Fantasy Football Advice

[jwinslow]

I tried Welker/Crabtree, they wouldn't go for that. They start harvin more often than welker, I might try again after this week, they have 2 starting WRs out on byes.

 

[Mr_Burns]

I need some thoughts on who I should hold onto in my keeper league. There are quite a few good running backs going back into the draft this year because we can only keep them for 3 years (this will be year 4). Standard keeper rules apply--if you keep someone in a particular round, that person replaces your pick for the round. The first two keepers are free, the third costs $5.

My no-brainer is keeping Aaron Rodgers with a 13th round pick.

I'm on the fence about the following 3:

Knowshon Moreno - 3rd Round
Donald Brown - 7th Round
Jerome Harrison - 16th Round


I have ruled out keeping the following (feel free to let me know if you think I should keep any of these people):

Santonio Holmes - 3rd (4 game suspension)
Bernard Berrian - 5th
Greg Olsen - 6th
Fred Jackson 9th
NYG Defense 10th
Glen Coffee 11th
Brady Quinn 12th
Patrick Crayton 15th

I finished in 2nd place last year, so I will have the 2nd to last pick in the 3rd round. My concern is that most of the good running backs will be gone by then, and Moreno might be a good value there, if he can stay healthy.

Edit - I should have mentioned that all picks from the first 2 rounds automatically go back into the draft each year.

 

[Bucklion]

I need some thoughts on who I should hold onto in my keeper league. There are quite a few good running backs going back into the draft this year because we can only keep them for 3 years (this will be year 4). Standard keeper rules apply--if you keep someone in a particular round, that person replaces your pick for the round. The first two keepers are free, the third costs $5.

My no-brainer is keeping Aaron Rodgers with a 13th round pick.

I'm on the fence about the following 3:

Knowshon Moreno - 3rd Round
Donald Brown - 7th Round
Jerome Harrison - 16th Round


I have ruled out keeping the following (feel free to let me know if you think I should keep any of these people):

Santonio Holmes - 3rd (4 game suspension)
Bernard Berrian - 5th
Greg Olsen - 6th
Fred Jackson 9th
NYG Defense 10th
Glen Coffee 11th
Brady Quinn 12th
Patrick Crayton 15th

I finished in 2nd place last year, so I will have the 2nd to last pick in the 3rd round. My concern is that most of the good running backs will be gone by then, and Moreno might be a good value there, if he can stay healthy.

Edit - I should have mentioned that all picks from the first 2 rounds automatically go back into the draft each year.

Moreno is a human injury magnet...no way I would blow a 3rd on him. Harrison with a 16th seems like a no-lose proposition to me...if he has a couple of huge games, or if Hardesty gets hurt...he's your guy. Brown is also good with a 7th, though he still appears to be 2nd in the pecking order...for now, anyway.

The rest I would let go...Coffee retired, Jackson is hurt, Olsen will be a bust this year, and you can get better in the 5th than Berrian.

 

[Mr_Burns]

Moreno is a human injury magnet...no way I would blow a 3rd on him. Harrison with a 16th seems like a no-lose proposition to me...if he has a couple of huge games, or if Hardesty gets hurt...he's your guy. Brown is also good with a 7th, though he still appears to be 2nd in the pecking order...for now, anyway.

The rest I would let go...Coffee retired, Jackson is hurt, Olsen will be a bust this year, and you can get better in the 5th than Berrian.

Thanks for the input. I was leaning towards keeping Brown over Moreno because he's a much better value in the 7th, especially because I think they will throw to him out of the backfield quite a bit. I took Moreno that early last year as a bit of a reach, and also because a lot of the best backs in the league were keepers on other teams. Harrison with a 16th makes a lot of sense, especially in a league where we can start 2 RBs and a flex player.

I'll look tomorrow at what running backs are going back into the draft and which are being kept, but hopefully there will be some better options than Moreno available in the 3rd round.

On a side note, my league added a few wrinkles to our format that I think will improve things. We added a little bit to the entry fee and added the $5 fee for the 3rd keeper so we could have a $10 payout to the person with the highest point total each week. That way, if someone is out of the running by the 8th or 9th week, it still keeps them interested if their shitty team puts up a really high score one week. Also, we decided to give a $50 payout to the regular season champion since the playoffs can be such a crapshoot. One bad week can erase an entire season of good drafting and team management. That's neither here nor there, but I just thought I'd share in case any of you were looking for ways to keep people in your leagues interested.

