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Coronavirus (COVID-19) is too exciting for adults to discuss (CLOSED)

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ScriptOhio said:
I'm for it:

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:slappy:
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Build it around *ichigan and then fill it with water.
 
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sparcboxbuck said:
Thats going to wipe out 20% of their population.
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I don’t know about that estimate, but given population density, mediocre at best sanitation, likely poor health in many due to poverty, overwork, malnutrition, air pollution, etc., and a limited health care system, it will be a huge number if it breaks out. Hell, a 1% death rate with a 10% infection rate would be 1.3 million and both of those numbers feel optimistic.

lvbuckeye said:
that's because they all stand right next to each other and beat their heads against the wall.
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I don’t know about the beating of heads against the wall, but the standing next to each other is the point: Contrary to the “everybody’s already had it” position you’ve espoused, proximity to others seems to matter. Therefore, the virus is likely both less contagious and more dangerous when contracted than you’ve argued, which supports social distancing. Whether we’ve gone too far with it too fast and should have done more asking and less telling with respect to it are legitimate questions, but it is likely, in general, a reasonable public health approach.
 
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Jagdaddy said:
I don’t know about that estimate, but given population density, mediocre at best sanitation, likely poor health in many due to poverty, overwork, malnutrition, air pollution, etc., and a limited health care system, it will be a huge number if it breaks out. Hell, a 1% death rate with a 10% infection rate would be 1.3 million and both of this numbers feel optimistic.
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I’m hardly in a position to say with authority, but I suspect that the infection rate is higher than we realize and that it is more likely to have airborne transmission than is being suggested. Given population density in India I think that the infection rate of 10% is pretty conservative. I’d also suggest that the 1% mortality rate is also likely conservative given the contributing factors you identified.

This disease is going to be the equivalent of an afterburner churning through jet fuel. This will not be kind to India.
 
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sparcboxbuck said:
I’m hardly in a position to say with authority, but I suspect that the infection rate is higher than we realize and that it is more likely to have airborne transmission than is being suggested. Given population density in India I think that the infection rate of 10% is pretty conservative. I’d also suggest that the 1% mortality rate is also likely conservative given the contributing factors you identified.

This is a disease is going to be the equivalent of an afterburner churning through jet fuel. This will not be kind to India.
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I went conservative to show that with such a huge population base, even a conservative guess yields pretty horrific results. Part of why I went low on the death rate is that I still don’t have a real idea of the ratio of actual cases to verified cases. I’d expect more like 5% or more of verified cases in India to end in death.
 
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Jagdaddy said:
I went conservative to show that with such a huge population base, even a conservative guess yields pretty horrific results. Part of why I went low on the death rate is that I still don’t have a real idea of the ratio of actual cases to verified cases. I’d expect more like 5% or more of verified cases in India to end in death.
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Sadly, I think that’s a pretty fair projection. Perhaps even on the conservative end of fair. When considering the common elements of the geographies with high mortality you find age, population density, incidence of smoking and air pollution. Pretty much all those boxes checked in India with the kicker of general health of the population you added (malnutrition, state of healthcare, etc.). Mortality rates could easily be argued to be in excess of Italy and China.
 
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