NBA vs. NFL?

[billmac91]

Anyone else think the NBA could overtake the NFL as most popular professinal sport in the next 3-4 years?

The NFL is king right now, no arguments. But here is a continuing underground movement of angry fans/writers frustrated with the rules/hierarchy of the NFL.

Problems for the NFL:

1. Too much turnover. The rules of the NFL have made it a week to week league. The clock continues on just about everything, and games are shortened beyond belief. Get lucky one season, suck the next. It keeps fans of particular teams interested, but the overall play has suffered, and mid-late season match-ups suffer. For every New England Patriots, you have a bad team making the playoffs off of a fluke season in which shortened games allow them to scrape by.

2. Awful rules changes. You can't hit a QB below the knees, you can't hit a QB above the shoulders. You can't hit a QB too hard. All are 15 yard penalties. Which leads back to point #1. How many close games have been swayed by a TERRIBLE roughing the passer penalty. At least one game a weekend has a signifigant call involved revolving around an awful NFL rule putting skirts on its' players. The play has become less entertaining, and games are changed on awful rules. It makes viewing difficult and less fun. Better teams lose games on terrible rules.

3. Over-saturation of the game. How many fans can honestly watch ESPN on Monday's? Starting at 3pm on Monday, you have wall to wall coverage of Monday Night Football. All week you have to listen to pundits make terrible predictions and act lik ethey know what is going to happen in a week to week league. Are the Cowboys still undefeated?


The NBA still has a lot of ground to make up...but things in their favor:

1. Great young players with LIKEABLE attributes:

LeBron James
Chris Paul
Chris Bosh
Dwight Howard
Dwayne Wade
Dirk Nowitski
Greg Oden
Tim Duncan
Tony Parker
Kobe Bryant (yes he has a rape charge, but it is an afterthought at this point. He has completely rebuilt his reputation).
Kevin Garnett

Beyond this, players like Dirk and Yao Ming have truly made the NBA a global entity. Players from all over the world dream of playing in the NBA. How many foreigners are dreaming of playing in the NFL?

2. Large market teams are competitive again. Through an amazing off-season the Celtics are relevant and reigning champs. Because of Kobe the Lakers are relevant. I hate both, but the league is better for it. The Knicks now have Mark D'Antoni and will be competitive soon with an exciting brand of basketball.

3. High School players have to play 1 year of college ball. We now know who Greg Oden is. We know who Kevin Durant is. Derrick Rose is now a player to follow in Chicago. What kind of NBA player will Kevin Love be? OJ Mayo? It creates more interest.

4. Rules changes. Rule changes in the NBA have created a more enteratining game. No hand-checking creates more scoring and frees up offensive players. Zone defenses allows teams to actually press if they need too. Thnak God the NBA hasn't decided to continue to run the clock when the basketball goes out of bounds like in college and NFL ball now.

 

[fourteenandoh]

The NBA is definitely on the up. Likeable athletes is the key to their rise IMO. I don't know about passing the NFL though. That doesn't seem very likely to me.

 

[OCBucksFan]

I think it could overtake the NFL, I don't know if it will happen. I still think that the Superbowl will always be the pinnacle of sporting events. There's more talent you can recognize in the NBA, that's for sure, players get a chance to make a name for themselves then more often than not, they contain that for the next years.

The problems with the NBA are the same as the NFL at this point, more often than not, a small collection of teams win the championship, whereas the rest just fall to the side.

Also, one of the major problems I see with the NBA is after a season where you don't make it to the finals, teams are likely to do major rebuilding. The names you knew last year aren't there, if you are a fan of the Spurs, Lakers, Celtics, the Pistons, or one of the other teams who gets in between these major players, then there's a chance the guy you liked last year might not even be there. in the NFL, the "stars" tend to remain on the team for a while, I had a Seau jersey for like 8 years, I have my Tomlinson jersey for 5.

