The History of Passing Efficiency
The recent upward trend in passing efficiency in college football in general and especially at Ohio State in particular got me wondering how we got here. I thought back over 5+ decades of following the sport and I could remember 3 periods when the passing game seemed to change. Somewhere in the 60s there was a significant uptick in the passing game; people were talking a lot about how different the game was becoming. Then again in the late 70s - early 80s there seemed to be a lot of discussion about how times had changed and offenses were so different. Now in the 21st century, it's obvious that the game has become far more complex than it was, not to mention the rules changes that have made things harder on the defenses.
I decided to look at some historical numbers, and it turns out that the history of passing efficiency agrees with my memory on when things changed and how much.
The NCAA established the current passing efficiency formula in 1979, choosing a formula that would give an average quarterback of the time a rating of 100. It was as good a time as any to establish a baseline, and it was clear the passing game was becoming much more important. As far as I've been able to find, numbers have been calculated going back to 1956. I can't speak to the accuracy of numbers before 1999, because for all seasons before that data are difficult to come by. Assuming that what I've found for the second half of the 20th century is correct...
Bob Reinhart of San Jose State is reported to have led the NCAA in passing efficiency in 1956 with a rating of 121.3
Bob Newman of Washington State did a little better in 1957 with a rating of 126.5
Apparently there was an improvement in the passing game in the late 1950s (shortly before I was born), because those are the last numbers in the 120s to lead the NCAA in PE.
If we call Reinhart's starting point in 1956 the record (due entirely to lack of data), then that "record" was broken in:
- 1957
- 1958
195919601961- 1962
- 1963
- 1964
Hopefully it is clear from the above that the record was broken in 5 years out of 8 (even though 1964-1957=7, I don't want to have that discussion again, count them).
Eddie Wilson's (Arizona) rating of 134.2 in 1961 was remarkable in that it was the last rating in the 130s to ever lead the NCAA in PE.
Jerry Rhome's (Tulsa) rating of 172.6 in 1964 was truly remarkable. It was the first in the 170s, and would remain the ONLY PE rating in the 170s until Jim McMahon of BYU broke his record in 1980 with a rating of 176.9. All the more remarkable is that, while Jerry held the record the longest, Jim's record would last until Danny Wuerffel of Florida broke it in 1995 (178.4). So the record changed hands only once from 1964 until 1995.
This does not mean, however, that there were no changes going on in the passing game during that time; it just means that Jerry and Jim had remarkable, outlier seasons. In order to see the changes in the game, you have to look at the smaller numbers that were leading the NCAA during that period.
From 1970 to 1976, a PE in the 140s led the NCAA in 5 of those 7 seasons (count them if you must). In the other two, a PE in the 150s sufficed to lead the nation. That 1976 season, however, was the last season in which the 140s was good enough to lead the NCAA in PE (though Elvis Grbac's 150.2 in 1992 came perilously close).
Clearly then, the improvements in the passing game that I remember happening in the 60s and in the late 70s - early 80s are borne out by the numbers.
As we've seen:
The last time that the 120s was good enough to lead the NCAA was in 1957.
The last time that the 130s was good enough was 4 years later in 1961.
The last time that the 140s was good enough was 15 years later in 1976.
Now for the 2000s (check your 5-point-harness for structural integrity):
The last time that the 150s was good enough to lead the NCAA in PE was in 2002, 26 years after the last time the 140s was good enough.
For those who care it was Brad Banks of Iowa with a rating of 157.12.
Not only was that the last time that the 150s was good enough; the 160s would only be good enough 1 more time, and that was Tim Tebow in 2009 (164.17)
Then the 2010s happened.
The last time the 170s was good enough was in 2015 (179.08 Vernon Adams, Oregon). That was the last time that anything less than 196.39 was enough.
While the record for PE changed hands 5 times in the first 8 chances where it could have changed hands, it changed hands just once in the next 30 seasons.
As most of you know, the PE record has been set afresh in each of the last 5 seasons (though admittedly for one of those the record did not change hands because Baker Mayfield broke his own record in 2017). The Coastal Carolina QB is on pace to make it 6 years in a row.
And it's not just one area of passing, and it's not just at the top of the sport. Everything that goes into passing efficiency; completions, yards, touchdowns, interceptions, has improved dramatically since 2000.
The last time < 9 yards per attempt was enough to lead the country was in 2002.
The last time < 10 yards per attempt was enough to lead the country was in 2009. (> 10 yards per attempt had only been accomplished twice, ever, before then).
The last time < 11 yards per attempt was enough to lead the country was in 2015.
The top completion % in college football in 2000 was 64.67%. It hasn't been below 70% since. Last year it was 77.36%.
So much for what's happening at the top; let's look at the rest of the field.
The NCAA only publishes numbers for the top 100 quarterbacks (or those that qualify with a certain number of attempts, which has been at least 98 quarterbacks every year). For those who qualify or the top 100 (whichever is the smaller number is the list):
Average yards per attempt was 7.09 in 2000. Average YPA first reached 7.4 in 2009 and has been above 7.4 in every year since. It was 7.70 in 2018, 7.80 in 2019, and 7.78 in 2000.
Average completion percentage first hit 60% in 2007 and has been above that number every year since.
The last time touchdowns were thrown on fewer than 5% of pass attempts was in 2005. The % of touchdowns reached 5.9% for the first time last year (for the top 100 FBS quarterbacks - all attempts).
The first time interceptions were ever thrown on fewer than 3% of pass attempts was in 2005. The last time interceptions were thrown on MORE than 3% of pass attempts was in 2006. That number continues to drop (top 100 FBS quarterbacks - all attempts).
One last set of numbers to bring it home to Buckeye fans before I close with a graph:
While the first ever season with a passing efficiency > 170 happened in 1964, the first time a Buckeye ever did it was in 2018.
The first time a Buckeye exceeded 180 was in 2019.
CJ Stroud currently sits at 191.16.
View attachment 30328
