Coronavirus (COVID-19) is too exciting for adults to discuss (CLOSED)

[AKAK]

If it goes more than 2-3 weeks (lockdowns) I don't see how we can avoid this basic conflict.

I think it's important to remember that "flattening the curve" doesn't mean they are saving anyone in the older age group. It means they are trying to delay the inevitable just long enough not to swamp the medical system and kill a bunch of people currently sick from something else.

Three groups here really; 1) the financially at risk, 2) the potentially at risk if health care system is swamped and 3) the at risk group from CVID-19

#3 is in trouble no matter what.
#2 is a complete unknown as to extent/duration etc
#1 is the group being consciously harmed

Seems to me like they are working the problem backwards. Logic tells me to save #1, take chances with #2 and say goodbye to #3.

So, here's where it all gets sticky...

Its really #2 plus #3 that's the problem - because #2 and #3 are the same thing.

Even if you're over 80, you're more likely to die from pneumonia in that age group (I don't have a citation here, but we can call that 30% or so)

If you have no pre-existing condition, the fatality rate is less than 1% -- as much as we keep talking about old people, its not really what's going on, the older you are the more likely you are to have co-morbidity.

AGE

DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old

14.8%

70-79 years old

8.0%

60-69 years old

3.6%

50-59 years old

1.3%

40-49 years old

0.4%

30-39 years old

0.2%

20-29 years old

0.2%

10-19 years old

0.2%

0-9 years old

no fatalities


PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%

 

[heisman]

Updated stats...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

[Jaxbuck]

So, here's where it all gets sticky...

Its really #2 plus #3 that's the problem - because #2 and #3 are the same thing.

Even if you're over 80, you're more likely to die from pneumonia in that age group (I don't have a citation here, but we can call that 30% or so)

If you have no pre-existing condition, the fatality rate is less than 1% -- as much as we keep talking about old people, its not really what's going on, the older you are the more likely you are to have co-morbidity.

AGE

DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old

14.8%

70-79 years old

8.0%

60-69 years old

3.6%

50-59 years old

1.3%

40-49 years old

0.4%

30-39 years old

0.2%

20-29 years old

0.2%

10-19 years old

0.2%

0-9 years old

no fatalities


PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%

Nature is trying to cull the herd of sick people. Amazing.

I don't pretend to have a great answer for this but I am pretty confident the theorizing has a short shelf life. A decision point is barreling toward us.

 

[AKAK]

Nature is trying to cull the herd of sick people. Amazing.

I don't pretend to have a great answer for this but I am pretty confident the theorizing has a short shelf life. A decision point is barreling toward us.

Well, yeah, and the other thing here is... sure you need to flatten the curve, but you also need to raise the line. (But we've talked about that too)

You cut everyone a check for a grand a month for the next 3 months?

Trillion bucks. Don't blow it at the titty bar.

 

[exhawg]

Part of me understands why you quarantine everyone to try to snuff out the virus, but given the low death rate for young healthy people it seems like it would be better to quarantine high risk people for longer and let the virus work it's way through the rest of us that probably won't have anything worse than cold symptoms.

 

[Hstead]

Hindsight is always 20/20 and we will see the results of decisions being made. Maybe I am wrong, but I feel pretty strongly there has been an overreaction that is going to devastate the economy beyond imaginable. People are not going to be able to make their car payments, rent, or mortgages. Good luck banks.

It will end. We will see if these politicians racing to "Care the most" are making the right choices.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

Part of me understands why you quarantine everyone to try to snuff out the virus, but given the low death rate for young healthy people it seems like it would be better to quarantine high risk people for longer and let the virus work it's way through the rest of us that probably won't have anything worse than cold symptoms.

And, you know what happens when you survive a viral infection? Well, your body makes antibodies against the thing that infected you. Consequently, the next time it comes around, you have your own biological resistance upon which to rely. As I understand it, the reason why this particular virus is having as much success as it is has little to do with mortality and very much to do with it being "new"

 

[buckeyebri]

Hindsight is always 20/20 and we will see the results of decisions being made. Maybe I am wrong, but I feel pretty strongly there has been an overreaction that is going to devastate the economy beyond imaginable. People are not going to be able to make their car payments, rent, or mortgages. Good luck banks.

It will end. We will see if these politicians racing to "Care the most" are making the right choices.

Seeing a lot of anger out there against the government and how this is going to impact small businesses and the middle class. Maybe this’ll be the start of the revolution....

 

[Bucklion]

And, you know what happens when you survive a viral infection? Well, your body makes antibodies against the thing that infected you. Consequently, the next time it comes around, you have your own biological resistance upon which to rely. As I understand it, the reason why this particular virus is having as much success as it is has little to do with mortality and very much to do with it being "new"

Not to mention that the flu is always fucking us because it is always mutating...COVID May or May not do that, but it is a real possibility

 

[AKAK]

Seeing a lot of anger out there against the government and how this is going to impact small businesses and the middle class. Maybe this’ll be the start of the revolution....

Which Revolution is that, exactly?

The reason there's never a revolution is, there's nothing on the other side. Burning it all down doesn't get you something good on its own. Obviously that "more authoritarianism" thing isn't working out all that well for some folks.

 

[AKAK]

Not to mention that the flu is always fucking us because it is always mutating...COVID May or May not do that, but it is a real possibility

Well, I mean it will... will it be worse or not is another thing entirely. I mean this one already is SARS 2 (electric boogaloo), isn't it?

(PS, if it mutates, its still Wuhan Virus to me)

 

[Dryden]

Part of me understands why you quarantine everyone to try to snuff out the virus, but given the low death rate for young healthy people it seems like it would be better to quarantine high risk people for longer and let the virus work it's way through the rest of us that probably won't have anything worse than cold symptoms.

Young healthy people still wind up in the ICU with this. The Chinese doctor that blew the whistle on this started coughing on Jan 10. He was in ICU Jan 13. He died Feb 7. That's a long, long time for a healthy 34 year old male to occupy one bed and respirator.

A po-dunk county hospital like we have here in Fairfield County will be swamped with just 10 cases of this.

 

[Best Buckeye]

Need Toilet paper?

 

[NJ-Buckeye]

In S Korea
A church congregation came up with an answer... when they came up for the host, they were sprayed with a salt water solution they determined was a cure
but never cleaned the sprayer.. which became infected with corona... and now almost the entire congregation is positive

 

[AKAK]

Young healthy people still wind up in the ICU with this. The Chinese doctor that blew the whistle on this started coughing on Jan 10. He was in ICU Jan 13. He died Feb 7. That's a long, long time for a healthy 34 year old male to occupy one bed and respirator.

A po-dunk county hospital like we have here in Fairfield County will be swamped with just 10 cases of this.

Well, at Italy's infection rate of 400 people per million, you got like 150K in fairfield county, that gets you 60 cases, at a 20% hospitalization rate, that's 12.

Cordon off Pickerington like those weirdos deserve, you'll probably be fine.