Official Statistical Analysis Thread

[DaddyBigBucks]

The second quarter weirdness continues:

Ohio State touchdown to Opponent touchdown ratios

Q1 - 10:1
Q2 - 4:3
Q3 - 8:1
Q4 - 5:2*​

* --> Both opponent 4th quarter touchdowns came when Wiscy left their starters in vs Buckeye Backups​

Ohio State Passing Efficiency

Q1 - 239.639
Q2 - 158.446
Q3 - 204.472
Q4 - 210.659​

The only quarter NOT over 200 is Q2.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

More Second Quarter weirdness with another Q4 asterisk:

Rushing Defense by Quarter

Q1: 1.93 ypc
Q2: 4.03 ypc
Q3: 3.13 ypc
Q4: 3.97 ypc*

* --> 75 of opponents' 143 rushing yards in the 4th quarter came on one play pitting the Badger starters against the Buckeyes' Backups' Backups. In spite of this, the Silver Bullets have still allowed more ypc in the 2nd quarter than in the 4th.​

 

[Bestbuck36]

Fucking Bermuda Triangle of a 2nd quarter!

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Rewatching the game, there’s nothing weird at all about the second quarter as far as passing efficiency is concerned. Harrison got dinged on the last play of the first quarter. Already down the #1 receiver; losing another caused a little havoc. No biggie IMHO

 

[shetuck]

@DaddyBigBucks are the stats from the notre dame game different (in a statistically significant way)?

the reason i'm asking is because all the other games were essentially in the can after the 1st quarter. and the personnel in the second half have been a mishmash.

i'm just spitballing here.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

@DaddyBigBucks are the stats from the notre dame game different (in a statistically significant way)?

the reason i'm asking is because all the other games were essentially in the can after the 1st quarter. and the personnel in the second half have been a mishmash.

i'm just spitballing here.

Perhaps I don't understand your question. The weirdness is in the 2nd quarter, when the 1st string is still playing, not in the second half.

Or perhaps there were more personnel changes in the 2nd quarter than I realized.

Whatever it is, let me know what you'd like me to sort out and I'll do what I can. I just want to make sure I answer the question you're asking.

 

[dragurd]

Perhaps I don't understand your question. The weirdness is in the 2nd quarter, when the 1st string is still playing, not in the second half.

Or perhaps there were more personnel changes in the 2nd quarter than I realized.

Whatever it is, let me know what you'd like me to sort out and I'll do what I can. I just want to make sure I answer the question you're asking.

I thoink the implication here is the games were over by the 2nd quarter and their focus might have slipped if Notre Dame doesn't show the same pattern

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

I thoink the implication here is the games were over by the 2nd quarter and their focus might have slipped if Notre Dame doesn't show the same pattern

well…

if that’s the case…

 

[shetuck]

Perhaps I don't understand your question. The weirdness is in the 2nd quarter, when the 1st string is still playing, not in the second half.

Or perhaps there were more personnel changes in the 2nd quarter than I realized.

Whatever it is, let me know what you'd like me to sort out and I'll do what I can. I just want to make sure I answer the question you're asking.

Basically what @dragurd is saying below... that since all the games (except ND) were well in the bag by the 2nd quarter, we started shifting personnel, hence the "void" in the stats.

so, i'd be curious what your calculations look like -ex ND.

I thoink the implication here is the games were over by the 2nd quarter and their focus might have slipped if Notre Dame doesn't show the same pattern

Yes. Right.

well…

if that’s the case…

View attachment 33163

the stats other than this ^^^

 

[Zurp]

There is a pattern... but it is purely numerical. I agree that it is probably a coincidence, especially where Stroud's performance is concerned. The defense might be better explained by your last paragraph, but we'll need more data for that. By the end of the season, I expect that this won't even be a topic of conversation, but Saturday will tell us if that's true or not. That's why i'll be dialed in for the 2nd quarter on saturday; I want to see that next data point to try to figure out if there's anything to this.

I will also be very interested in seeing whether Knowles' defense is the 2nd half killer that I hope they are. It's still too early, which is why I said that's a different post for a different day. But my gut tells me that Knowles' is going to have the best 2nd half defense we've seen since Dantonio. If that trend continues, there will definitely be more posts about it in this thread. I expect the 2nd quarter performance discussion to be in the rear view mirror before Halloween

I'd be interested to see how the last 2 games have impacted your analysis. I know that there had to have been a let-down from first quarter to second quarter against Toledo. They scored 28 in the first quarter, and I think just 14 in the second quarter against Toledo. Then, against Wisconsin, they scored 21 in the first quarter and 10 in the second.
You might be on to something. Maybe it's something cool like the scripted plays are running out, or the other team "solves" Ohio State's offense. Maybe it's (in the case of the last 2 games) the players saying, "We're up 28 points in the 2nd, I can take it easy for a few plays." (I hope it isn't that one.) Maybe that's when they're starting to put the back-ups in here and there, and they aren't in the right rhythm. I don't know.

