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Coronavirus (COVID-19) is too exciting for adults to discuss (CLOSED)

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Bucklion said:
Anecdotally from physicians, the last part is not good, particularly for future immunity.
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On that topic, I’m seeing things popping up about anti-bodies (my words) vanishing from those who were positive at one point in time. Who really knows how much is accurate reporting — really, what have we seen that is trustworthy — and who knows how the immune system is processing this. But, if that’s true, it makes you wonder if we’ll all eventually require booster shots for any inoculation we end up receiving as a result of this.
 
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sparcboxbuck said:
On that topic, I’m seeing things popping up about anti-bodies (my words) vanishing from those who were positive at one point in time. Who really knows how much is accurate reporting — really, what have we seen that is trustworthy — and who knows how the immune system is processing this. But, if that’s true, it makes you wonder if we’ll all eventually require booster shots for any inoculation we end up receiving as a result of this.
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That is exactly the message I have been getting.
 
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BB73 said:
Good comments there, and I think that some of the "I told you so" vibe in some posts may relate more to the "I'm not going to let your post indicate that the political philosophy you support is the correct way to deal with this thing."

So while somebody accurately posts that the death rate in the US has been reduced from about 2000 per day to 600-800 per day, that's obviously good news. There are a variety of reasons for that: the number of new cases had decreased from the peak (yeah, I know it's going up now), we're doing a much better job of protecting the folks in nursing homes and assisted living communities, there are some treatments and medicines that have improved survival rates in ICU's, and currently a higher % of cases are among the younger population.

But some folks seeing the mention of reduced death rates won't allow that fact to be mentioned by itself, because they feel to do so could allow the implication that the country has been doing OK in dealing with this thing, and they believe that's far from the truth. They feel obligated to point out that other countries have had many less cases and/or deaths per capital than the good ol' USA. And there's a lot of data out there. Recent graphs can be found that show that the EU, which was hit a week or two before the USA, now has much lower new cases and death rates. But the EU overall does still have more deaths than the USA, so people can pick a stat they like to support their view.

The recent increase in cases is disappointing but not shocking to me. As a country, we have received confusing messages from the CDC, have had differing approaches among different states, generally have an overall rather individualistic outlook on things, and a fair amount of us reached "COVID fatigue" after several weeks of being told to stay at home while we watched the economy undergo its largest hit in at least 80 years.

I certainly don't believe we can go back to issuing stay at home orders. Hopefully people will practice social distancing and enough will wear masks to get the old R-naught number below 1, so cases can start winding down significantly.

The sad thing to me is that the country is now basically playing Whack-a-Mole as different areas take turns seeing increased numbers of cases. And that could continue for some time.
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Well written and covers just about everything. I'm guilty of paragraph two. As you know I've been graphing the death rates for over two months now. I'm not much concerned about any surge/spike in cases (yet) until I see a proportional surge/spike in the death death, which I don't yhink will happen...if there is a related increase in the death rate, we likely won't start seeing it until a week or after the start of the surge in cases.

You mention that "graphs can be found that show that the EU, which was hit a week or two before the USA, now has much lower new cases and death rates." I think there are two reasons for the disparity:
1) The US reports any death of a person who had COVID at the time of death as a COVID death, regardless if COVID was the main cause or even just a contributing factor. A person in hospice care who dies with COVID in his/her system "died of COVID" per the government. A car crash victim who is positive for COVID is treated as a COVID death. I'm not aware of any other country that does this.
2) EU countries have a suspiciously-low death rate. Germany has almost exactly a quarter of our population but had a grand total of nine deaths yesterday (Jun 25) while we had 649 (1.4% of our death tool). France, which has a population almost exactly 20% of ours, but had only 21 deaths on Jun 25 (3.2% of our death toll). Spain, with a popluation of almost 47,000,000 had grand total of three deaths yesterday. Are you fucking shitting me? And lastly, Italy, which was the initila hot bed in Europe, has a population of just over 60,000,000 and had 34 deaths yesterday. So, the four most-populous EU countries, which a combined population of over 256,000,000 (almost 78% of ours) had a grand total of 67 deaths (10.3% of ours). Conversely, brexited UK has a population of just over 21% of ours, yet had 149 deaths yesterday (23% of our death tool, and way over what Germany, France, Spain, and Italy combined had).
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
Well written and covers just about everything. I'm guilty of paragraph two. As you know I've been graphing the death rates for over two months now. I'm not much concerned about any surge/spike in cases (yet) until I see a proportional surge/spike in the death death, which I don't yhink will happen...if there is a related increase in the death rate, we likely won't start seeing it until a week or after the start of the surge in cases.

You mention that "graphs can be found that show that the EU, which was hit a week or two before the USA, now has much lower new cases and death rates." I think there are two reasons for the disparity:
1) The US reports any death of a person who had COVID at the time of death as a COVID death, regardless if COVID was the main cause or even just a contributing factor. A person in hospice care who dies with COVID in his/her system "died of COVID" per the government. A car crash victim who is positive for COVID is treated as a COVID death. I'm not aware of any other country that does this.
2) EU countries have a suspiciously-low death rate. Germany has almost exactly a quarter of our population but had a grand total of nine deaths yesterday (Jun 25) while we had 649 (1.4% of our death tool). France, which has a population almost exactly 20% of ours, but had only 21 deaths on Jun 25 (3.2% of our death toll). Spain, with a popluation of almost 47,000,000 had grand total of three deaths yesterday. Are you fucking shitting me? And lastly, Italy, which was the initila hot bed in Europe, has a population of just over 60,000,000 and had 34 deaths yesterday. So, the four most-populous EU countries, which a combined population of over 256,000,000 (almost 78% of ours) had a grand total of 67 deaths (10.3% of ours). Conversely, brexited UK has a population of just over 21% of ours, yet had 149 deaths yesterday (23% of our death tool, and way over what Germany, France, Spain, and Italy combined had).
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That’s been a big issue with comparing how one country is ‘handling’ things vs another. I think, at best, one can look at numbers over time within country but not across countries due to differences in reporting methodologies.

