It's the NBA. Things can change from quarter to quarter. Again, a split out there in the first two games would be a good thing for Cleveland.
The Cavs have no chance in this series if they don't split the first two games. That'd mean beating Golden State in four of the final five. Not happening.
The Cavs have two advantages over the Warriors: rebounding and turnovers. Golden State somehow won both of those battles tonight. To win this series Cleveland will have to beat GS in both of those statistical categories. Badly.
Overall, I hated the gameplan tonight. The Cavs need to slow offensive possessions down and set screens until they get a favorable matchup. Golden State was the best defensive team in the league this year, it's going to take all 24 seconds to break them down. Rushing down the court and launching into isolation offense isn't the way to win. If the Warriors score more than 110 in any game this series, they'll win, period.
Defensively, obviously the Cavs cannot give Durant open dunks, and they need to play physically. Foul on every possession. Golden State got away with murder tonight, so you may as well try to do the same.
Unsurprisingly, the bench gave the Cavs nothing. Deron Williams and Kyle Korver were both useless, and Richard Jefferson looks borderline unplayable. Most of the roster does, really. I'd like to see Derrick Williams and Frye in game 2, just to see if they can play. Because, aside from Shumpert, the rest of the bench we saw tonight cannot.
It was an ugly performance by the Cavs, but unfortunately, we may have to get used to this. Cleveland/GS will continue to meet in the Finals, and it will probably go a lot like this. And I'm trying to be a realist, not an alarmist. Mike Brown will be replaced by a better coach (Kerr or otherwise), and the Cavs (LeBron in particular) will only get older. The Cavs, meanwhile, don't have any cash or resources to upgrade the roster outside of an old ring chaser or an unproven young guy. The cap exploded and a 73-win team (one of the best teams of all time, like it or not) was able to add one of the three best players in the league. The system fucked up, and 29 teams (and LeBron's "legacy") are going to pay for that.
If the NBA wants this series to go beyond five games, they're going to need to lend a helping hand. The Cavs need to get every 50/50 call and then some. This Warriors team came together by accident, and they're going to be unstoppable for the foreseeable future. 16-0 will be a real possibility for them every postseason. This could be competitive inbalance like we've never seen in professional sports, and it's a damn shame.