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Cleveland Browns (2016 thread of unrelenting dumpster conflagration)

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NFBuck said:
Lovie Smith just got canned. That surprises me. I thought he did a decent job this year given what he had to work with.
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Seriously got fired?! Wow.

I never thought he was particularly outstanding or impressed with him, but this year was actually a nice job. I don't see him as much worse than a Marvin Lewis type that can coach enough to get by, but never do anything above and beyond.
 
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AuTX Buckeye said:
This was the whole reason for a lot of laughs at saber metrics (moneyball) for football. If a CB gets gets beat, but its after 10 seconds and the QB scrambling how do you measure that. Its to much dependent on other people where as in baseball its pretty much individuals
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I think you just described how you quantify that. The problem is that to do this from scratch will take a lot of man hours.
- Define new array of statistics, many position-specific
- Hire a team of interns to pour over the all22 footage of every game in the last 5 years to collect those statistics
- Test the new statistics against measurable results on the field (score, yardage, first downs, field position) to confirm which ones are useful and which ones were bad guesses (this will also give you the relative strength of different statistics when you have a player that's strong in one area and weak in another)
- Iterate through the process several more times

My hope would be that he already has a lot of this down... but could also just be using Browns to work out the kinks.

The other area that I think will be difficult for analytics compared to baseball is strategy. There's not a whole lot of strategy in baseball. You get some tactical decisions between the pitcher, catcher, batter... a little shifting your defense for different batters... stealing bases... bunt/sac... substitutions... but compared to football, it's minimal.
Football offenses and defenses use a very large variety of schemes to adapt over the course of a game. The skill and competency of your Coordinators is no small factor - especially how fast they go through the decision making loop. You can have a chess board full of studs but if your Coordinator can't put them in position that will cost you at some point -- and vice versa.
If analytics wants to get really deep with football eventually they're going to need statistics for the coaching staff as well.
 
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From an article by George Diaz about the Bucs firing Lovie...any of this sound familiar?

The third coach in four seasons. Fifth coach in eight years. No continuity. No direction.

Go ahead and laugh. They are the Yucs. And it starts at the top with an ownership group that is keeps whiffing and is very impatient. And then there's this: ESPN reports that Smith got fired via phone. Assuming so, what a cowardly and low class move.

The Glazers have a lot of explaining to do.
 
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The sabremetrics thing is going to fail in an epic way. I think we can all see that coming.

I find it interesting that Haslam is so insecure in his grip on this franchise that he continually has to hire first-time head coaches rather than go with more established coaches who might have a chance in Hades of establishing something akin to a system.

Look at the history, other than the brief amount of time that Holmgren was with the team after this scumbag bought the franchise, no credible or established NFL person - be it as a head coach or executive - wants to touch this situation.

Nothing is going to change until Haslam is either in jail or sells the team.
 
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BIATCHabutuka said:
One thing I don't want is a QB in round one for the next decade. I'm fine with bringing back McCown and another journeyman and spending my money and picks elsewhere. To me, I run this next Browns draft like I do fantasy football. I pick the lowest risk player in the pool of reasonable candidates. If I can drop down and reduce risk and add additional talent, I do that for sure.

I think having a low dollar QB and getting a little lucky there is key to turning the Browns around. Would love to draft a round 5 QB to develop like a Kirk Cousins, Brian Hoyer, or perhaps a Cardale Jones.
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Eventually you have to take a shot at a QB. That said, be smart about it. What the Browns brass has done over the course of the past decade is attempt to see a player for more than he really is; I.E. Quinn, Weeden, Manziel and the poor soul I'm sure these dumbasses will take at #2 (Goff or Lynch)
 
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Buckeneye said:
It is highly debatable that members of previous regimes carried 'expertise'. Sure as hell didn't when it comes to the draft.
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Maybe I should have said "relative degree of expertise" within the confines of that organization. Clearly, nothing the Browns have done for years qualifies as a demonstration of actual expertise in the greater NFL world.
 
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OHSportsFan said:
Seriously got fired?! Wow.

I never thought he was particularly outstanding or impressed with him, but this year was actually a nice job. I don't see him as much worse than a Marvin Lewis type that can coach enough to get by, but never do anything above and beyond.
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The Browns haven't and probably won't hire anyone this time better than Lovie. Granted not the greatest coach, but could be a guy with the experience to help the get to respectability. Wait...what the hell am I saying....
 
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I've come around to the "fuck it, why not" camp on the new front office. What's the point in hiring more "football guys"? 70% of the franchises in the NFL suck, so what's the point in scouring their ranks for a different bunch of reheated turds? Might as well try something else.

If the football thing doesn't work out for them they might make one hell of a quiz bowl team at least.
 
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The Browns traded the poor bastard so he could finally play for a winner. Instead he's still surrounded by a bunch of fucking bums but now the rent on his apartment is about a million times higher than what it was in Cleveland.
 
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