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Josh Allen's completion percentage hovered around similar marks during his last season as Wyoming.

He was/is a big kid with a canon and good athletic ability. Seems like a lifetime ago when Bills fans had to deal with the fact that he was arguably the worst QB in the NFL his 1st two seasons. The problem is, for every Josh Allen, there are 10 more busts who were mechanically unfit, accuracy erratic and lacked the processing speed to play QB. AR-15 looks to fit the long and sad mold of that trend.

The percentages of drafting an elite QB are low. You do your franchise zero justice by taking a player who is the most flawed as a passer. And yelling "he's athletic" means nothing anymore. 20 years ago you had an argument, now defenses are structured and athletes are so good that they invite you to beat them with your legs knowing you won't consistently do it with your arm (Looking at you, Lamar)
 
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Buckeneye said:
Josh Allen's completion percentage hovered around similar marks during his last season as Wyoming.

He was/is a big kid with a canon and good athletic ability. Seems like a lifetime ago when Bills fans had to deal with the fact that he was arguably the worst QB in the NFL his 1st two seasons. The problem is, for every Josh Allen, there are 10 more busts who were mechanically unfit, accuracy erratic and lacked the processing speed to play QB. AR-15 looks to fit the long and sad mold of that trend.

The percentages of drafting an elite QB are low. You do your franchise zero justice by taking a player who is the most flawed as a passer. And yelling "he's athletic" means nothing anymore. 20 years ago you had an argument, now defenses are structured and athletes are so good that they invite you to beat them with your legs knowing you won't consistently do it with your arm (Looking at you, Lamar)
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got into a discussion with a Raider fan who says NOT taking someone like Richardson is the big mistake here. his logic was that you need to draft an elite QB to compete, and the only way to do that is to always draft one until you have him. I look forward to a continuing cycle of drafting shitty QBs and always needing to draft a new one, while the team never gets built around them because all the first round picks are used on shitty QBs that have UpSiDe.
 
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BuckeyeNation27 said:
All I see from people who think he's a good pick "you really have to watch the film to see that his accuracy problems aren't really his fault". Sure. Drafting a guy who is screaming at you that he sucks as a QB, to play QB, all because he can do something NON-QB related always works. Always.
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The Richardson hype to me is hilarious because it just follows a very long trend of drafting too high at QB for the sake of trying to pick a franchise QB when he isn't there. I don't give a shit what Richardson does in the combine or pro day, he sucked as a QB in college other than running. At Florida, you should be able to make it work if you are a truly good QB. I would be furious if my team drafted him in the first.
 
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This whole topic is madness. A QB needs the right system to begin with. So first you need to have a guy go to the right team/OC. Then he needs to be able to actually play and process defenses.
I do not have the clear number in front of me but I would guess that an "elite" QB comes out of college about 1 every 2 years on average. Considering the best ones play over 12-15 years and you only have about 5-10 guys in that discussion year in and year out. So you must realize that you are truly looking for the needle in the haystack. And again you could get him and then break him and never get the player that could have been. I was convinced the Bungles had done just that with Burrows when he got broken but he came back stronger and better. He is a monster BTW. Literally a nightmare. Cocky and comes through it seems in clutch all the time. I get he has not won a SB yet but I am pretty confident he will get one.
With this all said. I think AR has bust written all over him. For that matter, what has Allen won? If he is not careful he is going to end up like Cam Newton. A MVP player that wore his body out before he could win a SB. And to be fair to Allen, he has to deal with Mahomes and Burrows. So it is rough over in the AFC.
Drafting QBs is almost a complete crap shoot. But you do get some guys that seem a lock. I think Lawrence is coming out the other end of sucking. And I do think Burrows looked like a lock out of college also and has delivered. I did not think Mahomes was a lock but he has turned into a freak.

I also thought that Fields was a lock coming out. He had similar pedigree as Lawrence. But either he is just not good enough or he was cursed with the wrong team, wrong OC to put it together. Which again can be a death sentence.
 
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Buckeneye said:
Josh Allen's completion percentage hovered around similar marks during his last season as Wyoming.

He was/is a big kid with a canon and good athletic ability. Seems like a lifetime ago when Bills fans had to deal with the fact that he was arguably the worst QB in the NFL his 1st two seasons. The problem is, for every Josh Allen, there are 10 more busts who were mechanically unfit, accuracy erratic and lacked the processing speed to play QB. AR-15 looks to fit the long and sad mold of that trend.

The percentages of drafting an elite QB are low. You do your franchise zero justice by taking a player who is the most flawed as a passer. And yelling "he's athletic" means nothing anymore. 20 years ago you had an argument, now defenses are structured and athletes are so good that they invite you to beat them with your legs knowing you won't consistently do it with your arm (Looking at you, Lamar)
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Yep, but if you're spending a top-5 pick praying you get an anomaly like Josh Allen, you deserve every bit of ridicule you get when he inevitably busts. The list of guys with "tools" that struggled with accuracy, were drafted high anyway, and busted bigly is long...Cade McNown, Kyle Boller, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Josh Freeman, Vince Young, Rex Grossman, Patrick Ramsey, Akili Smith, etc. I just don't understand gambling on a longshot when it's a pick that you really need to hit.
 
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BuckeyeNation27 said:
got into a discussion with a Raider fan who says NOT taking someone like Richardson is the big mistake here. his logic was that you need to draft an elite QB to compete, and the only way to do that is to always draft one until you have him. I look forward to a continuing cycle of drafting shitty QBs and always needing to draft a new one, while the team never gets built around them because all the first round picks are used on shitty QBs that have UpSiDe.
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Competent QB play with a solid surrounding cast will make you competitive alone, it's the example I used for the Browns for years. But in the modern NFL, only an elite passer will open and keep open a superbowl window.

