19	87.72	4.47
61-70	90.11	86.48	3.63
71 +	86.58	84.71	1.86
TOTAL	93.52	90.70	2.82

Ohio State's average recruit (93.52) would be Michigan's #23 actual recruit, just behind Nico Collins (93.78). Michigan's average recruit (90.70) would be Ohio State's #63 actual recruit, just ahead of Terry McLaurin (90.51).

Ohio State's highs are higher than Michigan's, and Michigan's lows are lower than Ohio State's. But the greatest difference is in the middle, roughly recruits 31-60 (and especially 31-40), which is where teams will get the depth necessary to allow for rotations and overcome injuries. Michigan can certainly field a starting 22 similar in talent to Ohio State, but when Michigan loses a player to injury (Tarik Black in 2017) they can't replace him. Also look how Michigan finished games against their toughest opponents last year (Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin) - they were gassed due to lack of depth and so they quit.

Good teams have a few great players. Great teams have a few great players and tons of depth. Championship teams have lots of great players and tons of depth. Michigan has a long way to go to get from "good team" to "championship contender". Ohio State is already there and has been ever since Urban Meyer arrived in Columbus.

 

[pnuts34]

Some further analysis (with pretty charts).

Comparing each team's 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 50th, and 60th best recruits (using 247 Composite scores x100):

Recruit No.	Ohio State	Michigan	Difference
10	98.51	96.26	2.25
20	97.39	94.35	3.04
30	96.07	91.84	4.23
40	94.54	89.54	5.00
50	93.22	88.60	4.62
60	91.32	87.15	4.17

Comparing each team's recruits in groups of ten, with the final group containing 15 recruits for Ohio State and 14 recruits for Michigan. I have not counted Ohio State's four specialists nor Michigan's two specialist and two walk-on (non-rated) recruits. For each group, I have used the average 247 Composite scores x100.

Recruit Group	Ohio State	Michigan	Difference
01-10	99.17	98.09	1.08
11-20	97.84	94.91	2.93
21-30	96.56	92.78	3.78
31-40	95.29	90.37	4.92
41-50	93.89	89.15	4.74
51-60	92.19	87.72	4.47
61-70	90.11	86.48	3.63
71 +	86.58	84.71	1.86
TOTAL	93.52	90.70	2.82

Ohio State's average recruit (93.52) would be Michigan's #23 actual recruit, just behind Nico Collins (93.78). Michigan's average recruit (90.70) would be Ohio State's #63 actual recruit, just ahead of Terry McLaurin (90.51).

Ohio State's highs are higher than Michigan's, and Michigan's lows are lower than Ohio State's. But the greatest difference is in the middle, roughly recruits 31-60 (and especially 31-40), which is where teams will get the depth necessary to allow for rotations and overcome injuries. Michigan can certainly field a starting 22 similar in talent to Ohio State, but when Michigan loses a player to injury (Tarik Black in 2017) they can't replace him. Also look how Michigan finished games against their toughest opponents last year (Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin) - they were gassed due to lack of depth and so they quit.

Good teams have a few great players. Great teams have a few great players and tons of depth. Championship teams have lots of great players and tons of depth. Michigan has a long way to go to get from "good team" to "championship contender". Ohio State is already there and has been ever since Urban Meyer arrived in Columbus.

Great analysis! Deeply shows why scUM is failing on the field, and the talent gap doesn't look to be closing anytime soon

 

[CFPBuckeye]

@Everyone,

 

[pnuts34]

@Everyone,

I don't think the DFBIA would take our analysis seriously anyway. Hairball doesn't recruit for stars, because they don't matter...

 

[CFPBuckeye]

I don't think the DFBIA would take our analysis seriously anyway. Hairball doesn't recruit for stars, because they don't matter...

But the noise from everywhere else outside of DFBIAville could eventually get noticed. This isn’t a BP exclusive. It’s pretty basic fact that we need to go swept under the rug for as long as gloriously possible.

Harbaugh is great! Wins for the win! Eleventy championships on the horizon!

Just wait. You’ll see.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

I don't think the DFBIA would take our analysis seriously anyway. Hairball doesn't recruit for stars, because they don't matter...

Hey they put up with "speed is overrated" why wouldn't they buy some other nonsense

 

[JCOSU86]

BKB is GatorUbet

I warmed up for reading this by reading War and Peace.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

I warmed up for reading this by reading War and Peace.

Still ruining the internet, I see.

 

[BigJim]

Where's that chart that someone used to post in I think the ttun news thread, plotted scUM vs OSU active rosters by recruiting ranking? It basically summarizes this thread in one chart.