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Coronavirus (COVID-19) is too exciting for adults to discuss (CLOSED)

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lvbuckeye said:
How many of those dead ONLY had coronavirus and not COPD, emphysema, lung cancer, asthma, or any combination of them?
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Well between being old and weak, they... had it coming and it's unfair to count them? :sad:

Or do you have a less callous point to make here given asthma making the list of pre-existing qualifications to be deaths without asterisks?

How about all of the non weak, non olds that end up in the hospital for awhile and possibly lose lung function? Where do they fit into the talking points?

I think the mortality rate is much lower than recorded. I think too many on both sides are ignoring the tidal wave of the medium cases that's coming for ALL ages.
 
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ORD_Buckeye said:
At the end of the day, nobody knows what course this is going to run. The CDC's worst case scenario projects over 1.5M dead. Yes, that's the worst case scenario, but doesn't that behoove (love that word, and so rarely get to use it in a sentence) us to maybe err on the side of caution for a few weeks or even a couple of months.
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I completely agree. But where is the line between personal choice and martial law? This isn’t China, and I don’t ever want it to be. Yes?
 
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The US media is absolutely playing this pandemic for clicks and revenue. I was one of the first people in the world to get Swine Flu, thanks to Chinese sailors staying at the same hotel. I was put into a 4-bed isolation ward and watched the other three die that night. I am in the high risk category. Over 60 and with probable lung lesions from that experience. I also am married to a pathologist who held a post at Harvard Medical School for more than a decade.

You are going to get this novel coronavirus. For most of you, it will be as mild as it is for Tom Hanks. My daughter is in Medical School and doing clinical rounds. Two of her peers have tested positive. They are having that experience.

Americans have several high risk factors. Over 60. High levels of obesity. Lack of exercise. And a national government that has tried to ignore things, losing at least 6 weeks. However, leading scientists here (many of whom have trained or collaborated with leading American scientists) are more than angry about the press coverage in America, as some of it gets here through Fox and CNN. A leading epidemiologist told a Wits Medical School audience in Johannesburg that he and his colleagues were "enraged" at the falsehoods and lies emanating from the US.

History-of-Pandemics-Deadliest-1-scaled.jpg


This thing is nothing like MERS or SARS and it is not Swine Flu. Those quoted figures about 20x the flue are complete nonsense because we do not have a representative sample. Many people who have the novel coronavirus do not have any symptoms at all.

  • Wearing a medical mask will not help as much as some people think. This is NOT an airborne virus. If you are more than one yard away from someone who coughs, you should be fine. The mask will keep you from touching your face and protect others from you if you are coughing.
  • Wash your hands for 20 seconds frequently during the day, if you touch things. It is MORE effective than hand sanitizer.
  • Do not touch your face. If you can't stop yourself, wear a bloody mask.
  • Stay out of large crowds. Not because it's in the air, because it's on the handrails, the seats, etc.
  • Leave your shoes at the door. Wash your hands and change your clothes when you come home. Disinfect surfaces where people touch things. Make your house a safe place.
  • And try to get yourself in better shape by losing weight and getting cardiovascular exercise for at least 20 mins a day.
This too shall pass. Keep a positive outlook. And turn off the bloody cable news channels.
 
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ORD_Buckeye said:
At the end of the day, nobody knows what course this is going to run. The CDC's worst case scenario projects over 1.5M dead. Yes, that's the worst case scenario, but doesn't that behoove (love that word, and so rarely get to use it in a sentence) us to maybe err on the side of caution for a few weeks or even a couple of months.
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As much as I hate govt intervening, DeWine gets an A+ thus far in my opinion.
 
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heisman said:
I completely agree. But where is the line between personal choice and martial law? This isn’t China, and I don’t ever want it to be. Yes?
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Is there a scenario where society stops gleefully spreading the pandemic without drastic steps? I think the answer is clearly no. And I say that as a small business owner that is going to get destroyed if this persists.
 
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sparcboxbuck said:
Disclosure: I neither think the situation is as dire as some, nor do I think it’s something that we should be blowing off. I do think that this is a situation that needs to be actively managed.

That said, as with almost any lies, damn lies and statistics example, those raw numbers do not take into account two of the most significant covariates in predicting related mortality. Namely, age and environmental toxins individuals are being exposed to (from pollution to smoking / vaping).

People who are younger and / or have CV systems that are more robust or able to rebound are less likely to be impacted. Among those groups, mortality is similar to a bad flu and less than other outbreaks we’ve seen in our lifetime.

Contrast that with those who are older and live in areas of high pollution or are smoking or worse yet vaping and you see astronomically higher associated mortality.

What is common among those areas where mortality rates are so high? Age, pollution and incidence of smoking / vaping. And another covariate in there is that areas with high pollution are also high population density areas which lead to faster spread of the virus.

