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Game Thread Game Two: #1 Ohio State 24, #2 Texas 7 (9/9/06)

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xray

BuckeyeNation27 said:
:roll2:

xrr2ys8.jpg
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That is too much buckeye.
you didnt say anything him assuming his assumption is based on mathmatical garbage.
:osu: :osu:
 
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xrayrandy said:
That statement had nothing to do with a 50% probability. But rather, the statistics related to something that has already happened is irrelevant to what happens in the future.

For example if the odds of a team going undefeated is 10% a year then the odds of going undefeted in consecutuve years is 1% (0.1 x 0.1). But a team that was undefeated in a previous year that has a 10% chance of going undefeated the following year, has a 10% chance of being undefeated for two straight years.

At this point I am assuming that the persons who don't get these facts never attended a university, at least I hope not.
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Randy, honey, I love your rock hard statistical evidence. You're education in animal husbandry is exactly what a hungry woman seeks. I'll be in the "box seats" and don't forget the smokes and the Margerrittas.

Marge "I'm not dead Yet" Schott
 
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Steve19 said:
Originally Posted by xrayrandy
The odds of going undefeated two years in a row are irrelevant.

The odds right now of Texas going undefeated two years in a row is identical to going undefeated one year.

Having heads one time you flip the coin does not influence what happens next time.


Uh, well, I guess your avatar is half right.

The probability of winning one game is 50% holding that both sides are equally capable of winning. That's a big if. Even if Texas and its opponents had an equal chance of winning every game, the probability of winning two independent events would be the probability of game A times the probability of game B.

P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B)

The probability of winning three games would be

P(A and B and C) = P(A) · P(B) · P(C)

Consequently, X-Ray, the probability of winning multiple games decreases with each game (i.e., 50%, 25%, 12.5%, etc.).

I have been wondering for some time, how many x-rays have you had?
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Thanks for those who commented on this post. I should have written this better but my calculations illustrate exactly what I wanted them to illustrate.

X-Ray, indicated that (a) the chances of going undefeated two years in a row were the same as winning in one year and (b) he used flipping a coin to illustrate indepence of events (a 50% probability except perhaps in the wacky world of X-Ray statistics).

I wanted to illustrate three points.
  1. Unless it is impossible to lose a game, the probability of winning a number of games in a row decreases with each game because one has to multiply the probability of each game against the other games.
  2. Texas' chances of winning games this year is not the same as last year because neither it nor its opponents are the same teams and have the same probability of winning.
  3. Even if a team has the same probability of going undefeated one year and the next, going undefeated two years in a row would therefore be less than one year.
My argument holds whether you talk about going two games undefeated, two seasons undefeated, or if you change the probabilities from 50% to whatever.

Of course, in arguing that a team has an equal chance, X-Ray argues that one game and one season is independent of the next, which is not realistic. Teams learn, players get injured, players leave early for the NFL! My point was only to illustrate that even in the most simple way of thinking about a mutual probability event, X-Ray's argument is not tenable.
 
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Link

With starters set, depth the focus

By ERIC RANSOM

Special to the Star-Telegram

2144250-928743.jpg

GETTY IMAGES/STEPHEN DUNN
Safety Michael Griffin, left, is a three-year letterman for the Longhorns.

AUSTIN -- The Texas Longhorns closed fall camp fine-tuning their pass coverage. Could that be a sign the two young quarterbacks are tearing it up?
More likely, it's so the coaches can figure out their secondary before the opening game Saturday.
The starters are set. Michael and Marcus Griffin man the safety spots, while Tarell Brown and Aaron Ross open at cornerback after sharing a spot last season.
Replacing two NFL draft picks is a tall order. Thorpe award winner Michael Huff and Cedric Griffin started 95 games between them in the past four years. The real issue early in the season might be depth.
As two-a-days close, a crop of freshmen and five players with experience look to be the backups in the defensive backfield.
"We're about 8-to-9 deep in players, including the freshmen," Marcus Griffin said. "I see a bright future for everybody."
Several of the freshmen made their presence known during the team's scrimmage last week.
Robert Joseph leaped over Billy Pittman and took the ball from the receiver's hands for an interception. Freshmen Chykie Brown and Deon Beasley also gained positive reviews.
"They're really athletic," Texas coach Mack Brown said. "Robert continues to make plays like that [interception] and Deon and Chykie both look like they might have a chance to play this year."
While Joseph and Brown could serve as backups this season, there's typically a learning curve with freshmen.
"I remember hearing the fans in my first game," Michael Griffin said. "All I could think was, 'I don't want to mess up.'"
The forgotten group might be the five players in between the starters and the freshmen. Ryan Palmer and Brandon Foster of Arlington Bowie served as backups last season, with Foster playing in all 13 games as a cornerback.
Three players are competing for the two backup slots at safety. Matt Melton and Erick Jackson saw time last season as backups, and redshirt freshman Ishie Oduegwu intercepted a pass during last week's scrimmage.
Regardless of the order on the depth chart, the Longhorns will need depth to maintain the momentum built by last season's strong secondary. The Longhorns' cornerbacks and safeties accounted for eight of the team's 11 interceptions last season. It's a number they'd like to see improve.
Still, playing the pass was Texas' strength on defense last season. Opponents averaged 172.0 yards in the air, with the unit allowing only 10 TD passes.
The only breakdown for the secondary came against USC, when Matt Leinart threw for 365 yards.
Leinart's only touchdown pass, a 22-yard throw to Dwayne Jarrett, knocked out two Texas defensive backs on a collision at the goal line. With Tarell Brown and Michael Griffin out of the game in the fourth quarter, Ross and Marcus Griffin were called on to step in.
This season, Texas' secondary has plenty of bodies. Figuring out which ones can create depth has been the challenge during fall camp.
 
