Does Home Field Make a Difference?

[Wingate1217]

After viewing another thread a the ensuing discussion regarding whether an alleged home field advantage gave one team (read conference) over another I decided it would be fun to see if the results of bowl games tipped the argument in favor of one way or another.

I looked at the four major bowls (Rose, Sugar, Orange, Sugar) since 1980 and the BCS Championship from 2007 onward. I considered the home team if it was playing within its own state or within 250-300 miles of its campus as the home team. For example if OSU was playing in Pittsburgh, Detroit, or Indy it would have been considered a home game for OSU. If neither team fit that criteria the field was considered neutral. I considered the team's affiliation to be the same as today, so Penn State in the 1980's was considered a member of the Big Ten. If two teams were from the same conference I didn't factor them into the study.

Overall the "home team" won 62.5% of the games while the visitors won 37.5%, and of course the neutral field split at 50-50....

As for the conferences as the Home Team

PAC 10 won 66.7% of their games
SEC 62.5%
ACC 58.3%

Those same conferences as the away team or on a neutral field did not fare as well.

PAC 10 Away (Never has played as the away team) Neutral (50%)
SEC Away (Never) Neutral (48%)
ACC Away (33.3%) Neutral (42.9%)

So you can see through the numbers that there appears to be disparity between when the conferences go from the "home team" to either the "away team" or to a neutral field.

Next I will work on away and neutral win percentages for The Big Ten, Big 12 and the Big East to see if there exists any disadvantage as the away team as opposed to being on a neutral field.

 

[Nutriaitch]

Those same conferences as the away team or on a neutral field did not fare as well.

PAC 10 Away (Never has played as the away team)
SEC Away (Never)

how many away games have the other conferences played? (i'm sure the Big 10 leads the way having to play USC in the rose every year.

because with a radius of 300 miles, you're really limiting each bowl to only 2 possible "home" teams.

"Home" teams for Bowls

Rose Bowl
USC & UCLA (Cal, Stanford, but they're still a good hike from L.A.)

Fiesta Bowl
Arizona & Arizona St (unlikely since no conference tie to this bowl)

Sugar
LSU, Miss St, and Bama

Orange
Miami & South Florida (Florida sits right out of 300 miles, and Florida St.)

 

[Gatorubet]

Next I will work on away and neutral win percentages for The Big Ten, Big 12 and the Big East to see if there exists any disadvantage as the away team as opposed to being on a neutral field.

Everybody schedules cupcakes at home, so of course the home teams will always have a better winning percentage that away teams.

 

[Nutriaitch]

Everybody schedules cupcakes at home, so of course the home teams will always have a better winning percentage that away teams.

did you just ignore the part where he said BOWL GAMES?

 

[Wingate1217]

The percentages for the Big 12, Big 10 and Big East are as follows:

Big 12 Away (43.8%) Neutral Field (43.3%)
Big East Away (33.3%) Neutral (46.2%)
Big Ten Away (33.3%) Neutral (69.2%)

All three of these conferences have to travel to their bowl game (since I kept Miami in the ACC) and you see vast improvement in 2 out of 3 conferences going from playing "away" to playing on a neutral field. The Big Ten made the biggest jump (over 35 percentage points) and it could be explained by the conferences penchant for playing great USC teams in the Rose Bowl the last few years......

Having written all things the SEC's totals were skewed somewhat by going back to 1980. I would wager that the away-home-neutral field discrepancy they have in the study would be vastly smaller if we just looked at the last decade (especially the last 5 years).....

 

[Gatorubet]

did you just ignore the part where he said BOWL GAMES?

Yes I did.

Now I'm gonna ignore it because under his review the SEC's Sugar Bowl representative can never have an away game. Hell, there were more Bearcats in the stands than Gators and the best that gets us is to call it an even neutral game

And shouldn't you be outside fixing your water line instead of pointing out my obvious reading comprehension problems??

 

[jwinslow]

Are you still trying to sell bearcats-gators as a typical fan representation for the Sugar Bowl?

 

[Nutriaitch]

Yes I did.

Now I'm gonna ignore it because under his review the SEC's Sugar Bowl representative can never have an away game.

nor can the Pac-10's Rose Bowl rep

Hell, there were more Bearcats in the stands than Gators and the best that gets us is to call it an even neutral game

y'all got out traveled by Cincy?!!? to New Orleans?!!?
how embarrassing

And shouldn't you be outside fixing your water line instead of pointing out my obvious reading comprehension problems??

nah, i still got my outhouse

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

It's an interesting study, but I'm not sure how much to make of it. I mean, the 2002 Fiesta Bowl was pretty friendly confines even though your study would make it a "Neutral" game.

Attendance data by school would be informative, but I can't imagine there's a way to get that info.

 

[Muck]

Overall the "home team" won 62.5% of the games while the visitors won 37.5%,

Well that's kind of a given isn't it?

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

So basically you are saying the the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers won all those Super Bowls because they play better in cold weather....

 

[cincibuck]

The percentages for the Big 12, Big 10 and Big East are as follows:

Big 12 Away (43.8%) Neutral Field (43.3%)
Big East Away (33.3%) Neutral (46.2%)
Big Ten Away (33.3%) Neutral (69.2%)

All three of these conferences have to travel to their bowl game (since I kept Miami in the ACC) and you see vast improvement in 2 out of 3 conferences going from playing "away" to playing on a neutral field. The Big Ten made the biggest jump (over 35 percentage points) and it could be explained by the conferences penchant for playing great USC teams in the Rose Bowl the last few years......

Having written all things the SEC's totals were skewed somewhat by going back to 1980. I would wager that the away-home-neutral field discrepancy they have in the study would be vastly smaller if we just looked at the last decade (especially the last 5 years).....

WTF is a neutral field? If you call Florida playing OSU in AZ a neutral game, or Florida v. OSU in the Rose I agree. If you call Florida playing OSU in NO, ATL, Miami, Jacksonville, Orlando, Dallas or Memphis, I disagree. Likewise, if this had been Alabama playing USC or any other Pac 10 team in the Rose Bowl, or the Emerald bowl or the Fiesta I would agree that 'bama was at a disadvantage fan wise.

As far as I'm concerned the best the Big 10 can hope for is a neutral field and neutral implies that the other team ALSO is playing out of it's region. For Da U that means anything more than 25 miles away from the Fountainbleu.

 

[Gatorubet]

Are you still trying to sell bearcats-gators as a typical fan representation for the Sugar Bowl?

No. See the absence of the phrase "typical fan representation for the Sugar Bowl"

Point is that there are many factors that go into who is favored in a game and why. For example, who is favored. If a favored team wins, then the fact that it is in X state or Y state is not so damn important, but rather that team A is better than team B. It seems like you need to incorporate whether the home/away status affected the outcome with the favored team status factored in...

Actually, Wingate is doing some great stuff, and I should be giving him rep instead of a hard time. But I'm still in battle mode, me versus the world vis-a-vie all things SEC. If only Nutria would have backed me I could have been more reasonable, but with him no showing and Woof bailing, I had to get what Josie Wales calls "Mad Dog mean"

 

[Gatorubet]

Well that's kind of a given isn't it?

I don't know what you've been drinking the last couple of weeks Muck, but it agrees with you. You've been cracking me up.

 

[Buckeye doc]

The argument is not only about the crowd at the venue. I know you're not that obtuse, Gator (unless you'd like to debate that point :)).