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Ohio State v. Michigan - A Significant Gap

I have taken BKB's data and put it all into a pretty chart:

No.PlayerPosition247 Composite
1Rashan GaryDL1.0000
2Shea PattersonQB0.9982
3Nick BosaDL0.9965
4Nicholas Petit-FrereOL0.9963
5Chase YoungDL0.9957
6Jeffrey OkudahDB0.9955
7Baron BrowningLB0.9940
8Donovan Peoples-JonesWR0.9925
9Shaun WadeDB0.9904
10Taron VincentDL0.9884
11Aubrey SolomonDL0.9879
12Wyatt DavisOL0.9876
12Tyreke JohnsonDB0.9876
14Justin HilliardLB0.9851
15Jaelen GillRB0.9831
16Tyreke SmithDL0.9816
17Jonathon CooperDL0.9811
18Jeremy RuckertTE0.9810
19Ben BredesonOL0.9799
20J.K. DobbinsRB0.9791
21Cesar RuizOL0.9786
22Teradja MitchellLB0.9771
23Demario McCallRB0.9767
24Josh MyersOL0.9757
25Dante BookerLB0.9743
26Tate MartellQB0.9739
27Luiji VilainDL0.9734
28Tommy TogiaiDL0.9721
29Isaiah PryorDB0.9712
30Brandon PetersQB0.9684
31Haskell GarrettDL0.9678
32David LongDB0.9675
33Matthew JonesOL0.9652
34Austin MackWR0.9649
35Johnnie DixonWR0.9644
36Josh ProctorDB0.9640
37Kamryn BabbWR0.9629
38Mike WeberRB0.9627
39Drew SingletonLB0.9626
40Brian SneadRB0.9607
41Ambry ThomasDB0.9583
42Michael OnwenuOL0.9571
43Jashon CornellDL0.9563
44Dwayne HaskinsQB0.9561
45Tyler FridayDL0.9560
46Demetrius KnoxOL0.9547
47Binjimen VictorWR0.9546
48Keandre JonesLB0.9544
49Isaiah PrinceOL0.9533
50Jordan AnthonyLB0.9510
51Matthew BurrellOL0.9509
52Aidan HutchinsonDL0.9498
53Cameron McGroneLB0.9481
54Chuck FiliagaOL0.9475
55Max WrayOL0.9473
56Kekoa CrawfordWR0.9455
57L'Christian SmithWR0.9454
57Tarik BlackWR0.9454
59Bryan MoneDL0.9450
60Jake HausmannTE0.9439
61Kendall SheffieldDB0.9438
62Dylan McCaffreyQB0.9435
63Brendon WhiteDB0.9421
64Michael JordanOL0.9411
65Dre'Mont JonesDL0.9410
66Lavert HillDB0.9409
67Jordan FullerDB0.9403
68Parris CampbellWR0.9389
69Nico CollinsWR0.9378
70K.J. HillWR0.9330
71Malcolm PridgeonOL0.9329
72Dallas GantLB0.9322
73Mustapha MuhammadTE0.9318
74Myles SimsDB0.9312
75Antwuan JacksonDL0.9290
76Antonio WilliamsRB0.9286
77Lawrence MarshallDL0.9270
78Jaylen HarrisWR0.9254
79Oliver MartinWR0.9251
80Marcus WilliamsonDB0.9250
81Zach GentryTE0.9248
82Amir RiepDB0.9243
83Luke FarrellTE0.9233
84Tyree KinnelDB0.9212
85Joe MiltonQB0.9202
86Josh RossLB0.9184
87K'Vaughan PopeLB0.9170
88Javontae Jean-BaptisteDL0.9168
89Sevyn BanksDB0.9166
90Master TeagueRB0.9132
91Grant NewsomeOL0.9129
92James HudsonOL0.9121
93Nick ConnerLB0.9116
94Jerron CageDL0.9105
95Deron Irving-BeyDL0.9072
96Jaylen Kelly-PowellDB0.9071
97Jalen MayfieldOL0.9062
98Terry McLaurinWR0.9051
99O'Maury SamuelsRB0.9025
100Joe BurrowQB0.9003
100Ron JohnsonDL0.9003
102Pete WernerLB0.8994
103Malik BarrowDL0.8990
104Thayer MunfordOL0.8985
105Donovan JeterDL0.8971
105Cameron BrownWR0.8971
107Ryan HayesOL0.8958
107Matthew BaldwinQB0.8958
109Carlo KempDL0.8954
110Tyrone Wheatley, Jr.TE0.8953
111Devin BushLB0.8951
112Chase WinovichDL0.8937
112Ian BuntingTE0.8937
114Tuf BorlandLB0.8933
115Wayne DavisDB0.8912
116Chris EvansRB0.8911
116Juwann Bushell-BeattyOL0.8911
118Benjamin St-JusteDB0.8902
119Nick EubanksTE0.8893
120Gemon GreenDB0.8891
121Chris OlaveWR0.8875
122Andrew StueberOL0.8860
123J'Marick WoodsDB0.8838
124Eddie McDoomWR0.8825
125Khaleke HudsonLB0.8819
126Gavin CuppOL0.8791
127Christian TurnerRB0.8784
128Brad HawkinsDB0.8783
129Joel HonigfordOL0.8761
130Taylor UpshawDL0.8742
131Sammy FaustinDB0.8729
132Phillip PaeaDL0.8721
133Robert LandersDL0.8719
134Karan HigdonRB0.8715
135Alex WilliamsDL0.8713
136Ben VanSumerenTE0.8709
137Elysee Mbem-BosseLB0.8701
137Marcus HookerDB0.8701
139Kwity PayeDL0.8696
140Julius WelschofDL0.8694
141Vincent GrayDB0.8667
142Noah FurbushLB0.8666
142Branden BowenOL0.8666
144Joshua AlabiOL0.8655
145Michael BarrettRB0.8635
146Brady TaylorOL0.8618
147Luke SchoonmakerTE0.8614
148Damon ArnetteDB0.8596
149Rashod BerryTE0.8568
149Malik HarrisonLB0.8568
151Quinn NordinSP0.8563
152Josh UcheLB0.8558
153Stephen SpanellisOL0.8543
154Josh MetellusDB0.8540
155Reuben JonesDL0.8539
155Hassan HaskinsRB0.8539
157Drue ChrismanSP0.8529
158Elijah GardinerWR0.8518
159Brandon WatsonDB0.8512
160Ben MasonFB0.8510
161Jared WanglerFB0.8508
162Grant PerryWR0.8503
163Sean McKeonTE0.8493
164Jahsen WintDB0.8485
165Kurt TaylorRB0.8472
166Davon HamiltonDL0.8457
167Michael DwumfourDL0.8453
168Devin GilLB0.8428
169Jon RunyanOL0.8402
170Ronnie BellWR0.8349
171Nolan UlizioOL0.8342
172Blake HaubeilSP0.8321
173Sean NuernbergerSP0.8296
174Liam McCulloughSP0.7828
175Brad RobbinsSP0.7591
176Jordan GlasgowDB0.0000
177Joe BeneducciFB0.0000
A quick glance at the chart should tell you all you need to know: Lots of scarlet at the top and lots of blue at the bottom.