Notice I differentiated QB from elite passer - because, as we've seen, there are plenty of starting QB's in the NFL who aren't that.

NFBuck said:
Yep, but if you're spending a top-5 pick praying you get an anomaly like Josh Allen, you deserve every bit of ridicule you get when he inevitably busts. The list of guys with "tools" that struggled with accuracy, were drafted high anyway, and busted bigly is long...Cade McNown, Kyle Boller, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Josh Freeman, Vince Young, Rex Grossman, Patrick Ramsey, Akili Smith, etc. I just don't understand gambling on a longshot when it's a pick that you really need to hit.
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I've never understood it myself. But it circles back around to what a former NFL player once told me 'it isn't a game played, coached, owned or managed by geniuses'.
 
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If you want a good NFL QB prospect you know ability to process defenses and being able to deliver an accurate pass on time are way more important than velocity. With that said if you want to have a consistently good team you need to have it together up front in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
Additionally, while I do agree that the QB is key, one might argue that having an OC that knows how to dissect Defenses is more important. KC with Mahomes and without Reid may not have any SB wins. And conversely maybe Reid without Mahomes has also not won a SB in KC. SO it takes a team approach with the right pieces to make it happen.
I think their are a handful of QBs that would have won in KC. Burrows being an obvious one.

Again I think you have Mahomes and Burrows and then it drops down. I am not sold on Josh Allen. Is he really good, YES. Is he fun to watch, YES. Is he tough and clutch, YES. But he is missing something that I think Burrow and Mahomes have that he does not. I can not really put my finger on it but those 2 just seem to know something that no one else knows. Similar to Brady. I have a Love/Hate relationship with TB12 but what I can not do is discount his ability to win and perform in clutch situations. He 100% seems to know when it is time to make it happen and he also can bleed a clock better than anyone I have ever watched play.
Predicting the NFL success of a college QB is seemingly impossible. But I do think the team and OC have way more to do with it then the QB himself.
 
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Greyshirt said:
Again I think you have Mahomes and Burrows and then it drops down. I am not sold on Josh Allen. Is he really good, YES. Is he fun to watch, YES. Is he tough and clutch, YES. But he is missing something that I think Burrow and Mahomes have that he does not. I can not really put my finger on it but those 2 just seem to know something that no one else knows.
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I think that "something" is standing on the sideline.
I rate Andy Reid and Zach Taylor higher that McDermot as head coaches and believe that both Burrow and Mahomes benefit more from them that Allen does from his coach. Not that he can't continue to improve - but it's where he was at the end of the 2022 season.

Also, I think JA probably took a tiny step backward when the Giants hired Daboll. We can already see how he made Daniel Jones better in last season.

This is also why I'm fine with my Falcons standing firm in not trading for Lamar or moving up to get one of these top quarterbacks. Desmon Ridder can be a perfectly fine QB1 in the NFL. Does he have All Pro potential? We'll see (I have some doubts), but for goodness sake you got him in the Third Round and are paying him 5.36mm over 4 years. That's nothing against the cap. He sat and learned last year - now he has 3 years to earn a bigger deal. I'm extremely comfortable with those terms and that process.
 
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BigWoof31 said:
You can already see how he made Daniel Jones better in last season.
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By increasing the team rush rate by damn near 10% over 2021 numbers? That includes having your QB on pace for 1k yards himself until you slowed his attempts down the back half of the season for fear of contact.

He may have made Danny Dimes a more effective QB in terms of their designs, given how buttoned down the offense was, both out of necessity and to reel in DDs penchant for ill-timed turnovers; but it's a real stretch to say Daboll made him a better as a passer.

If anything, the 2022 Gmen took the 2011 Broncos route. Taking the ball out of Tebow's hands, played keep away/control then leaned on the defense to create turnovers, plus possessions and short fields.

Hardly a ringing endorsement when you reason that comparison. Hell, the post seasons played out damn near the same from those two teams 11 years apart. Denver played a decent, but incredibly flawed Steelers team for a dramatic win. Then went on to get their ass beat the next week by the Pats.

The Gmen got an offensively schizophrenic, but defensively deficient Vikings squad. Only to get absolutely skulled fucked by the Iggles the following Sunday.


Am I calling Danny Tebow? No, he has the potential to be a good passer. But that's all he is at the moment - potential. With it coming the reality of being turnover prone when previously made the offensive focal point.
 
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Listen regardless of anything this is dumb with a capital D.
A talk show guy up here has a long list of rules for high end athletes (earn North 5M a year)

You have a guy for a bunch of things because you can not screw up your money over dumb crap:

- a guy who holds you weed
- a guy who carries a gun (if you feel the need) Plaxico dumbass comes to mind
- a guy who drives you around (your friend who is not allowed to drink or smoke)
- the guy who drives you around must be male so you can also use his piss as needed for any tests
- a guy who keeps you from punching anyone (male or female)
- a guy who gets you late night grub
- a guy who makes sure your texts and pictures are cleared out daily from your phone
- a guy who makes your bets


You can clearly have some people who hold down multiple jobs.

But the point is that there are clearly work arounds to make sure you do not screw up that paycheck. And then once you are no longer making that big bank you fire them all and continue on until you likely either get smart or get broke.

The point is that you should be at least be smart enough to shield yourself from yourself.......
 
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