Nice.. so apparently I was responding to a post that I thought was on the last page of the thread, but it wasn't. You answered my questions on the real last page of the thread. Thanks.

 

[Onebuckfan]

The second quarter weirdness continues:

Ohio State touchdown to Opponent touchdown ratios

Q1 - 10:1
Q2 - 4:3
Q3 - 8:1
Q4 - 5:2*​

* --> Both opponent 4th quarter touchdowns came when Wiscy left their starters in vs Buckeye Backups​

Ohio State Passing Efficiency

Q1 - 239.639
Q2 - 158.446
Q3 - 204.472
Q4 - 210.659​

The only quarter NOT over 200 is Q2.

I wonder if the Offense is locked in on the first 16 scripted plays. The passing efficiency is off the charts. When they use off script plays they aren’t quite as effective and when they repeat a play the D is more ready for it. Just thinking out loud.

 

[shetuck]

I wonder if the Offense is locked in on the first 16 scripted plays. The passing efficiency is off the charts. When they use off script plays they aren’t quite as effective and when they repeat a play the D is more ready for it. Just thinking out loud.

does the run/pass split change in the second quarter if/when the game is in the bag?

 

[MGMT]

So you guys are saying Day is a good scripter and not a good play caller.

yes I am putting words in your mouth; no I am not being serious.
Enjoy your evening

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

does the run/pass split change in the second quarter if/when the game is in the bag?

I'm not sure if "when the game is in the bag" is the reason, but there is definitely a difference in the play calling in the second quarter compared to the first. If it were because the game were in the bag, you'd expect the trend to continue into the 3rd, but it doesn't.

Percentage of running plays by quarter
Q1: 45.33%
Q2: 58.73%
Q3: 46.58%
Q4: 71.67%

This doesn't explain the difference in the defense in the 2nd quarter. It also doesn't explain why the pass efficiency goes down in the 2nd quarter. In most situations, pass efficiency goes up when passing frequency goes down.

To be honest with you, I still think most of this is coincidence. I think there are different causes in different games. I think it's a weird aberration that it's gone on this long. I think by the end of the season this will be joked about or not remembered at all. I also think there's a decent chance I'm wrong about all of this. The only thing I know is that it is too early for me to draw conclusions from the numbers on hand. There may be information out there that could shed light on this; I haven't seen it yet.

 

[shetuck]

I'm not sure if "when the game is in the bag" is the reason, but there is definitely a difference in the play calling in the second quarter compared to the first. If it were because the game were in the bag, you'd expect the trend to continue into the 3rd, but it doesn't.

Percentage of running plays by quarter
Q1: 45.33%
Q2: 58.73%
Q3: 46.58%
Q4: 71.67%

This doesn't explain the difference in the defense in the 2nd quarter. It also doesn't explain why the pass efficiency goes down in the 2nd quarter. In most situations, pass efficiency goes up when passing frequency goes down.

To be honest with you, I still think most of this is coincidence. I think there are different causes in different games. I think it's a weird aberration that it's gone on this long. I think by the end of the season this will be joked about or not remembered at all. I also think there's a decent chance I'm wrong about all of this. The only thing I know is that it is too early for me to draw conclusions from the numbers on hand. There may be information out there that could shed light on this; I haven't seen it yet.

That’s pretty interesting…

Can you share the raw (absolute) numbers for the run/pass split? Maybe even by opponent?

If Stroud isn’t taking the bulk of the snaps in the 3rd quarter then I don’t think the Q3 and Q2 numbers are really comparable.

Mainly what I was curious to see is whether there’s a significant change in the run/pass split between Q1 and Q2… and there seems to be.

Maybe what these stats are simply a reflection of the fact that the passing offense is more efficient than the running offense.

Re your statement about the drop-off in passing efficiency proportional to the shift over to more running plays in Q2, I would agree assuming that the types and targets for those passes are roughly the same.

And, like you say, a change in OSU’s tendencies on offense between Q1 and Q2 doesn’t explain anything about the numbers on the defensive side. Except that maybe the opposing offense is also changing their run/pass tendency when it’s clear that the game is getting away from them… ie maybe shifting more from running to passing.

And I don’t think such strong contrasts are just a coincidence. I think that teams have plans for each quarter and they may actively adjust these depending on how things are going.