Game Thread Game Eight: Ohio State 45, Minnesota 31 (final)

[BUCKYLE]

I think our d will be up for this one. they are the best run, if not overall defense minny will play this year. it wont be a blowout, but a w nonetheless.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

I wouldn't use our offensive troubles at Penn State several weeks back as a barometer for playing at Minnesota. The Metronome (yeah, it's misspelled on purpose) is not going to be near as insane as Crappy Valley was. Minnesota's defense is nowhere near Penn State's...they've given up 35+ points in three of their last four games, including 35 to Purdue and 38 to Wisconsin at home. They rank #57 in total defense, #70 in rushing defense, #54 in passing defense, and #59 in scoring defense (25.4 ppg). Those defensive stats are skewed due to their playing offensive powerhouses such as Tulsa and Florida Atlantic. I would like to think we can put up around 30 points on them.

Their offense is good against bad-to-mediocre defenses, while so-so against a decent defense (23 at Michigan) and inept against a solid defense (14 at Penn State). In fact, at Penn State, aside from a 21-yard run by Gary Russell, the RBs had a total of 80 yards on 23 carries (3.5 ypc). If we play rush defense like we have all year, then Minnesota will be forced to throw the ball, which will allow our DL to tee off on Cupito. We should keep them under 20 points fairly easily.

 

[BuckeyeSoldier]

Actually, I'm feeling more optimistic about this game than I have most of the games this season. Minny is completely one-dimensional and you simply can't survive that way against top flight defenses. I predict they score 10 or less on offense.

Here goes my Nostradomus moment for the year, I see this game as the one where everyone in buckeye nation gets happy all of a sudden because the offense looked like it had a clue. I am calling for a blow out. Whether deserved or not I expect a LOT of praise for TS, TG, and TP after this game.

Final score: tOSU 45 Minny 7

 

[buckeyeboy]

This will be the toughest road test yet.

I don't know if I agree with this. I think the PSU game was by far the toughest road test. Not only do I think that PSU is a better team, evidenced by the fact that PSU thrashed Minnesota when the two teams played, but I also think that the atmosphere at PSU was more against us than it will be at Minnesota. At PSU, they had the whiteout, their fans were going nuts b/c they were still an undefeated team after several years of bad football, their stadium holds more people, and from what I hear (although I've not been to either place), PSU's stadium is much more conducive to creating a hostile environment for a visiting team (e.g., more crowd noise) relative to the Metrodome, which is designed to accommodate pro football and baseball also.

 

[Bucktastic]

I finally complete my circle of going to all 11 Big Ten venues with this one. Anyone else heading to the game??

Hopefully we get another REF crew for this game. B/c they are the only ones who even kept it close for a while against our last opponent.

With Teddy running NORTH-SOUTH again......this one could get ugly for Minnihaha.

 

[Zurp]

The way I see it, Minnesota's offensive strength is their running game, and Ohio State's defensive strength is against the run. I know it's the old cliche, but a good defense will typically beat a good offense. Ohio State won't necessarily remain #1 in the country against the run (I'm assuming they climbed back to #1 after Nebraska gave up 1000 yards against Misery), but they should win this game. Force Minnesota to throw the ball, and they get a positive turnover margin, and win the game fairly easily. But if Minnesota can run get 5+ yards on first downs, and Troy Smith starts to think he needs to make plays, it's going to be a tough game.

I predict that the offense still hasn't found it's way through the hedge maze, but they put together a couple of good drives. The defense gives up a couple of long runs to Minnesota, but stops them for the most part. Final score: Ohio State 27 - Minnesota 17.

 

[ntd]

If Minny gets some good play from its QB they have a shot...Wheelwright is a good looking WR and their running game is scary. Maroney and Russell have the talent to put up 100 on the Bucks, but they'll have to get some good QB play to do it.

OSU 28, Minny 14

 

[Buckeye86]

I think this will be a fun fun game to watch with our linebackers absolutely smashing Minnie's run game and our skill positions running wild on the astroturf.

I don't see our defense giving up more than three scores (if that) and like I said, Teddy ballgame and Santonio should have fun on the astroturf.

41-10 Ohio State.

 

[Taosman]

Cupito has been beat up. How is his health, now?

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

DBB's Weekly Statistical Breakdown

It's time for my weakly comparison of how the Bucks and their opponent are performing relative to their opponents' averages.

Based on your feedback, this week I'll focus on differential output with head-head figured out. In other words, factor the game against you OUT of your opponents' averages, and how did you do compared to THAT?


For comparison purposes, I'll also post the numbers that include the head-head matchups.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE GAINS/SCORES

• 103.44 yards more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored in)
• 11.43 points more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored in)

but,

• 118.94 yards more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored out)
• 13.18 points more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored out)

MINNESOTA DEFENSE GIVES UP

• 21.53 yards fewer than opponents gain on average (head-head factored in)
• 3.85 points fewer than opponents score on average (head-head factored in)

but,

• 24.75 yards fewer than opponents gain on average (head-head factored out)
• 4.40 points fewer than opponents score on average (head-head factored out)

.................................................. ..................................

