If Illinois' play were solely exemplified by the game against Wisconsin, they would be worth taking very seriously. Against a top-20 ranked team (#17 BCS) they put up better numbers on the scoreboard in the first half. They forced Wisconsin, at home, to launch a comeback while working without PJ Hill. Notably, this took Wisconsin out of their running game on two counts - the catch-up mode and the use of a back-up RB. Notable because Wisconsin did not put up huge rushing numbers yesterday. They also had poor returns on their 3rd down conversions, 4 of 15.
Now, I am not trying above to build Illinois up to be something they are not. However, noone should discount what the Illini have done in winning or losing efforts. One interesting statistical rating that tells us something about Illinois is, their Total Defensive ranking. They are 39th in the nation, giving up an average of 300 yds per game. This is not the type of rating one would normally associate with a pushover, especially one that has a season record of 2 Wins to 7 Losses. In fact, with two exceptions (FIU and Wyoming) every other team ranked above them in Total defense has a .500 or better W-L record. (And many below them in the rankings are also better served in the W-L columns than the Illini).
So, what might help us understand the achilles heel, what has been going on in Illinois, stopping them from balancing that win-loss sheet?
Part of it surely is the ball security shown by Juice Williams, and his ability to avoid the sack. He comes in with 9 TDs and 8 INTs, he also has been sacked 21 times in 9 games. That is a huge number of times to meet the turf.
So, what I come up with the following.
Williams is an exciting but vulnerable player. He either gets himself into positions that his Offensive line cannot handle (hence the sacks) or he throws under pressure or ill-advisedly (hence the interceptions).
The Illini Defensive ranking likely means they will not be a pushover. But, as long as Ohio State takes care of the ball (unlike Wisconsin early in the going yesterday) this should end up with a high margin of victory for the Buckeyes.
A 35-7 win would not surprise me.