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Link

Crowder early to rise this year
Senior defensive end hitting the film room so he can hit more QBs

By Ryan Killian

With an imposing 6-foot-4-inch, 270-pound frame, he doesn't appear to have many avian qualities.

But give Texas defensive end Tim Crowder a chance to get in the film room, and he epitomizes one of the finely feathered species.

"I'm always one of the early birds," Crowder said.

Even against North Texas, Crowder got an early start. The day before Texas held its open scrimmage, he was already making plans to start studying up for the Mean Green.

Even if UNT isn't expected to compete, the senior still found plenty of motivation. One of his friends from high school in Tyler plays for the Mean Green. Redshirt freshman Antoine Bush is a defensive back and expected to see some playing time. Whether or not he gets in the game, Crowder had one prediction.

"There'll be a lot of trash talking going on," he said.

Most Texas fans are looking past the likely dismantling of UNT and looking forward to the heavyweight bout with Ohio State on September 9. Crowder refuses to look that far ahead, but based on what he's seen so far, he's excited about the team's chances this year.

"I really feel we can defend [the nation title]," he said.

If they do, you can expect Crowder to play a big role.

He's made 34 consecutive starts and was selected to the All-Big 12 team last year by the league's coaches.

The selection didn't come as a surprise after Crowder made 50 tackles during the championship run, including nine behind the line of scrimmage and three sacks.

While the defense may not represent a question mark for the team, the quarterback situation has merited national attention as redshirt freshman Colt McCoy and true freshman Jevan Snead compete for the job. Far from worried about who's under center, Crowder just enjoys watching them battle for the job.

"It's very exciting to be part of," he said.

He should also be excited to be an integral part in what coaches and players are already saying could be one of the program's best defensive units ever. Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik wants to see more turnovers this year, and Crowder's been known to jar a few balls loose in his career. He's forced four fumbles during his three years as a starter and also picked off a pair of passes - a statistic Chizik is determined to see improve after last year's defense dropped 23 interceptions.

Saturday fans get their first chance to see whether or not the defense is all it's cracked up to be. Key ingredients are certainly there

It's got size.

It's got speed.

And it's got Crowder.
 
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Steve19 said:
Thanks for those who commented on this post. I should have written this better but my calculations illustrate exactly what I wanted them to illustrate.

X-Ray, indicated that (a) the chances of going undefeated two years in a row were the same as winning in one year and (b) he used flipping a coin to illustrate indepence of events (a 50% probability except perhaps in the wacky world of X-Ray statistics).

I wanted to illustrate three points.
  1. Unless it is impossible to lose a game, the probability of winning a number of games in a row decreases with each game because one has to multiply the probability of each game against the other games.
  2. Texas' chances of winning games this year is not the same as last year because neither it nor its opponents are the same teams and have the same probability of winning.
  3. Even if a team has the same probability of going undefeated one year and the next, going undefeated two years in a row would therefore be less than one year.
My argument holds whether you talk about going two games undefeated, two seasons undefeated, or if you change the probabilities from 50% to whatever.

Of course, in arguing that a team has an equal chance, X-Ray argues that one game and one season is independent of the next, which is not realistic. Teams learn, players get injured, players leave early for the NFL! My point was only to illustrate that even in the most simple way of thinking about a mutual probability event, X-Ray's argument is not tenable.
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i think the rest if us knew that... it's only tenable in X-ray's head, where only numbers exist, and not little things like FACTS... :)
 
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Steve19 said:
I wanted to illustrate three points.
  1. Unless it is impossible to lose a game, the probability of winning a number of games in a row decreases with each game because one has to multiply the probability of each game against the other games.
  2. Texas' chances of winning games this year is not the same as last year because neither it nor its opponents are the same teams and have the same probability of winning.
  3. Even if a team has the same probability of going undefeated one year and the next, going undefeated two years in a row would therefore be less than one year.
Click to expand...

I think xray is well aware of all 3 points. He's was merely trying to state that past events don't affect future odds.

While that's true in the world of truly random coin flipping, the real world of college football is a little different. Players and coaches know that they won the NC last year. The pressure is off, lots of people blow smoke up their butts, and there's a tendency to not work as hard. I'm not saying those things will definitely affect the Longhorns this year, I'm just stating that real world historical factors affect human behaviors.
 
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Whoever wrote that article should have done their research. Texas has had closed practice since last year when a fan post pix on line of a nasty injury before the coaches could contact the kids parents. Texas has had 3(?) open practices for fan appreciation days this summer.
 
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this is too funny not to post...A guy in the office today, who is obsessed with the weather, has informed me that it will be raining on the 9th in Austin....While this is clearly way to far away to accurate I would laugh very hard if it is 85 and wet
 
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this is too funny not to post...A guy in the office today, who is obsessed with the weather, has informed me that it will be raining on the 9th in Austin....While this is clearly way to far away to accurate I would laugh very hard if it is 85 and wet
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:lol: Thus the arguement will shift from the "Texas Heat" to the "Texas rain!"
 
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