Good game day morning!!!!!
I've gone over this game a million times in my head. I really think this is one of those "who the hell knows what is going to happen" games. Penn State looks good on paper, but then again, they haven't beaten a team ranked in Sagarin's top 50...we've beaten two (Navy 50, Wisconsin 23). They haven't lost to any non quality opponents either, and we did. If you look at the two common opponents...Illinois and Minnesota. Both teams were no match for Ohio State or Penn State.
These teams are different, but equally talented. I try to look at the match-ups and see where I think there is an edge. I think if Pryor has enough time for Sanzenbacher to get open, then he'll be open most of the day. I also don't think there is anybody that can cover Posey. I think Penn State has some big match-up problems in the secondary. But even if we have an extra blocker, are we going to be able to fend off the pass rush of Penn State, because I think they have the edge in that match-up and will be in the backfield often. They are going to be tough to run against, and I expect a lot of short gains when running the ball. But they are going stack the box, and if we can find a hole and break a tackle, we could break off a huge game changing run, so I hope we don't have to abandon the running game. I feel like Pryor is going to have to make some magic happen and break some tackles when are pass blocking breaks down, which it likely will from time to time this game. But if he can shed a tackle or two, which he can do, then it comes down to his decision making. Will he know when he can run for big gains? Will he know when to look for the open receiver, and only throw the ball if something is there, AND above all, use the proper mechanics that he has been working on for the past year and half, and not throw off his back foot. The way it breaks down, he's going to be flushed from the pocket, and guys are going to be open. Can he get the ball to them is the big question on my mind.
Defensively, with our D-line healthy, I don't think their O-line can stop our front 4 pass rush. I think they have the same match-up problems that we do. Clark is going to have to get rid of the ball quick and make good decisions. They have a good match-up no matter who we are going to have on their TE. We may see quite a few passes go that way. Our corners should be able to handle their WRs, but if we aren't getting pressure with our front 4, then Clark is going to be able to find an open guy in the cover 2 and other zone coverages. I think our best bet is some man coverage blitzes. I'm think their running game matches up about the same as ours does against their defense. Except I see less chance of them breaking a big run, and I also don't think we are going to commit to stopping the run as much as they are going to, honestly. As far as the match-ups, the only true advantages I see is both D-lines match up well against the O-lines. I think therefore both sets up LBs are going to be free to do a lot of damage. I think our WRs match up well against their secondary. That's a better match-up for us than they have when they are on offense with their WRs against our secondary. So the question is, can we take advantage of that. If we can't, then it really doesn't help us much. So it looks like it's going to be about which QB can escape the pressure, and think quickly without making mistakes. OR, maybe i'm wrong, and one of the O-lines will play stronger than a D-line. If that happens to us, Clark could likely pick us apart, but we still may be able to force an INT or turnover. BUT on the flip-side, if our O-line is able to beat their D-line, then watch out, because then I think our skill players will take over this game.
Man oh man...lots going on in my head. I really can't see either team scoring. If this game is 0-0 at half, I wouldn't be shocked...and it's not because the offenses are bad, it's just because I think the D-line's are going to be in the backfield all day for both teams. This may be the type of game where Tressel can win by making sure the Bucks don't turn the ball over, and that we win field position battles with our special teams.
Oh, and that's one more thing...our biggest plus in all the match-ups. Punt returns and kickoff returns. Both sides of the ball, we should have big advantages. This could prove to be the difference in the game. I think the most likely way a TD is going to be scored in this one, is when we return one for a TD.
Go Bucks!!!
Beat Penn State!!!
Ohio State 13
Penn State 0