OSU OFFENSE GAINS/SCORES

• 11.61 yards more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored in)
• 5.96 points more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored in)

but,

• 13.30 yards more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored out)
• 6.93 points more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored out)

OSU DEFENSE GIVES UP

• 177.00 yards fewer than opponents gain on average (head-head factored in)
• 18.78 points fewer than opponents score on average (head-head factored in)

but,

• 204.21 yards fewer than opponents gain on average (head-head factored out)
• 21.70 points fewer than opponents score on average (head-head factored out)

.................................................. ..................................................

Things to note:

• Minnesota's offense, as expected, looks good
• Minnesota has played one defense with a pulse (PSU), and managed 287 yards and 14 points against them
• This just in, the OSU defense is pretty good
• Our opponents to date average 459.07 yards in games NOT against us. That is roughly 30 yards less than Minne's average.

Now let's use these numbers to attempt a comparison. Recall that Method 1 takes each team's Defensive average and adds the other team's differential offense. Method 2 takes each team's Offensive average and subtracts the other team's differential defense.

Method 1:

Minnesota yards: 254.86 (avg OSU D) + 118.94 (Minnesota O) = 373.80 Yards
Minnesota points: 14.57 (avg OSU D) + 13.18 (Minnesota O) = 27.75 Points

OSU yards: 371.43 + 13.30 = 384.73 yards
OSU points: 25.43 + 6.93 = 32.36 points

OSU Wins: 32-28 (385 yards to 374)

Method 2:

OSU yards: 376.57 (avg O) - 24.75 (Minnesota D) = 351.82 Yards
OSU points: 28.57 (avg score) - 4.40 (Minnesota D) = 24.17 Points

Minnesota yards: 490.29 - 204.21 = 286.08 yards
Minnesota points: 36.57 - 21.70 = 14.87 points

OSU Wins: 24-15 (352 yards to 286)



Either way, when you factor in the Metrodome advantage (it is still a road game), this figures to be a tight game.



But now let's consider the difference in...

Schedule Strength.

OSU Opponents (head-head factored out):

OFFENSE

• 459.07 ypg
• 36.27 ppg

DEFENSE

• 363.27 ypg
• 21.64 ppg

Minnesota Opponents (head-head factored out):

OFFENSE

• 396.18 ypg
• 29.83 ppg

DEFENSE

• 371.35 ypg
• 23.39 ppg

UPSHOT: OSU has faced slightly better defenses, but MUCH better offenses than what Minnesota has faced. This fact is worth at least another touchdown.
..........................................................................................
It has reached the point in the season where it should be pointed out that these stats judge a team's entire body of work. The analysis to this point has not considered how good each team is RIGHT NOW. So consider this:

• Under Tressel, OSU peaks late in the season
• Under Mason, Minnesota peaks early
• Minnesota's has not had > 100 yards of differential offense since their 2 OT game against Purdue. They built their diff. off. numbers on Tulsa, Colorado State and Florida Atlantic.

The general trend that this seems to show might be offset by the fact that Minnesota just had a bye week, and Maroney will be more rested than at any time since the start of the season.

But then, a one-dimensional rushing offense isn't exactly a good match-up against the OSU defense.

Bucks by > 2 touchdowns

 

[Taosman]

Maroney will be more rested. Cupito will be rested, but how will the shoulder be for passing?

If they have to totally relie on their run game and get no help from their passing game will it be enough?

Minnie hasn't had a bye week in years! How sharp will they be?

Too many questions on their side to pick them in this game!

 

[osugrad21]

Buckeyes vs. Brookhaven

I see this as a close game until the late 3rd quarter when the depth starts to take its toll...the best way to attack a fast defense is straight up the gut. If Minny can establish an inside threat, various other seams begin to open...and the game is shortened. Offensively, I see the Bucks pounding Minny with the run which may make this the fastest game in B10 history :) Minny has given up over 4 yards/carry and 12 TDs on the ground. Just enough passing will be in there to keep the defense honest, but I'm not guessing on much of an air attack.

This game is close enough to let the offensive critics complain, but controlled enough to be a satisfying victory.

tOSU 24-13

 

[BuckeyeNation27]

I'm not gonna go as in depth as DBB, I'll just post a score.

OSU: 7 7 10 7 - 31
Minn: 3 7 3 10 - 23

 

[crazybuckfan40]

With the road factor, I think that we will be able to take care of business. PSU was a much tougher place to play and it also came after a bye week. I also think the O' will be able to move the ball on thier D'.

 

[Buckeye86]

I just realized I predicted the same score against Minnie as the Indiana game... oh well, I'm standing by it!