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Cleveland Browns (2016 thread of unrelenting dumpster conflagration)

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exhawg said:
If the analytics said Bridgewater was the best QB in the class with Bortles and Carr also being good and Billy Football being a giant red flag waiting to flame out I'll go with the analytics. I would love to see what they had to say about the CB's of that class. For some reason football seems to be a harder sport for analytics than baseball.
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Not sure if serious or sarcasm on the bolded part.
 
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LitlBuck said:
This is starting to look like the last coach search:sad: I thought maybe this time it might be different but if they are interviewing a DB coach that is just nuts. I would think if they found someone that they liked they would hire him and call off the rest of the interviews but I am not sure what the hell they are doing.

After this year, I thought that Garrett might be in trouble down in Dallas.. There was a lot of speculation about him being the Browns coach years ago. He is originally from Cleveland Heights.
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Rooney rule....hate to be that cynical but it's the Browns....
 
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exhawg said:
Serious. IMO at least in relation to player scouting. I think there's more that goes into being a football player than numbers. i.e. How do you determine if Bosa is the next Watt rather than the next Clowney or God forbid Courtney Brown?
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This was the whole reason for a lot of laughs at saber metrics (moneyball) for football. If a CB gets gets beat, but its after 10 seconds and the QB scrambling how do you measure that. Its to much dependent on other people where as in baseball its pretty much individuals
 
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AuTX Buckeye said:
This was the whole reason for a lot of laughs at saber metrics (moneyball) for football. If a CB gets gets beat, but its after 10 seconds and the QB scrambling how do you measure that. Its to much dependent on other people where as in baseball its pretty much individuals
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Right, was his original point... football harder..
 
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exhawg said:
Serious. IMO at least in relation to player scouting. I think there's more that goes into being a football player than numbers. i.e. How do you determine if Bosa is the next Watt rather than the next Clowney or God forbid Courtney Brown?
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I think injuries play a much bigger role than analytics in football. As does "effort." If you look at Brown, he actually showed signs of being pretty good before injuries destroyed him. In fact, he was downright dominant in a few games during 2001 before getting hurt. Clowney has also had the injuries, but his "motor" has always been a question as well.
 
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AuTX Buckeye said:
This was the whole reason for a lot of laughs at saber metrics (moneyball) for football. If a CB gets gets beat, but its after 10 seconds and the QB scrambling how do you measure that. Its to much dependent on other people where as in baseball its pretty much individuals
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I haven't been exposed to sabermetrics or baseball player "value", but I would exclude, or minimize, outlier plays like you described.

I agree football is much more team dependent, but there's been an increase in advanced statistics for football team performance and next gen stats. Pay to play fantasy leagues were good at exploiting statistics and value.

I agree that variables in football not present in baseball cause analysis issues, but there's plenty of plays in baseball that don't need quantified to end up with useable data.

That said, the Browns will fuck this up.
 
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NFBuck said:
I think injuries play a much bigger role than analytics in football. As does "effort." If you look at Brown, he actually showed signs of being pretty good before injuries destroyed him. In fact, he was downright dominant in a few games during 2001 before getting hurt. Clowney has also had the injuries, but his "motor" has always been a question as well.
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Effort is one of those things that baseball can play itself out because you get this awesome sample size... its a different grind than football is, but, it probably works itself into the stats more naturally. But either way, if you could for example calculate Defensive tackles limiting runs to less than 4 ypc per 100 carries defended, or something, for a Linebacker... I think the effort will bear itself out in the stats.
 
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Poe McKnoe said:
I haven't been exposed to sabermetrics or baseball player "value", but I would exclude, or minimize, outlier plays like you described.

I agree football is much more team dependent, but there's been an increase in advanced statistics for football team performance and next gen stats. Pay to play fantasy leagues were good at exploiting statistics and value.

I agree that variables in football not present in baseball cause analysis issues, but there's plenty of plays in baseball that don't need quantified to end up with useable data.

That said, the Browns will fuck this up.
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I have a friend who played in the NFL. I once asked him why so many "five star" talents never make it in The League.

His response? "They're pussies."

Sabermetrics that.
 
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Big fan of baseball statistics. Always got the Bill James book even as a kid and would play the stats dice game APBA / Stratomatic. I actually made my own stats dice game on index cards one winter that ended up playing out fairly realistic. Big stats guy.

Never got into the advanced stats that much, but to me it just makes sense that getting on base is the most important offensive stat. I believe in the analytics but haven't bothered to look into them much.

Not sure how the analytics works in team sports like football.

Baseball is much more of an individual match up with the pitcher and batter.


If I were tasked with creating analytics for football, I don't think I would have the balls to grade players at first. Grading the value of draft picks as they already do is a good start. Grading the relative value of positions versus salaries, sure that makes sense. I just don't see how you grade the individual players to the point where you would gain an edge over a 'football man'.


I really think the genius to the Patriots is their draft strategy. They always have extra picks. They rarely have high first round picks that lock up salary on what could be a miss of a player like Johnny Football, not that he went high, say Justin Gilbert.

From a salary cap and risk versus return perspective, loading up on 2nd and 3rd rounders seems like the smartest play, but I am sure that is the job of the analytics guy to calculate and then Sashi or the GM to acquire.



One thing I don't want is a QB in round one for the next decade. I'm fine with bringing back McCown and another journeyman and spending my money and picks elsewhere. To me, I run this next Browns draft like I do fantasy football. I pick the lowest risk player in the pool of reasonable candidates. If I can drop down and reduce risk and add additional talent, I do that for sure.

I think having a low dollar QB and getting a little lucky there is key to turning the Browns around. Would love to draft a round 5 QB to develop like a Kirk Cousins, Brian Hoyer, or perhaps a Cardale Jones.
 
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