The fact that the NBA is all week, helps both organizations actually, the NBA tries to schedule few teams on sundays during the NFL season, especially for big time matchups.

College football will still always be king to me, every year you see a team come to shine that's outside of the regular power, sure, they may not make the title game, but they are a good story, and they usually get the opportunity to beat up on Oklahoma at the end of the year.

 

[billmac91]

The NBA is definitely on the up. Likeable athletes is the key to their rise IMO. I don't know about passing the NFL though. That doesn't seem very likely to me.

Maybe not. The NFL is really hurting their product amongst many fans with the protection of players and turnover of the league IMO.

Not to say this couldn;t happen in the NBA, but you could put 3 different officiating crews on the same game, and get 3 completely diferent games in the NFL. There just isn't a very good way to see who the best teams are and it hurts the overall product IMO. Protection of players, judegment of the officials, and incompetence are hurting.

The NBA has bad officials too, but overall, the best teams rise to the top and take over a game.

College football will still always be king to me, every year you see a team come to shine that's outside of the regular power, sure, they may not make the title game, but they are a good story, and they usually get the opportunity to beat up on Oklahoma at the end of the year.

College football is king to me as well, but college will never be king overall. Too many people never go to college, and don't have a school affiliation. College fans are passed through generations and attendance to the university. You just have to live in a city to truly get behind a pro team.

 

[Jake]

Anyone else think the NBA could overtake the NFL as most popular professinal sport in the next 3-4 years?

Nope.

 

[jwinslow]

No.

Football as a sport is far more beloved, more central to american culture (growing up playing/going), and is fueled by an immensely popular college league.

Basketball has unfair stereotypes to overcome, is too long and inconsequential of a season, and is fueled by a college league which is ignored for the first 4 months.

1. Too much turnover. The rules of the NFL have made it a week to week league. The clock continues on just about everything, and games are shortened beyond belief. Get lucky one season, suck the next. It keeps fans of particular teams interested, but the overall play has suffered, and mid-late season match-ups suffer. For every New England Patriots, you have a bad team making the playoffs off of a fluke season in which shortened games allow them to scrape by.

It's been like this for a long time. I'd say history directly refutes your point.

The turnover makes the NFL compelling. Every team has a chance every year, and a terrible franchise can suddenly be a contender in one off-season.

The turnover in personnel and contracts isn't very nice or loyal, but you don't get stuck with terrible players, let alone entire rosters worth like the Knicks.

2. Awful rules changes. You can't hit a QB below the knees, you can't hit a QB above the shoulders. You can't hit a QB too hard. All are 15 yard penalties. Which leads back to point #1. How many close games have been swayed by a TERRIBLE roughing the passer penalty. At least one game a weekend has a signifigant call involved revolving around an awful NFL rule putting skirts on its' players. The play has become less entertaining, and games are changed on awful rules. It makes viewing difficult and less fun. Better teams lose games on terrible rules.

That's not going to make anyone stop watching.

3. Over-saturation of the game. How many fans can honestly watch ESPN on Monday's? Starting at 3pm on Monday, you have wall to wall coverage of Monday Night Football. All week you have to listen to pundits make terrible predictions and act lik ethey know what is going to happen in a week to week league. Are the Cowboys still undefeated?

Oversaturation is far more of a problem for basketball than football. Five times as many games, and as such limited consequences from losing.

 

[FWBuckeye]

I think the NBA certainly has the potential to overtake the NFL somewhere down the road, but I think 3-4 years is maybe a bit too soon. I agree with all of the points you make though. I love the NBA right now. Very likeable superstars. There isn't anyone on that list that I dislike. There are so many players I can't stand in other sports, but the NBA definitely has a great group of young stars right now. I also love the one year of college ball rule. I think it helps out the players because they are more marketable when they come into the league after having one year of national exposure in college. I love the fact that it is becoming such a global game.