Michigan has the top two players in the chart, but one of them (Shea Patterson) was not a recruit but rather a transfer and he does not properly belong in a discussion on the two programs' relative success at recruiting. But I'll leave Patterson in the mix because the Wolverines need all the help they can get.

Here are the top 50 recruits broken down into groups of ten:

01-10: Ohio State 7, Michigan 3
11-20: Ohio State 8, Michigan 2
21-30: Ohio State 7, Michigan 3
31-40: Ohio State 8, Michigan 2
41-50: Ohio State 7, Michigan 3

So Ohio State has 37 of the top 50 recruits (74%), while Michigan has only 13 (26%). It is very difficult to beat a team when your opponent has three times as many top end recruits as you do, and that is exactly the position in which Michigan finds itself. In football terms, Ohio State can field an entire team of 22 players, plus 15 reserves, from top-50 recruits, while Michigan can barely field a single unit (offense or defense) from top-50 recruits.

Things get a little bit better for Michigan in the second 50 recruits:

51--60: Michigan 6, Ohio State 4
61--70: Ohio State 7, Michigan 3
71--80: Ohio State 6, Michigan 4
81--90: Ohio State 6, Michigan 4
91-100: Michigan 7, Ohio State 4 (not a typo: 2 recruits were tied for #100)

In the second group of 50 recruits, Ohio State still holds a slight edge, 27 to 24, or 53% to 47%. Among the top-100 recruits (actually 101), Ohio State has 64 while Michigan has only 37. Note that Ohio State has as many top-50 recruits (37) as Michigan has top-100 recruits.

Michigan owns the rest of the chart, which is not a good thing. Of the bottom 76 recruits, 51 (67%) signed with Michigan, while only 25 (33%) signed with Ohio State. Note that Ohio State's last three recruits, and four of their last seven, are specialists (place kickers, punters, long snappers). Ohio State has only three position players in the group from 151-177, while Michigan has eighteen. That's right - the Wolverines have six times as many position players at the very bottom of the list as Ohio State.

Ohio State has 89 players on the chart, while Michigan has 88 players (I removed Kareem Walker from BKB's list, because he was dismissed from Michigan). Here's how the two teams compare by percentage of players in the top-50, second-50, and bottom-76:

ProgramTop-502nd-50Bottom-76
Ohio State Buckeyes37/89 (41.6%)27/89 (30.3%)25/89 (28.1%)
Michigan Wolverines13/88 (14.8%)24/88 (27.3%)51/88 (58.0%)
Here's another way to look at this: Each team has roughly the same number of recruits on its current roster (89 for Ohio State, 88 for Michigan). The midpoint recruit for each team is its #44 recruit. Ohio State's #44 recruit is Michael Jordan, who places at #64 overall (36th percentile). Michigan's #44 recruit is Ian Bunting, who places at #112 overall (63rd percentile).

