Game Thread Ohio State 3, Southern Cal 35 (Sept. 13)

[OregonBuckeye]

I was planning on going to this game in September, but if you're going to be at the Rose Bowl that day, you probably won't see me.

How about a sig bet for you guys? (since O-B is vBroke) If the opening line is more than 7, Mili wins, if it's less than 7, Oregon wins. If it's 7 even, it's a wash.

If you both agree, I'd establish a certain service to be the official line for the bet when it comes out.

I'm game.

 

[buckeyemania11]

does it really matter what the line is?

the betting line does not decide the outcome of the game

 

[OHSportsFan]

but the game is 6 months away, what are we going to do now? :p

 

[shetuck]

does it really matter what the line is?

the betting line does not decide the outcome of the game

No, it doesn't. But it's *supposed* to be a pretty good prediction of it...

 

[BuckeyeSoldier]

you are all wrong... the bookies dont give a rats ass what anyone did against anyone else... and most of you know this so im not sure why the arguement. the line will be set based on what the betters of america think and where the bookies can guarantee they dont lose money.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Did our current defense play scUM in November 2006, Florida in January 2007, or LSU in January 2008?

Uh, seeing as we have 10 starters returning on defense (your own words), I'd say that yeah, the current defense did play LSU in Jan '08.

Of course not. Just saying they're not exactly Nostradamus either.

I didn't say they were. Even the best of bookies miss some. But for the most part, they're scary good.

You haven't actually backed up your argument that experience doesn't matter. You keep saying the "same" defense.

Experience helps, but it's not the end-all like you imply. Plus, it's what the "experience" is that counts. Had we blew out LSU and dominted them defensively, that experience would be a great confidence booster going into camp and the season. Conversely, having a bad defensive game at the end could have a negative effect on confidence. So suggesting experience = greatness doesn't always work that way.

And it's kind of funny how much Mili's attitude has changed since the NC game.

How has my attitude changed?

the betting line does not decide the outcome of the game

We know that...no one is saying it does. The discussion is why or why won't the bookies put the starting betting line near 10 points.

the line will be set based on what the betters of america think and where the bookies can guarantee they dont lose money.

The bookies don't give a shit what betters initially think...they'll set the line according to the likelihood of it being covered. Gamblers always react to the opening line, and not vice versa. Bookies will then adjust the line according to the betting distribution.

 

[OregonBuckeye]

Uh, seeing as we have 10 starters returning on defense (your own words), I'd say that yeah, the current defense did play LSU in Jan '08.

Nope. No defense or team stays the same from year-to-year or hell, even week-to-week.

I didn't say they were. Even the best of bookies miss some. But for the most part, they're scary good.

Yes, they are good. But I don't think my opinion means jack shit(your own words) compared to theirs.

Experience helps, but it's not the end-all like you imply. Plus, it's what the "experience" is that counts. Had we blew out LSU and dominted them defensively, that experience would be a great confidence booster going into camp and the season. Conversely, having a bad defensive game at the end could have a negative effect on confidence. So suggesting experience = greatness doesn't always work that way.

How did losing to South Carolina in the Outback bowl help us win the National Championship the next year?

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Nope. No defense or team stays the same from year-to-year or hell, even week-to-week.

Yet you continue to harp on the value of experience. Actually, your statement just helped my point...while experience is indeed a benefit, it is no guarantee of performance. Another reason why the bookies will look more at out more recent results than who we have coming back.

Yes, they are good. But I don't think my opinion means jack shit(your own words) compared to theirs.

I said the bookies don't give a shit what you think...just like they could give a shit what I think.

How did losing to South Carolina in the Outback bowl help us win the National Championship the next year?

No more so than losing to LSU will help us win it this year.

Bottom line is that opening betting line most likely will be significantly higher than what you think it should be, OB. You don't have to agree with their line, nor do I, nor anyone else here. Regardless of what we think, USC will get the benefit of the doubt from the bookies, especially if they blow out their first two opponents.

 

[powerlifter]

Milli is spot on ...People are going to look back at OSU's past national title games and how USC has played in big games period..Not to mention the fact that they are going to be sitting at home..What's the big deal anyways?

The illinois team last year will be brought up countless times by espn the time this game rolls around. It doesn't matter if it is or isn't the same team as last year. What matters is USC toasted them,and we didn't. Be pissy but don't be surprised to see a 10 point spread. As good as this defense can be the media/bookies still see the smoke from the past two national title games,and how osu has failed to step up and over...Also,be prepared for a lot of USC/SEC comparisons.

