Notes to Team USA for future WBC play

[Jaxbuck]

It does count as a plate appearance for game and/or batting champion purposes. Remember a couple years ago when Barroid Bonds was walked an MLB record number of times, had it not been for the fact that just taking a pitch makes it a plate appearance meant he could qualify for the BA title.

PA may be used to determine eligibility for the batting title, I honestly do not know, but BA is only counted one way(Hits/AB's) and walks do not count as an AB.

 

[Nutriaitch]

If you are of the opinion that BA is a better indicator of offensive performance then you are also of the opinion that a single is the same as a double, triple or homerun.

not quite. I don't think any one of those are better than the other on their own.

all of them combined need to be considered, along with Strikeouts, RBI, runs scored.

 

[Jaxbuck]

not quite. I don't think any one of those are better than the other on their own.

OK. Do this, pretend a player gets a single every time up for a year, then pretend another player hits a home run every at bat for the same number of ab's. Which player scored more runs?

singles: 600 AB's x 1 total bases each = 600 total bases/4=150 runs
HR's: 600 AB's x 4 total bases each = 2400 total bases/4=600 runs

Batting average tells us that the 150 run producing single is just as valuable as the 600 run producing HR. 600 is more than 150 where I went to school so that pretty much makes BA a not so hot indicator of offensive production.

all of them combined need to be considered, along with Strikeouts, RBI, runs scored.

Not making outs is the key, the type of out isn't nearly as important. All outs are bad. Not sure how RBI's even entered into the discussion.

 

[Nutriaitch]

OK. Do this, pretend a player gets a single every time up for a year, then pretend another player hits a home run every at bat for the same number of ab's. Which player scored more runs?

singles: 600 AB's x 1 total bases each = 600 total bases/4=150 runs
HR's: 600 AB's x 4 total bases each = 2400 total bases/4=600 runs

Batting average tells us that the 150 run producing single is just as valuable as the 600 run producing HR. 600 is more than 150 where I went to school so that pretty much makes BA a not so hot indicator of offensive production.

my previous post wasn't worded very well.
I didn't mean a single, double, triple, HR weren't any better than any of the others.

I meant BA and OBP.
neither stat is worth a shit on their own.

I can think of numerous instances where a single is better than a walk, yet both are viewed equally when figuring OBP.
and in most situations, putting the ball in play is much better than taking strike 3

the type of out isn't nearly as important.

situation: man on 3rd, 1 out.

would you prefer your hitter strikeout, or hit a flyball to medium/deep right field?

what about a pop out to the catcher, or a ground out to short, where he can only get the man at 1st

Not sure how RBI's even entered into the discussion.

who knows. I think I was kinda rambling at that point.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I meant BA and OBP.
neither stat is worth a shit on their own.

No stat should be used in a vacum to draw sweeping conclusions from. No one stat encompasses the worth of a ball player to his team. That said if you had to pick one "stat" to be the best indicator of offensive production that you can get from just one "stat" its OPS (OBP+SLG). I put quotes on "stat" because technically it isn't one. OPS is adding up two stats.

I can think of numerous instances where a single is better than a walk, yet both are viewed equally when figuring OBP.
and in most situations, putting the ball in play is much better than taking strike 3





situation: man on 3rd, 1 out.

would you prefer your hitter strikeout, or hit a flyball to medium/deep right field?

what about a pop out to the catcher, or a ground out to short, where he can only get the man at 1st

You can always think of a milion particular scenarios where a sac fly or something is better than a K. I could sit here all day long and come up with scenarios in which it didn't make a difference. The bottom line is there is no statistical correlation between strike outs and poor run production.

Big time number crunchers (real life rocket scientists) have done the math for the entire body of MLB data and the only thing that shows correlation is OPS. BA, K's none of the stuff you hear people who "know" baseball use as indicators of offensive perfomance correlate to scoring more/less runs. Only OPS does.

I know guys like Joe Morgan dismiss this and have a long list of word tracks for why the feel its ok to do so. It usually is highlighted by their time in the game or the fact they played at the MLB level. Well I have never been a bus driver but I feel 100% confident in my judgement when I see shitty bus driving or good bus driving and comment on it. As a poster at RedZone once so famously said....baseball isn't a magic trick, its doesn't get spoiled when you figure out how it works.

The thing with OPS is that it been proven on an absolutely huge sample size to have a direct statistical correlation to run scoring, nothing else has. So when a guy tells me he doesn't want to hear about or believe any of that what he's really telling me is he doesn't believe 2+2 = 4, he doesn't believe math. I don't have to have been a MLB player to argue until I'm blue in the face that 2+2 does indeed = 4.

So thats all a long way of saying that, sure I'd rather get the sac fly from a guy instead of a K but in the big picture over an entire season an out is pretty much an out. They are all bad and I want a lineup full of guys who do the best job of not making them.