(1) In analyzing a recruit, I always operate under the assumption that he is not going to sign with Ohio State.
(2) Then, I look for reasons why the recruit might be predisposed to sign with Ohio State (local kid, childhood favorite, from a pipeline school, legacy); if the Ohio State ties are strong enough (a Glenville kid, for example), then I change the assumption in favor of Ohio State unless there is some evidence to the contrary (Cordale Scott).
(3) If the kid does not have Buckeye ties, and most of the out-of-state kids do not, then I try to determine whether the kid is a "JT" recruit. If he isn't, then there is very little chance that he'll end up buying JT's "soft sell" approach. Read the kid's statements to the media, and try to imagine if he'd be a good fit for Ohio State. Is the kid quiet, humble, team-oriented ... or is he a "look at me" recruit who loves the attention? I know that some of you don't like to hear this (see the Tim Tebow threads), but if a recruit starts talking about "Christian values", then it's pretty safe to assume that he'd be a good fit at Ohio State.
(4) If the kid is a good "personality match", then I look at the competition. In the case of Joyner, the competition was (a) his childhood favorite, (b) much closer to his home, (c) able to sell immediate playing time, and (d) able to sell "return to greatness". It would be hard for any school to overcome that, and Ohio State could not. By the way, I'm not entirely convinced that LJ was a good fit with JT, but he did tone down his act quite a bit when he transferred to STA, and I do not think that he was "playing" the Buckeye staff.
(5) In summary, Ohio State will usually sign kids who (a) have strong pre-existing ties to Ohio State (most of the Ohio kids, legacy recruits like Duron Carter), (b) are "open" in their recruiting (no pre-determined favorite) and are "personality matches" with the Buckeye staff (Cameron Heyward, James Laurinaitis, Malcolm Jenkins), or (c) have Ohio State as their clear best offer (Kenneth Guiton, Orhian Johnson). And, believe it or not, sometimes JT and Company actually do out-work the competition, and sign kids like Michael Brewster, J.B. Shugarts, and Terrelle Pryor who don't really seem to fit the profile of the "typical" Buckeye recruit ... but remember, those guys are the exceptions, and not the rule.