 

[BlufftonBuckeye]

I'd keep Harrison or Brown.

The Colts are not intending to pay Addai very much on his next contract, so unless he has a huge start to the season expect Brown to end up the featured back, or very close to it, buy the midpoint of the season.

Stay away from Moreno, like it was said before, he's an injury magnet.

 

[Mr_Burns]

Here's the trouble:

I need to draft a featured back, and I draft 11th in the first round. The following running backs (ranked higher than Moreno) will not be avaiable due to other teams keeping them:

Chris Johnson
Michael Turner
Ray Rice
DeAngelo Williams
Cedric Benson
Rashard Mendenhall
Shonn Greene
Jamaal Charles
Beanie Wells
Ronnie Brown
LeSean McCoy
Jonathon Stewart

So the only RBs ranked ahead of Moreno that are still available to take at all are:

Adrian Peterson - will be gone by my pick
MJD - gone
Frank Gore - gone
Steven Jackson - gone
Ryan Grant
Ryan Mathews
Pierre Thomas
Joseph Addai

And those last 4 will most likely be gone by the 3rd round, anyway. So in a normal draft, Moreno would be a huge reach in the 3rd round, but in this keeper league, it's almost a given that he'll be gone by then. It sounds crazy, but after looking at all the running backs that won't be available, I'm leaning towards keeping Moreno with a late 3rd rounder.

 

[powerlifter]

I'd rather have Addai then Moreno. Moreno will more then likely be hit and miss with injuries. I wouldn't take Moreno high (probably the only way i'd take him at all is being high) Not to mention JM's offense isn't going to be putting up big numbers anytime soon. Might be worth looking into Ahmad Bradshaw if you can steal him imo..I picked him up pretty late. Jacobs just isn't what he was. Bradshaw runs hard

 

[Bucklion]

Here's the trouble:

I need to draft a featured back, and I draft 11th in the first round. The following running backs (ranked higher than Moreno) will not be avaiable due to other teams keeping them:

Chris Johnson
Michael Turner
Ray Rice
DeAngelo Williams
Cedric Benson
Rashard Mendenhall
Shonn Greene
Jamaal Charles
Beanie Wells
Ronnie Brown
LeSean McCoy
Jonathon Stewart

So the only RBs ranked ahead of Moreno that are still available to take at all are:

Adrian Peterson - will be gone by my pick
MJD - gone
Frank Gore - gone
Steven Jackson - gone
Ryan Grant
Ryan Mathews
Pierre Thomas
Joseph Addai

And those last 4 will most likely be gone by the 3rd round, anyway. So in a normal draft, Moreno would be a huge reach in the 3rd round, but in this keeper league, it's almost a given that he'll be gone by then. It sounds crazy, but after looking at all the running backs that won't be available, I'm leaning towards keeping Moreno with a late 3rd rounder.

Christ he already has a hamstring injury that might keep him out the rest of the preseason. I can't even imagine you would want to blow a 3rd rounder on that. I see what you're saying, completely, but hell I drafted 12/12 in my pay league last year and won it by starting with receivers and getting a good QB. You can probably get an elite QB or an elite receiver in round 3, or at the very least Gates or whatever TE you want. I don't think RBs are nearly the must-haves in rounds 1-3 that they used to be, with the obvious guys being the exceptions of course...I won that other league with Phillip Rivers, Andre Johnson, and late round gems with Shiancoe and Steve Smith (NYG). My RBs were average at best, and I picked up Jamaal Charles on the waiver wire halfway through the season to take me home. Your team bro, I just hate to see you get roped with a guy who tears a muscle picking up the phone.

 

[Piney]

Here's the trouble:

I need to draft a featured back, and I draft 11th in the first round. The following running backs (ranked higher than Moreno) will not be avaiable due to other teams keeping them:

Chris Johnson
Michael Turner
Ray Rice
DeAngelo Williams
Cedric Benson
Rashard Mendenhall
Shonn Greene
Jamaal Charles
Beanie Wells
Ronnie Brown
LeSean McCoy
Jonathon Stewart

So the only RBs ranked ahead of Moreno that are still available to take at all are:

Adrian Peterson - will be gone by my pick
MJD - gone
Frank Gore - gone
Steven Jackson - gone
Ryan Grant
Ryan Mathews
Pierre Thomas
Joseph Addai

And those last 4 will most likely be gone by the 3rd round, anyway. So in a normal draft, Moreno would be a huge reach in the 3rd round, but in this keeper league, it's almost a given that he'll be gone by then. It sounds crazy, but after looking at all the running backs that won't be available, I'm leaning towards keeping Moreno with a late 3rd rounder.