Any way you look at it, Ohio State is simply killing Michigan on the recruiting trail.

I will eventually post breakdown by position group when I get around to it (probably a few days).

Was Walker dismissed? Last I saw on S&M it looked like he didn’t get booted. Meh, probably on his way out the door anyhow...
 
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Some further analysis (with pretty charts).

Comparing each team's 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 50th, and 60th best recruits (using 247 Composite scores x100):

Recruit No.Ohio StateMichiganDifference
1098.5196.262.25
2097.3994.353.04
3096.0791.844.23
4094.5489.545.00
5093.2288.604.62
6091.3287.154.17
Comparing each team's recruits in groups of ten, with the final group containing 15 recruits for Ohio State and 14 recruits for Michigan. I have not counted Ohio State's four specialists nor Michigan's two specialist and two walk-on (non-rated) recruits. For each group, I have used the average 247 Composite scores x100.

Recruit GroupOhio StateMichiganDifference
01-1099.1798.091.08
11-2097.8494.912.93
21-3096.5692.783.78
31-4095.2990.374.92
41-5093.8989.154.74
51-6092.1987.724.47
61-7090.1186.483.63
71 +86.5884.711.86
TOTAL93.5290.702.82
Ohio State's average recruit (93.52) would be Michigan's #23 actual recruit, just behind Nico Collins (93.78). Michigan's average recruit (90.70) would be Ohio State's #63 actual recruit, just ahead of Terry McLaurin (90.51).

Ohio State's highs are higher than Michigan's, and Michigan's lows are lower than Ohio State's. But the greatest difference is in the middle, roughly recruits 31-60 (and especially 31-40), which is where teams will get the depth necessary to allow for rotations and overcome injuries. Michigan can certainly field a starting 22 similar in talent to Ohio State, but when Michigan loses a player to injury (Tarik Black in 2017) they can't replace him. Also look how Michigan finished games against their toughest opponents last year (Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin) - they were gassed due to lack of depth and so they quit.

Good teams have a few great players. Great teams have a few great players and tons of depth. Championship teams have lots of great players and tons of depth. Michigan has a long way to go to get from "good team" to "championship contender". Ohio State is already there and has been ever since Urban Meyer arrived in Columbus.
 
Upvote 0
Some further analysis (with pretty charts).

Comparing each team's 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 50th, and 60th best recruits (using 247 Composite scores x100):

Recruit No.Ohio StateMichiganDifference
1098.5196.262.25
2097.3994.353.04
3096.0791.844.23
4094.5489.545.00
5093.2288.604.62
6091.3287.154.17
Comparing each team's recruits in groups of ten, with the final group containing 15 recruits for Ohio State and 14 recruits for Michigan. I have not counted Ohio State's four specialists nor Michigan's two specialist and two walk-on (non-rated) recruits. For each group, I have used the average 247 Composite scores x100.

Recruit GroupOhio StateMichiganDifference
01-1099.1798.091.08
11-2097.8494.912.93
21-3096.5692.783.78
31-4095.2990.374.92
41-5093.8989.154.74
51-6092.1987.724.47
61-7090.1186.483.63
71 +86.5884.711.86
TOTAL93.5290.702.82
Ohio State's average recruit (93.52) would be Michigan's #23 actual recruit, just behind Nico Collins (93.78). Michigan's average recruit (90.70) would be Ohio State's #63 actual recruit, just ahead of Terry McLaurin (90.51).

Ohio State's highs are higher than Michigan's, and Michigan's lows are lower than Ohio State's. But the greatest difference is in the middle, roughly recruits 31-60 (and especially 31-40), which is where teams will get the depth necessary to allow for rotations and overcome injuries. Michigan can certainly field a starting 22 similar in talent to Ohio State, but when Michigan loses a player to injury (Tarik Black in 2017) they can't replace him. Also look how Michigan finished games against their toughest opponents last year (Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin) - they were gassed due to lack of depth and so they quit.

Good teams have a few great players. Great teams have a few great players and tons of depth. Championship teams have lots of great players and tons of depth. Michigan has a long way to go to get from "good team" to "championship contender". Ohio State is already there and has been ever since Urban Meyer arrived in Columbus.
Great analysis! Deeply shows why scUM is failing on the field, and the talent gap doesn't look to be closing anytime soon
o-CHEERS-LEONARDO-DICAPRIO-570.jpg
 
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@Everyone,

Shhhhh-Hahaha-Nice.1357671098-van-michouvandonk-e1359501395134.jpeg
 
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I don't think the DFBIA would take our analysis seriously anyway. Hairball doesn't recruit for stars, because they don't matter... :confused:

But the noise from everywhere else outside of DFBIAville could eventually get noticed. This isn’t a BP exclusive. It’s pretty basic fact that we need to go swept under the rug for as long as gloriously possible.

Harbaugh is great! Wins for the win! Eleventy championships on the horizon!

Just wait. You’ll see.
 
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