Moreover, given the younger / stronger may actually be infected and asymptomatic they may never get tested (and good luck getting tested in the US without paying out of pocket right now) which deflates the denominator in the mortality rate. Given that same group is disproportionately less likely to go tits up, the impact yields what may be an artificially high mortality rate as clearly anyone in the numerator must be included in the denominator.

What this boils down to is the fact that the numbers from other countries may _not_ be a good indication of what is or will happen here. It does, however, mean that in consideration of the differentiation of drivers of mortality, combined with what we know about incubation and methods of how it is spread, regional level management based on best knowledge is in order — perhaps managed at a national level. This could mean anything from what we saw done in China (perhaps the best method for stopping so far) to a more US acceptable (not judging, just saying) method of social distancing to elongate the infection curve is the best chances we have to minimize overall mortality in the states.

Net, net... if you’re young and strong and you don’t smoke and live in areas of high pollution you’ve got a good chance of coming out the other side of this with a (personal) worst case of a really bad cold / flu if you do not take measures to minimize chances of catching and spreading.

If you are older, have any comorbidity / live in areas with high pollution / have made questionable decisions regarding your CV system... you’re best off alone on a desert island waiting it out.

If you’re young and strong and not doing your part to limit contact with those in high risk populations, not washing your hands religiously, exercising good hygiene, etc... you or someone like you could easily carry and infect someone who is far less physically fortunate.

I’ve personally been on two flights this week and all travel for at least a couple weeks is shut down. That said, because I’ve been on flight and a couple of major airports (DFW and ORD) I will be avoiding situations where I could come in contact with anyone who is likely in compromised health or a high risk demographic for at least two weeks. Bottom line, I feel fine and I’m pretty sure I am not carrying the virus... but I’m also going to make sure that until clear of the incubation period I don’t kiss my mom.

Stay healthy everyone.
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Please explain.
 
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heisman said:
That’s.....my point. Are you scared of the flu despite limited progress in curtailing for hundreds of years? They will have a vaccine for Covid-19 before we ever enter flu like numbers. Also, the flu kills healthy young people all the time. This thing, not so much. Average age of death is 81 as of yesterday.
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I'm not entirely scared of the thing I know vs the thing nobody knows about yet, no.
 
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jwinslow said:
Well between being old and weak, they... had it coming and it's unfair to count them? :sad:

Or do you have a less callous point to make here given asthma making the list of pre-existing qualifications to be deaths without asterisks?

How about all of the non weak, non olds that end up in the hospital for awhile and possibly lose lung function? Where do they fit into the talking points?

I think the mortality rate is much lower than recorded. I think too many on both sides are ignoring the tidal wave of the medium cases that's coming for ALL ages.
Click to expand...


This is going to be an issue and I hedged at that point above. The young / strong and asymptomatic who spread will yield a number of cases that become symptomatic among that demographic. With current testing procedures right now, this could actually cause further spreading. That is, in order to be tested and diagnosed you have to have recently traveled to a hot spot or have had contact with someone who _was_ diagnosed positive.

Those who are in low risk groups that end up carrying / contracting will likely _not_ be tested and diagnosed before entering the heal care system for treatment of their symptoms... and at that is an area where the current process have a gaping hole... and like or not, why China’s method for handling this actually has the benefit of the greater good in mind.

Second sentence bolded: Yup... there’s likely going to be a LOT of people who carry / contract that are very mild or asymptomatic that never get included in the statistics. I sure as heck don’t get included in the incidence rates for common colds in the US on a yearly basis because I never receive a diagnosis. Same here.
 
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I would like to see if someone could put together a rough percentage of Americans who are at risk for fatality and what percentage are likely just carriers/slightly ill.

I wonder aloud because I can do a basic search and find that 17% of Americans are 65 and older. Then you throw in the diabetics and other high risk groups and I wonder how close to 50% we are getting?

As Malthusian as this sounds; you can't ignore the impact this is going to have on the younger, not at risk group in terms of tanking the economy via lockdowns.

Numbers I do know, or can find easily online;
78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck
44% of all workers are "low wage" (less than 18K a year)
59% of all workers are paid hourly


So without specific numbers to go by, common sense tells me small business owners and their employees are going to get killed by this financially and that does indeed have long term negative implications to their health.

I'm just wondering aloud when and if we get to the point that decisions have to be made*? We can clearly see a crisis coming for our Western, Democratic open and free society. I think we can see a crisis coming in the form of choosing to financially ruin a huge segment of our population or take care (as best we know how right now) of our older loved ones.

*Decision making is not problem solving. Decisions are good/better/best outcomes, not all problems solved for all groups.


This is nuts.
 
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