On the flip side, I hate that the NFL is trying to push their sport on countries that don't really respect it (UK). Why not have games in Japan instead? American football is becoming increasingly popular in Japan. Why not go after a market that has some knowledge of the sport and build on that instead of trying to go after a market that doesn't really like, respect, or know the sport? The NBA went after markets like China that grew a liking to the sport and then built on that. Now it's one of the most popular, if not the most popular, sport in the country. Also, the NFL is definitely becoming way too restrictive on what a player can do on the field. It's ridiculous that you have five players or more getting fined over the course of a weekend because of "illegal" hits. Give me a break. Let them play! Football is a violent sport. People are going to get hit hard and get hurt. It happens. Also regarding off the field conduct, I can understand trying to clean up the image of the league by punishing players that cross the line (in some cases, continuously). I completely agree with doing so, however some of the things they are doing are going a little too far. The New York Times had an article online recently about how the NFL is having players followed during their free time. They follow them to bars and clubs and count how many drinks the have, what women they talk to, ect. That is going a bit too far in my opinion.

Honestly I haven't followed the NFL as much this season as I have in the past. In previous years I would completely ignore basketball and hockey until January, now I find myself following both sports quite a bit more this year. I would like to think this is because my Cowboys have been under performing, but maybe it's for some of the reasons you cited.

 

[jwinslow]

The problems with the NBA are the same as the NFL at this point, more often than not, a small collection of teams win the championship, whereas the rest just fall to the side.

The 2nd place team in the NFL almost always misses the playoffs.

Superbowl champs
96 - Packers... good but fell far away from great
97/98 - Broncos... fell down to solid soon after title
99 - Rams... kept it up for a few years but completely crashed afterwards
00 - Ravens... always great D, never as dominant again though
01 - Pats
02 - Bucs - fell down considerably and are now building back up
03/04 Pats
05 - Steelers... consistently strong, not quite elite since
06 - Colts... consistently high, only time over the hump
07 - Giants... out of nowhere

Then look at the runners up
Falcons, Titans, Giants, Rams, Raiders, Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Pats

 

[BuckeyeBooks]

Nope.

Very well put. You took the word right out of my mouth.

 

[billmac91]

No.

Football as a sport is far more beloved, more central to american culture (growing up playing/going), and is fueled by an immensely popular college league.

I think I agree here but keep in mind, the NBA was king not too long ago though. Michael Jordan propelled the league above MLB and the NFL in his prime. I think Kobe, LeBron, and Chris Paul collectively could have the same impact.

Basketball has unfair stereotypes to overcome, is too long and inconsequential of a season, and is fueled by a college league which is ignored for the first 4 months.It's been like this for a long time. I'd say history directly refutes your point.

I think college becomes relevant again b/c players can no longer go right to the league. We at least get one college season, and hopefully a few March Madness games to get aquainted with the players before the jump to the NBA. I also think the season length does a great job of seperating the good/great teams from the pack. The NFL does not do this.

The turnover makes the NFL compelling. Every team has a chance every year, and a terrible franchise can suddenly be a contender in one off-season.

The turnover in personnel and contracts isn't very nice or loyal, but you don't get stuck with terrible players, let alone entire rosters worth like the Knicks.
That's not going to make anyone stop watching.Oversaturation is far more of a problem for basketball than football. Five times as many games, and as such limited consequences from losing.

When I was talking turnover, I wasn't really referencing rosters, but league standings. I agree, a fanbase can become excited any given year, but the play of the league has greatly diminished. Bad teams can make the playoffs based on a lucky season. The Patriots undefeated regular season record contradicts my stance, but I don't think a team like the 49'ers of the late 80's early 90's dominates nearly as much when you shorten the games so much.

And there just isn't any way to defend a player getting a 15 yard penalty for a hand slightly tapping a QB's helmet or a pass rusher wrapping a QB up and throwing him to the turf too hard. It's become embarrassing....

 

[DaytonBuck]

Is this for the US or the world?

