First post from this Horn, and I didn't read the whole thread, though I made it to page 25. My thoughts . . .
I think this will be a low-scoring game, something like 17-13, with the edge going to Ohio St. because of the home field. It's early, but at this point, I think y'all will and should be favored by 5-6 pts.
A lot of you seem to think your offense has turned the corner and will have too many weapons for us to handle . . . you may be right, but I suggest that you not get your hopes up too high based on two good offensive games. As we both proved, Michigan's D is hardly anything to write home about, and Okie St.'s D was just plain horrible. Up until the Michigan game last year, Ohio State has been known around the country for three years as the bet-on-the-under team . . . great defense and special teams, terrible offense.
And the defense Texas will field will be better than any you faced last year. I know we didn't do well in the Rose Bowl, and we played one terrible half against Okie St., but other than that, this was a very good defense last year. They made big plays and stepped up when it counted (2nd half against Okie St. forcing 10 straight 3 & outs) (4th quarter against Michigan). With 9 starters back (10 if you count DE Mike Williams), it will be better, even without DJ. And the kick coverage that plagued us in the Rose Bowl has been maybe the #1 priority of the offseason, so you know it will be better. This unit was ranked higher than y'all by one spot in scoring defense last year (18 vs. 19), so we can play some D, too.
My worries are on the offensive side. Greg Davis' offenses have flopped time and time again in big games against good defenses (see OU 2000-2004). And I think this is a very bad matchup for us. We will have someone come through at RB, don't doubt that for a minute. Selvin Young is just one possiblity. We are loaded with young talent at the position, and with so many options, someone will step up. And our OL is going to be one of the best in football. But from reading on here, it seems that the weakness of your D is a lack of a 2nd good CB, and a lack of a good pass rush from the DE position. I don't have a whole lot of faith in Young's ability to exploit that weakness, even though our receivers should be improved. Our bread 'n butter zone read rushing attack plays right into your strength which is the LB's and S's.
We do have some other weapons, though, and I think we need to run a lot of misdirection to use your team's speed against you. Despite the rawness of the skill players, this will be the fastest offense Texas has ever fielded. Vince Young, Ramonce Taylor, Jamaal Charles, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley . . . all those guys have the speed to take one the distance any time they touch it. Since I think we will have trouble sustaining long drives against you, to have a shot, we are going to need some big plays, and luckily we have some guys who should be able to do just that.
We are going to have to open it up and take some chances on O or we will get shut out like against OU, but Vince seems to make a couple of throws every game, e.g. forcing it downfield into triple coverage, that make you just shake your head and wonder what the hell is he thinking? . . . and if he starts throwing interceptions, it could be a long day.
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2004 Fun Stat
Ohio State Offense: 320.8 yds./game
Ohio State Defense: 332.0 yds./game