Brown or Harrison is the smart play. And in today's NFL fantasy leagues you DON'T need a franchise running back (as long as you have a normal scoring system)

And Moreno isn't good enough to even be considered a franchise running back (for fantasy). Stack up on stud WRs and then take a bunch of late RBs and see if you'll hit gold. You are more likely to hit gold on a late RB than Moreno being worth that 3rd rounder.

 

[Mr_Burns]

Alright, you all have successfully convinced me to pass on Moreno. I'll let you know how things shake out--the draft is Friday.

Thanks again for the input.

 

[Mr.Blonde]

And Moreno isn't good enough to even be considered a franchise running back (for fantasy). Stack up on stud WRs and then take a bunch of late RBs and see if you'll hit gold. You are more likely to his gold on a late RB than Moreno being worth that 3rd rounder.

This is quality advise right here.
Take a Felix Jones, Jahvid Best, Arian Foster and load up on WR's.,

 

[Mr_Burns]

Here's how my team ended up:

QB:
Aaron Rodgers
Matt Leinart

RB:
Ahmad Bradshaw
CJ Spiller
Donald Brown
Justin Forsett
Laurence Maroney
Chester Taylor
James Harrison
Correll Buckhalter

WR:
Randy Moss
Brandon Marshall
Wes Welker
Vincent Jackson
Brian Hartline

TE:
Kellen Winslow

My thought is that I have enough mid-tier RBs that a couple should hopefully pan out. The guy sitting next to me at the draft took Moreno in the 3rd round with the 27th overall pick. I told him he was a dumbass for even thinking Moreno was worth taking in the 3rd round. (Not really )

 

[jwinslow]

Keeper advice?

I get two. Who do I keep along with D Williams?

Gore is a stud, but a first is tough to give up. Of course, I'm unlikely to find anyone close to him with that pick.

Romo is a stud, but will probably cost me a 3rd since DeAngelo is also a 4.
Frank Gore 1
Anquan Boldin 3
Tony Romo 4
Tony Gonzales 5
Santonio Holmes 8
DeAngelo Williams 4
Roddy White 5
Donovan McNabb 10
Chester Taylor 12
Brett Favre 14
Mario Manningham 16
Robert Meachem 13
Steve Slaton 7

 

[Piney]

Here's how my team ended up:

QB:
Aaron Rodgers
Matt Leinart

RB:
Ahmad Bradshaw
CJ Spiller
Donald Brown
Justin Forsett
Laurence Maroney
Chester Taylor
James Harrison
Correll Buckhalter

WR:
Randy Moss
Brandon Marshall
Wes Welker
Vincent Jackson
Brian Hartline

TE:
Kellen Winslow

My thought is that I have enough mid-tier RBs that a couple should hopefully pan out. The guy sitting next to me at the draft took Moreno in the 3rd round with the 27th overall pick. I told him he was a dumbass for even thinking Moreno was worth taking in the 3rd round. (Not really )

Really like the look of that team. You found alot of potential with your RBs. Spiller & Forsett are awesome for what you need, upside guys. Plus you have a nice stable of WRs. Another plus is you have the type of RBs that you wouldn't mind dropping to pick up a RB that comes out of nowhere.

 

[Piney]

Keeper advice?

I get two. Who do I keep along with D Williams?

Gore is a stud, but a first is tough to give up. Of course, I'm unlikely to find anyone close to him with that pick.

Romo is a stud, but will probably cost me a 3rd since DeAngelo is also a 4.
Frank Gore 1
Anquan Boldin 3
Tony Romo 4
Tony Gonzales 5
Santonio Holmes 8
DeAngelo Williams 4
Roddy White 5
Donovan McNabb 10
Chester Taylor 12
Brett Favre 14
Mario Manningham 16
Robert Meachem 13
Steve Slaton 7

It is all about replacement value. But really I don't like many of your keeper options. (If only Slaton wasn't hurt, eh?)

So it comes down to Gore & Romo. If you throw Romo back what QB would you be able to grab? versus what would you be able to grab with that 1st rounder? (not necessarily a RB, but maybe a stud WR?)

Heck, you could be crazy and keep Boldin but that is a little bit more of a risk.