 

[FWBuckeye]

One thing I would like to add though is that I would be at least a little concerned with top NBA stars going overseas. I think it's unlikely that many will, but it's still a cause for concern.

 

[billmac91]

Is this for the US or the world?

Predominately the US.

I think it helps the health of the league that the world has become more involved though. It increases the level of play and overall interest.

 

[jwinslow]

Another reason: fantasy basketball is painfully tedious. Fantasy football is an enormous american hobby, which further fuels the interest in the sport.

I think college vecomes relevant again b/c players can no longer go right to the league.

Not before March

We at least get one college season, and hopefully a few March Madness agmes to get aquanited with th eplayers before the jump to the NBA.

You will know who Oden, Mayo is, but I don't think that changes my point.

It's incredibly compelling to watch Missouri, Texas Tech, South Florida, and a host of other flashes in the pan, and do so in the middle of the season. College basketball simply is not as compelling or interesting to america unless it's a superpower program or close to March.

The depth of america's commitment to CFB leads to familiarity with a large volume of players. That extends to the NFL, and makes the draft quite an event nationwide, despite being an otherwise drawn out and boring event.

I also think the season length does a great job of seperating the good/great teams from the pack. The NFL does not do this.

It also gives a strong excuse to not watch any basketball until the playoffs.

When I was talking turnover, I wasn't really referencing rosters, but league standings. I agree, a fanbase can become excited any given year, but the play of the league has greatly diminished. Bad teams can make the playoffs based on a lucky season. The Patriots undefeated regular season record contradicts my stance, but I don't think a team lik ethe 49'ers of the late 80's early 90's dominates nearly as much when you shorten the games so much.

I don't think domination is necessary for intrigue, I'd argue the opposite in fact.

And there just isn't any way to defend a player getting a 15 yard penalty for a hand slightly tapping a QB's helmet or a pass rusher wrapping a QB up and throwing him to the turf too hard. It's become embarrassing....

Of course it's frustrating, but it simply isn't going to make someone stop watching games... any more than espn's unending list of idiocy is going to make us stop watching sports, even if they stuff pam ward or andre ware down our throats.

 

[billmac91]

Another reason: fantasy basketball is painfully tedious. Fantasy football is an enormous american hobby, which further fuels the interest in the sport.
Not before MarchYou will know who Oden, Mayo is, but I don't think that changes my point.

It's incredibly compelling to watch Missouri, Texas Tech, South Florida, and a host of other flashes in the pan, and do so in the middle of the season. College basketball simply is not as compelling or interesting to america unless it's a superpower program or close to March.It also gives a strong excuse to not watch any basketball until the playoffs.

Fantasy basketball has its highest particpation of all time this year. It is growing. I doubt it ever overtakes the NFL b/c you are right about the tediousness of it, but fanatsy baseball isn't any easier and is almost as popular as football. Fanatsy football only dominates because people don't have or want to spend the time nightly on baseball/basketball rosters. For people who get into fantasy sports, I think basketball and baseball are more fun and strategic than football.

For the die-hard sports fan, it is fun to watch an overall season of guys who would have gone staright to the league play a season of college ball. For the casual fan, it is great for them to get a taste in March. Just depends on what kind of fan you are, IMO.

And I agree pro-basketball has less interest on a game to game basis than the NFL. But then again, a 17 week NBA season with 16 games owuldn't make any sense either. NFL games week to week have more inherit importance, but for an overall season there is as much entertainment and great games to watch. Regular season match-ups like Cavs-Lakers or Kobe vs. Shaq creates a lot of interest.

Again, I think the NFL has a sizeable lead on the NBA right now, but the NFL continues to hurt thir product while the NBA is having a period of growth due to young talent and an ability to work out the "thuggery". One other great move by the NBA was to eliminate the constant complaining to officials. There isn't nearly as much bitching about calls, as say, 5 years ago. It makes games much more enjoyable.