Yep, the home team is favored.
-
New here? Register here now for access to all the forums, download game torrents, private messages, polls, Sportsbook, etc. Plus, stay connected and follow BP on Instagram @buckeyeplanet and Facebook.
- Thread starter BB73
- Start date
Not making more than my usual bet on this one. I may end up regretting it, but when the line is THIS out-of-whack, I get suspicious.
Upvote
0
- Illinois and their 111th ranked pass offense versus Michigan and their 117th ranked pass defense?
- Illinois is 5-3, with their 3 losses being vs Missouri, vs Ohio State, and at Michigan St. Three opponents that are a combined 23-3.
- Illinois is 5-3, with their 3 losses being vs Missouri, vs Ohio State, and at Michigan St. Three opponents that are a combined 23-3.
Upvote
0
Yertle
Pounding out aggression, turns into obsession
But Michigan's losses are to Penn State, Michigan State, and Iowa... also strong competition.
And they've beaten some good teams this year! Notre Dame... oops. I mean Indiana... um, never mind. I mean Connecticut... nope... ummm, UMass (or was that in basketball)... Well, they did manage to win their MAC game this year. So, they got that going for them, which is nice.
And they've beaten some good teams this year! Notre Dame... oops. I mean Indiana... um, never mind. I mean Connecticut... nope... ummm, UMass (or was that in basketball)... Well, they did manage to win their MAC game this year. So, they got that going for them, which is nice.
Upvote
0
Yertle;1804742; said:
I don't think I could call Penn State "strong" competition this year....
Upvote
0
DaddyBigBucks;1804479; said:
Amazingly enough 55% of the action is on scUM which would account for the line staying at -3.
I still say the Illinois team total will be the best bet when it comes out. It will have to be at about 25. For those unfamiliar with team totals it is a bet that, regardless of what else happens in the game, the team in question will score more or less than the total.
All I will say is I like the odds of any scUM BCS AQ opponent going over 25 as long as weather isn't an issue.
If this is some kind of elaborate Vegas headfake line, then oh well. They got me (again).
Upvote
0
The line seems crazy, which often means it is a trap.
The over seems like a first bet at first glance, but they had a number of totals around or below 58: UConn 40, ND 54, MSU 51, Iowa 56, PSU 62.
Illinois is a lot better defense than PSU. I see this playing out closer to PSU than MSU.
The over seems like a first bet at first glance, but they had a number of totals around or below 58: UConn 40, ND 54, MSU 51, Iowa 56, PSU 62.
Illinois is a lot better defense than PSU. I see this playing out closer to PSU than MSU.
Upvote
0
jwinslow;1804770; said:
While Illinois held us to 24 points, that was at Illinois, and it seemed Pryor was being held back a bit because of his leg later in the game, and if I recall it was windy as hell. Illinois gave up 26 at Michigan State and even 22 at home against Northern Illinois. Their defense is not bad, but I think Michigan will put up 28+ on them at the Pig House.
Michigan defense is really bad...Scheelhaase will light them up. They scored 33 at PSU, and 43 and 44 against Indiana and Purdue. Michigan, in their last four home games, has given up 37 to UMass, 21 to BGSU, 34 to MSU, and 38 to Iowa. No way Illinois should be held to less than 30, and I can see Illinois scoring 38+ points. A 34-24 Illinois game is right at 58 points, and I think both teams score more...
Upvote
0
Just a quick .02 on the "trap" aspect of this line;
-Anytime it seems like easy money be careful
-However, the fucking usually comes with reverse line movement (i.e. all the action is on big public favorite and the line keeps going down)
-Vegas is happy to to take lopsided action on a game if they think they are on the right side of it and the public is heavy on UM-3. Just sayin.
-Also, a lot of casual bettors will look no further than Illinois W/L record, saw scUM play at night last week and figure they'll bounce back this week, at home, good offense etc etc etc. In other words most people on this site have a much better knowledge of how scUM will perform in a game than the "public" does and THAT is who you are betting against if you do it right, not Vegas.
All that said, no one knows for sure. Put yourself on the play you think has the best % chance of happening and bet only what you can afford to lose.
-Anytime it seems like easy money be careful
-However, the fucking usually comes with reverse line movement (i.e. all the action is on big public favorite and the line keeps going down)
-Vegas is happy to to take lopsided action on a game if they think they are on the right side of it and the public is heavy on UM-3. Just sayin.
-Also, a lot of casual bettors will look no further than Illinois W/L record, saw scUM play at night last week and figure they'll bounce back this week, at home, good offense etc etc etc. In other words most people on this site have a much better knowledge of how scUM will perform in a game than the "public" does and THAT is who you are betting against if you do it right, not Vegas.
All that said, no one knows for sure. Put yourself on the play you think has the best % chance of happening and bet only what you can afford to lose.
Upvote
0
jwinslow;1804770; said:
Vegas knows that the Zooker is still in charge....apparently they like RichRod moreso than Zooker.
Upvote
0
I'm not calling them a great unit, just a lot better than the reeling Nits.
It shouldn't happen but when you look at the numbers, 58 is not a remotely safe bet.
MSU missed that mark by 7 pts.
ND missed that mark by 7 pts
IOW missed that mark by 2 pts
PSU vs UM cleared it by 4 pts, and that was an OVER better's perfect game with quick scoring by UM's offense and their typical ineptitude from their defense.
Upvote
0