The common consumer of headlines (and that includes a lot of people who write the headlines) is completely uninformed of these differences. All they see is Germany kicking our asses.
 
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sparcboxbuck said:
That’s been a big issue with comparing how one country is ‘handling’ things vs another. I think, at best, one can look at numbers over time within country but not across countries due to differences in reporting methodologies.

The common consumer of headlines (and that includes a lot of people who write the headlines) is completely uninformed of these differences. All they see is Germany kicking our asses.
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Case in point. On April 2nd, Spain had 961 died from COVID. Less than three months later, they had eight people and three people die from COVID on consecutive days (June 25th and 26th)...that two-day total was just a smidge over 1% of the single-day total on Apr 2nd. Now does anyone in their right mind think that Spain has magically all-but-eradicated COVID from within its borders? Then again, their media could throw Spain in a panic since there was a dramatic 267% spike between June 25th and 26th..."Lock down the country again! We've gone from one death in every 15,583,000 persons to one in every 5,843,750!"


spain-covid-deaths.png
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
Case in point. On April 2nd, Spain had 961 died from COVID. Less than three months later, they had eight people and three people die from COVID on consecutive days (June 25th and 26th)...that two-day total was just a smidge over 1% of the single-day total on Apr 2nd. Now does anyone in their right mind think that Spain has magically all-but-eradicated COVID from within its borders? Then again, their media could throw Spain in a panic since there was a dramatic 267% spike between June 25th and 26th..."Lock down the country again! We've gone from one death in every 15,583,000 persons to one in every 5,843,750!"


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Spain hit a peak of new cases on 03/25 followed by a peak of new deaths a week later on 04/02. That puts their curve almost a full month ahead of ours, yet they only came out of a national state of emergency last Sunday. If anyone doesn't see a spike in deaths coming in a week from the record number of new cases and positive test rates throughout the spiking states, well I can't help you. It will probably be lower because older people do seem to be staying in and the current spread is more skewed towards the young than the beginning of the first wave in the Northeast, Michigan and Illinois, but it will come to some degree.

What we did is pretty much the equivalent of leaving a campsite with a quarter of the fire still burning confident that we'd done enough and the rest would die out on its own.
 
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As athletes and coaches around the country have rallied together to help those in need during the COVID-19 pandemic, so too have current and former Ohio State Buckeyes and members of the athletic department. Below, based on news and social media reports, is a recap of some of those involved, their actions and impact.
 
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ORD_Buckeye said:
Spain hit a peak of new cases on 03/25 followed by a peak of new deaths a week later on 04/02. That puts their curve almost a full month ahead of ours, yet they only came out of a national state of emergency last Sunday. If anyone doesn't see a spike in deaths coming in a week from the record number of new cases and positive test rates throughout the spiking states, well I can't help you. It will probably be lower because older people do seem to be staying in and the current spread is more skewed towards the young than the beginning of the first wave in the Northeast, Michigan and Illinois, but it will come to some degree.

What we did is pretty much the equivalent of leaving a campsite with a quarter of the fire still burning confident that we'd done enough and the rest would die out on its own.
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These numbers will be very interesting to watch. Like you said, we should expect a spike. How big the spike is, and this is the sucky part, will be determined by who was diagnosed (age / comorbidities) and how the virus has mutated.

Some of the research I’m seeing suggest that the virus is (my words) burning out in terms of lethality. This makes sense as the most lethal mutations are killing their hosts while the less lethal are more likely to spread.

What I hope to see, in a couple of weeks, is a comparison of lethality / death rates isolated to newly diagnosed cases using age and comorbidity as co-variates relative to similarly timed diagnosis to end of analytic window from much earlier in the pandemic.

Doing so would allow for a better understanding of if the lethality of the current mutations is similar to early on or if the mutations becoming less lethal hypothesis holds any water.

Thus far we should have little confidence in the government and media to provide such numbers — I don’t hold a lot of hope for them to help us. I do hope that there are medical researchers who are on this as it’s a pretty obvious analysis given the data being generated.
 
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ORD_Buckeye said:
If they did that with all eight FBS teams in Ohio (and you'd have to include coaches, trainers, equipment managers etc), you're consigning two to five people to death. In the absence of COVID would 2-5 players, coaches and staff of those programs die tragically and unexpectedly this year?
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Yes, but the likelihood that they would be the same as those infected is pretty small so it would likely be incremental deaths.
 
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ORD_Buckeye said:
Spain hit a peak of new cases on 03/25 followed by a peak of new deaths a week later on 04/02. That puts their curve almost a full month ahead of ours, yet they only came out of a national state of emergency last Sunday. If anyone doesn't see a spike in deaths coming in a week from the record number of new cases and positive test rates throughout the spiking states, well I can't help you. It will probably be lower because older people do seem to be staying in and the current spread is more skewed towards the young than the beginning of the first wave in the Northeast, Michigan and Illinois, but it will come to some degree.
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JFC, dude. The graph wasn't meant to show any comparison between their peak period and ours, but rather the ridiculous notion that deaths have actually dropped by a staggering 99%. Conversely, although our death rate has been plummeting, the case rate had been decreasing at a much lower rate, and has actually seen a jump over the last five days. So, explain to me how Spain has somehow reduced their death rate to virtually zero, going from a peak of almost a thousand a day to almost none, in less than three months.
 
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