 

[billmac91]

probably be a 4 or 5 point line. USC being a pro-style offense instead of a spread will keep the line closer than a touchdown.

Plus Beanie Wells plays for the Bucks, which means a grind it out, control the clock type game. I just don't see it being more than 7, and probably closer to 4.

 

[powerlifter]

probably be a 4 or 5 point line. USC being a pro-style offense instead of a spread will keep the line closer than a touchdown.

Plus Beanie Wells plays for the Bucks, which means a grind it out, control the clock type game. I just don't see it being more than 7, and probably closer to 4.

You know I really hope that is the game plan. I just don't like the idea of the pass rush coming at TB again. Beanie is too good to not let him control the game imo.

Traditionally speaking USC can throw up a murderous amount of points quickly. That's something else bookies will look at. Joe mcknight also will be a factor in the thought process.

 

[OregonBuckeye]

Yet you continue to harp on the value of experience. Actually, your statement just helped my point...while experience is indeed a benefit, it is no guarantee of performance. Another reason why the bookies will look more at out more recent results than who we have coming back.

Were the 2004 and 2005 defenses the same? They were by your logic.

I said the bookies don't give a shit what you think...just like they could give a shit what I think.

I didn't say they did. I have no idea why you brought that up in the first place.

No more so than losing to LSU will help us win it this year.

Bottom line is that opening betting line most likely will be significantly higher than what you think it should be, OB. You don't have to agree with their line, nor do I, nor anyone else here. Regardless of what we think, USC will get the benefit of the doubt from the bookies, especially if they blow out their first two opponents.

Well, that's where you and I disagree. I don't think it will even approach 10 points. So bottom line, you think the bookies will look more at our losses to LSU and Florida and homefield advantage and I think they'll see a USC team that's lost some key players and a tOSU team that returns nearly every player from a year ago. End of argument.

FYI, USC only plays one game before our meeting(UVA).

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Were the 2004 and 2005 defenses the same? They were by your logic.

Show me where I said that...never did. My point is that over the last few seasons, our defense got blistered in the most important, high-profile games. That's what the media and bookies will remember.

I didn't say they did. I have no idea why you brought that up in the first place.

Go back and read the progression of posts. Seriously, do you smoke crack?

Well, that's where you and I disagree. I don't think it will even approach 10 points. So bottom line, you think the bookies will look more at our losses to LSU and Florida and homefield advantage and I think they'll see a USC team that's lost some key players and a tOSU team that returns nearly every player from a year ago. End of argument.

I don't think what the bookies will look at, I know what they'll look at. They'll see a fast, strong USC defense going up against an offense that imploded against LSU. They'll also see a USC offense that put 49 points and 600+ yards against a team that we couldn't score half of that. Now, is their thought process right? I'm not saying it is. But I'm telling you right now, if USC pounds Virginia, they media will go into full-fellatio mode on USC, and regardless of what we do against YSU and Ohio, they'll make USC a huge favorite, whether you agree or not.

 

[Sportsbuck28]

Show me where I said that...never did. My point is that over the last few seasons, our defense got blistered in the most important, high-profile games. That's what the media and bookies will remember.

You never did, and he didn't say you did. You said that experience matters very little on defense or something along those lines, and he commented that based on that logic, the 2004 and 2005 defenses were the same when they obviously weren't just based on the experience level.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

You never did, and he didn't say you did. You said that experience matters very little on defense or something along those lines, and he commented that based on that logic, the 2004 and 2005 defenses were the same when they obviously weren't just based on the experience level.

Great, now I have another low-comprehension individual trying to tell me what I said.

I originally said that the bookies won't care as much about what experience we have returning as much as how we've performed in the biggest games recently, especially defensively. I then extended my argument to say that experience isn't the magic-bullet than OregonBuckeye implies it is. Everything else being equal, it is indeed better to have experience, but experience itself doesn't guarantee efficiency. I also said that what was included in that experience is important. Our defense would have a much different mindset going into this season had we beat both Illinois and LSU last season and dominated them on defense. However, they gave up 28 points at home in a loss and then gave up 38 points in the NC game, in a space of three games, and that can effect a defense's confidence (or it can motivate them). And that also is what many bookies will remember, whether or not you and OregonBuckeye agree.